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  1. Moin from Germany, does this make sense? Although transport had little effect on the change in the CPI annual rate, within the division, a large upward effect came from petrol and oil. Petrol pump prices fell by around 1 pence per litre in September, compared with a fall of over 6 pence per litre a year ago.
  2. Moin from Germany, make sure you don´t miss the interactive map "Subprime Tidal Wave" !!!! http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/doc...SUBPRIME07.html Here the link to the "The United States of Subprime" http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119205925519455321.html
  3. Moin again from Germany The main event is not the one month number. It´s all about the change in sentiment.... The headlines from now on won´t be supportive for years to come..... Lot´s of headwind for the people that are still in denial
  4. Moin again, Excellent find! Here more details and the link http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/01...dexSept2007.pdf Interest rate effect is increasing as borrowers come off very low fixed rates …… The CML estimates that around 1.3 million borrowers took out fixed-rate mortgages in 2005, and a further 1.5 million in 2006. The majority of these mortgages would have been fixed for two years. A borrower with a £114,000 mortgage – the average in 2005 - taken out at the average two year fixed rate in 2005 of 5.08%, would be making monthly repayments of £669.02. When the deal expires this year, the new monthly repayments would be £771.35 – an increase of 16% or £102 - assuming that the borrower moves onto the current average two year fixed rate of 6.58%. The overwhelming majority of borrowers coming off fixed rate deals are expected to be able to absorb the increase in payments. Most people's earnings will have risen since they took out their mortgage – average earnings have risen by 8% over the past two years - providing more income to finance the higher interest payments. House prices have also risen strongly in the past two years providing an equity cushion for new borrowers. The Bank of England recently estimated that the resulting 'payment shock' will reduce the annual post-tax income growth of the household sector by only 0.1 percentage points.* Static 'real' income growth in the first half of 2007 is also constraining housing demand Household disposable income in 2007 Q2 was unchanged from the level in 2006 Q4 once the effects of inflation are removed. (Source: ONS)
  5. Moin from Germany click on the link to see some extra tables. http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/ar...d0-fe6ab4c4170a LONDON (Dow Jones)--U.K. house prices fell in September for the first time since December last year, confirming that the housing market is slowing, lender Halifax said Wednesday. According to the Halifax house price index, released by HBOS PLC (HBOS.LN), house prices fell 0.6% on the month in September and were 10.7% higher on the year. In August, Halifax said prices rose 0.4% on the month and were 11.4% higher in annual terms. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires last week estimated prices rose by 0.4% on the month and 11.4% on the year. "September's price fall is consistent with the normal behavior of the market during a slowdown," said Martin Ellis, Halifax chief economist. Halifax also reported that in the third quarter of the year, house prices rose 0.9% compared with the second quarter of the year, down from a 2.3% quarterly increase in the second quarter and a rise of 3.0% in the first quarter of 2007. It marks "a steady downward trend in the rate of house price growth since the end of 2006," Ellis said. The average U.K. house price now stands at GBP198,500 from GBP199,770 in August, Halifax said.
  6. Moin from Germany, uh oh...... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119058413986236614.html In the past decade, U.K. consumers have become more dependent on borrowed money, both to buy homes and to finance spending. As of July, total mortgage debt in the U.K. had reached £1.1 trillion ($2.2 trillion), more than double the level of 10 years earlier and equivalent to more than 80% of annual gross domestic product. In the first quarter of this year, U.K. homeowners tapped their home equity for about £13.2 billion, or 6.1% of disposable income, an indication of how much rising home prices have been raising consumer spending, which makes up about two-thirds of the U.K. economy
  7. Moin again, i found this number also interesting. The average sales price of homes delivered decreased to $296,000 in the third quarter of 2007 from $316,000 in the same period last year, primarily due to higher sales incentives offered to homebuyers ($46,000 per home delivered in the third quarter of 2007, compared to $35,900 per home delivered in the same period last year). In the last quarter they reported $43,700 per home delivered. With orders down almost 50% it looks like they have to offer more..... :-) Keep this number in mind when you read how stable prices still are......The incentives masking how prices are already slumping or should i better say crashing....
  8. Moin from Germany http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070925/cltu048.html?.v=101 Lennar Reports Third Quarter Results Tuesday September 25, 6:00 am ET - Revenues of $2.3 billion - down 44% - Loss per share of $3.25 (includes a $3.33 per share charge related to valuation adjustments and write-offs of option deposits and pre- acquisition costs, goodwill and financial services notes receivable) - Homebuilding operating loss of $787.7 million (includes $847.5 million of homebuilding valuation adjustments and write-offs noted above) - Financial Services operating loss of $5.2 million (includes $9.3 million of write-offs of notes receivable) - Homebuilding debt decreased $212.8 million; homebuilding debt to total capital of 33.5% - Deliveries of 7,636 homes - down 41% - New orders of 5,804 homes - down 48%; cancellation rate of 32% - Backlog dollar value of $2.2 billion - down 60% Compare this to the estimates from "Wall Street Finest" that have estimated a profit of $ 0,25 just 90 days ago.... Their latest call was for a loss of $ 0,55..... This kind of miss will be common when the financials will report late 07 or early 2008......
  9. Danke ! More nonsense from the BOE BOE Says Inflation Risks Have `Probably Receded' http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home ``The upside balance of risks to inflation,'' in their Aug. 8 forecasts ``had probably receded. The outlook was now more uncertain.'' That is the problem when central bankers never leave the "core" world and are living in the "Matrix".....
  10. Moin again, can someone from the UK please clarify "At the end of 2006, fixed-rate mortgages accounted for about 45% of the £1 trillion stock of outstanding mortgages, up from 25% in 2003" When they call it fixed rate in the UK how long are the rates fixed in general? Here in Germany the usual term is 10 years Thanks
  11. Moin from Germany, i suggest to read the entire piece including several charts. http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Global+Market...07+Bradshaw.htm The next twelve months will probably see most of these fixed-rate deals mature and interest rates for a majority of households rise. CML data already shows that 2-year, 75% Loan-to-Value (LTV) mortgage rates averaged 4.67% in July 2005 compared to 6.1% in July 2007 ...the bottom line is that come October, 2-year fixed-rate deals could be some 175bp higher than they were two years ago ....mortgage interest payments accounted for 17.7% of the average borrower’s income in June, up from 15.4% twelve months ago. This is the highest level since 1992, in spite of the fact that interest rates are about 40% lower than in 1992. Factor in repayment of principal, and debt-servicing costs are within spitting distance of the 1990 high. The RICS measure has fallen sharply since the middle of last year and is only just above the lows of 2005, which preceded a collapse in retail sales growth and led to a surprise interest rate cut in August 2005
  12. Moin from Germany, maybe this British humor deserves it´s own thread.... :-) http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/arti...in_page_id=1770 The crowd look at me as if I were stark, staring bonkers. One or two giggle. A woman in a raincoat sounds like a Victorian maiden aunt being propositioned by a cad. "You want to do WHAT!?' she shrieks. Even the weary representative from Northern Rock blinks and shakes her head uncomprehendingly. So I say it again: "I'd like to deposit some money, please. And while I'm at it, can I buy some Northern Rock shares?" .......
  13. Thanks from Germany for all the great laughs! Brilliant! Here is another example of the famous British humor... The reaction I got when I said I wanted to OPEN an account at Northern Rock http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/arti...in_page_id=1770 The crowd look at me as if I were stark, staring bonkers. One or two giggle. A woman in a raincoat sounds like a Victorian maiden aunt being propositioned by a cad. "You want to do WHAT!?' she shrieks. Even the weary representative from Northern Rock blinks and shakes her head uncomprehendingly. So I say it again: "I'd like to deposit some money, please. And while I'm at it, can I buy some Northern Rock shares?" ...... :-)
  14. Moin again from Germany, thank god that Northern Rock is so confident in the quality of their balance sheet ... from June The charge for loan loss impairment amounted to £56.8 million for the first half (2006 first half - £44.5million) representing 0.12% of mean advances to customers (2006 first half - 0.12%). The combination of high quality lending, low interest rates, low early arrears and continued strong average LTV of the portfolio have continued to contain the levels of loan loss impairment provisions required for residential mortgages. Write offs in the first half amounted to £8 million representing only 0.01% of outstanding residential mortgage balances. We do not expect to see a higher impairment charge in the second half than in the first half of 2007 This really reminds me of the talk from some US banks 12 month ago......
  15. Moin from Germany, speaking of "moral hazard".... If you look at this table and the growth it should be clear to anyone that Northern Trust was very aggressive during the past 12 month. It doesn´t fit well with the speech from King about "moral hazard".....
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