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House Price Crash Forum


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About Yandros

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  1. I cringe at the amount of equity I'd see evaporate from our house, but then we could upsize to something positively palatial. My job would probaby be ok as we serve a pan-european client base, and I MIGHT still have a pension worth collecting if the markets survive. However, virtually everyone I work with who owns a house would be financially ruined.
  2. I'm not sure any of us want the scenario of house prices returning to 1998 levels. Speaking personally as a homeowner, I could cope, as we've massively overpaid our mortgage, and bought in 1999, but my god it would be economic armageddon! What would be the impact of that amount of unsecured lending by banks & building socs? Last time they started suggesting repayment schemes to clear the negative equity, but the scale this time is potentially so vast that surely most people would just opt for reposession and bankrupcy?
  3. They're already ahead of us...you really can't make this up!!!... Yvette Cooper on R4 Today program this morning "House prices are still 40% higher than they were 5 years ago"
  4. Actually there was a BIG surge in prices before 2004. I keep an eye on previous properties I've owned, as I know the area and their true 'worth'. The flats I watch made the biggest gains in 2001-2003 according to nethouseprices. If the market crashes to the extent where pre-2001 buyers (who haven't been idiots) are in trouble, I'd start stocking up on tinned food and digging a bunker. In our case it would take a 60% fall to return our house to the price we paid in 1999, and an 85% fall to put us into negative equity. But then we've been clearing our debts rather than buying plasma TVs and 4X4s. A 60% fall will hurt, because I can't convince my other 'alf to STR, so we'd take a massive drop in equity, but then our next bigger house becomes affordable, and her brother, trapped in rental hell, can get on the ladder.
  5. Oh that is so funny! Methinks somebody is losing their already tenuous grip on reality. I just have one thing to say... *SQUAAAAWK*
  6. It gets better. Some report claimed that they also want to BAN household non eco-friendly household goods, such as plasma TVs and high powered home computers :angry: So whatever looney think tank came up with that brainwave has just lost them the geek vote overnight. Nice one lads. As a computer using home cinema fan, he certainly just lost my vote if it's true.
  7. In your original post, you suggest that an undersupply of housing has underpinned HPI. ie "In a nut shell 1) massive under supply of housing over the last 30 years 2) This has underpinned recent HPI" Eddie George says that he stimulated consumer spending to levels "which couldn't possibly be sustained into the medium and long term", and "that pushed up house prices". I don't don't that undersupply isn't playing some part, but it's interesting that it suddenly comes to the fore now that the affordability crutch has been kicked away. Incidentally, all these people living in rented accomodation - why do you need to build a house for them? What's to stop a landlord just buying that one too?
  8. Wow! Could that reply be any more patronising? Maybe we now know what Patricia Hewitt has been doing since she was fired Yes I have heard of Kate Barker. Have you heard of Eddie George? Who is Eddie George? He is the former governer of the Bank of England, who left this position in June 2003 after 10 years, and after presiding over the worst phase of the current house price bubble. Now please don't be offended by this remark, but I think he probably knows a little bit more about economics than Kate Barker and what did he say? "We only had two alternative ways of sustaining demand and keeping the economy moving forward: One was public spending and the other was consumption. We knew that we were having to stimulate consumer spending; we knew we had pushed it up to levels which couldn't possibly be sustained into the medium and long term. But for the time being, if we had not done that the UK economy would have gone into recession just as has the United States. That pushed up house prices, it increased household debt ... my legacy to the MPC if you like has been `sort that out'. We tried very hard not to do more than we needed to keep within the inflation target limits but we knew that that was going to cause problems later on which are still with us." Over to you...
  9. Exactly. Someone on a good fixed rate deal will get significantly more interest on a cash ISA. With our base rate tracker mortgage an ISA is marginally worse, so we opt for overpay. With £1200 disposable, maxing out an ISA is probably sensible. Oh, and I don't wish to be boring, but consider your pension contributions as well, as although they're not exactly fashionable, they're also highly tax efficient of course.
  10. Give the man a cigar As it happens, using the rental income as measure of the 'real' value of a property is fairly standard, but it's nice to see someone indepedently think "hang on a minute!!!...." I wish a few more people would have this 'The emperor has no clothes' revelation. To use an example from my neck of the woods - 2 bed flat....purchase price £167K. So a repayment mortgage of about £1050, or IO of £800. An identical flat can be rented for £675. This suggests that a more realistic value should be circa £110K
  11. Very true. RealistBear seems to be able to spin ANYTHING into a trigger for a HPC. According to him, the crash began in Q2 2007 Dollar rises...HPC! Dollar falls...HPC! Same for gold, stocks - anything. He's not the only one, and it makes this site look pretty ridiculous at times.
  12. What a silly comment to make. What's your point? Are you saying that mortgages are bad? Perhaps you're advocating that we all rent for 25 years while saving, then buy our first house for our retirement? Or are you just being pedantic ?
  13. Bear here. Bought a flat in 1991, a small house in 1994, and our current house in 1999. Got caught out in the last crash to the tune of £30K of negative equity and don't intend to repeat the mistake thanks. Mortgage in 1999 was £90K. We remortgaged about 3 years ago onto a fully flexible product, allowing us to overpay, take payment holidays etc. Due to substantial overpayment, we've knocked it down to £56K, and are currently overpaying by £600/month+lump sums. We'll be mortgage free in 36 months at the current rate. Given your disposable income, it's a no brainer. Keep a slush fund of a few thousand in a high interest account for emergencies, and then take every penny you can of that mortgage. There's really nothing else you can do with your money that's more interest rate/tax efficient. Either look at it as reducing your debt or saving for your next house.
  14. I think there is genuinely a trend of kids staying with parents longer (don't want to rent as it's 'dead money'), but you're quite right, rents are pretty static. I'm also failing to see the vast numbers of homeless people we surely must have if we're that short of accomodation We have a shortage of houses for FTBs because new builds are being snapped up by BTLers. I heard a news item only a few weeks ago about a seaside town that had built a housing estate to solve the housing supply problem. Virtually all of them were bought up by property speculators and out-of-towners. The spokeswoman for the local council was despairing - if my memory is correct, a while after construction this entire estate had increased the population of the local school by ONE CHILD!!!!!
  15. Nah, just some bull who's £500K in debt and possibly getting nervous
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