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About Frankk

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  1. I thought this article from wednes'days Irish Independent could be quite significant. "It says several leading Irish lenders told a conference in Barcelona that they were now assessing borrowers' ability to repay mortgages on a basis of ECB rates plus 3pc, compared with the previous 'stress-test' of plus 2pc." Looks like the banks are trying to protect their loanbooks. It could spell the end of their loose lending practices. Some of the folks on propertypin are speculating that the banks are also trying to up their profit margin. If this comes to pass it could reduce the amount people are able to borrow by an additional 20%.
  2. an article telling it like it is from today's Andersonstown News What makes it so funny is the predictable VI spin in the face of overwhelming facts. West property bubble bursts By Ciarán Barnes The West Belfast property bubble has finally burst. Houses that only months ago were selling for huge amounts have fallen in price by up to seven per cent. This could mean that people who have bought properties for high prices in the past six months may have suffered significant losses on their investment. For example, a house bought on the Falls Road for £150,000 at the beginning of the year would be lucky to fetch £140,000 at the moment. That represents a loss of £10,000. Interest rates Estate agents blame a series of hikes in interest rates on causing the property bubble to burst, not only in West Belfast but also throughout the city. Local property expert Des McGranaghan, who runs the McGranaghan Estate Agents chain, said : “The rise in interest rates has caused the slowdown. “In the past two years there have been five hikes. Interest rates on mortgages are currently six per cent, and I would expect that to rise by another quarter of a per cent in the coming months.” Des said that house prices just increased too quickly over the past year. “This time last year houses were selling on the Falls Road for between £85,000 and £90,000,” he added. “But now they are on the market for between £155,000 and £165,000. “Investors are no longer bidding on these properties and this, along with the hike in interest rates, is causing prices to dip by anything between five and seven per cent.” But it’s not all bad news, because estate agents are confident the market will pick up again in the near future.“The market will pick up again, it always does. Prices will go back up because people have ambitions and want to live in the best home they can afford,” said Des. “With the dip in prices at the moment, now is a good time to buy.” Ulster Property Sales (UPS) estate agent Conor Beirne said he too had noticed a “softening” in prices over the past eight weeks. “It was something that was always going to happen, we always expected the dust to settle and prices to become more stable,” he said. Last month a study by the Ulster Bank found that galloping house price inflation had slowed as interest rate increases began to bite and more new properties came on the market. The investigation also showed that is taking longer to get a property sold. 08/03/2007
  3. A little anecdote from Dublin - My wife just met her friend for lunch. This friend works in a estate agency office in the city centre which employs 4 people. They are currently getting the sum total of...... ..........3 enquiries per day. Not offers, just enquiries. Morale is understandably low.
  4. If you search Propertysnake for the 6 counties the actual number of drops is....a whopping 992!!! When this site first appeared there was only 350-odd drops. Antrim: 418 Armagh: 155 Down: 257 Fermanagh: 0 L'Derry: 109 Tyrone: 53 For some bizarre reason Fermanagh has not registered any drops. Perhaps Fermanagh is its own little bubble!
  5. Hi everyone. Haven't posted in a while, although I still pop in occasionally to read your messages. I've done a quick check of properties handled by Templeton Robinson - as they are the only agents who publish current offers. I think this is probably the most readily available indicator of the current housing market in Northern Ireland. The search criteria is properties currently advertised as for sale in South Belfast with asking prices between 175k and 350k. The results were as follows: Total properties returned: 44 (100%) Total properties with no offers advertised: 27 (61.4%) Total properties with offers less than asking price: 4 (9.1%) Total properties with offers matching asking price: 1 (2.3%) Total properties with offers exceeding asking price: 12 (27.3%) Individual amounts in excess of asking price: 32500, 16500, 15000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 6500, 5500, 5000, 5000, 1500, 500 Conclusion: No published offers on the majority of properties but there is life in the old dog yet! Of the properties which received offers in excess of the asking price half were 6,500 or less and only 3 were greater then 10k. Only one could be really be considered silly money. It was only a few months ago when it wasn't unsual to see houses with offeres in excess of 50k in this part of the Belfast. I intend to re-run this every week or two. I hope this will reflect the market changes over the next couple of months. Would ayone else be interested in taking this search up for their own area of interest? There are currently 540 properties and sites advertised for sale on the TR website.
  6. I read on the main board that if prices were to stagnate for the next 10 years it would equate to a drop of >40% in real terms (allowing for annual inflation of 5%).
  7. A little reminder to any Southern investor that the game is up. but the VI's are still sprouting their predictable mantras.
  8. I presume that Northern Ireland is subject to the same 'selling seasons' as everywhere else. Late June, July and August are traditionally the quietest times for the housing market with people's attentions turning to family holidays and the like. The North is at the cusp of it's first real price correction, public sentiment has changed and bearish reporting in the media is now an almost daily occurance. Many inexperienced sellers (trader uppers who have already committed, flippers and BTL'ers) who are looking to off-load their properties will get a mighty shock when the EA tells them not to bother putting them onto the open market until September. Do you think that the recent surge in the number of houses for sale is by people who already know this and are trying to get out quick? If normal rules apply, I would expect this rise to slow over the coming months with the possibility that a number of houses will be withdrawn. This is because some owners can't be bothered with the hassle of trying to sell during this dead period and EA's advising that it looks bad if it's just sitting there for 3 months. If this comes to pass then there should be a glut of new properties getting dumped onto the market by September. Lets throw in the possibility of another interest rate rise ion the interm coupled with more negative sentiment. This coming Autumn should have a very different complexion compared to last year.
  9. The first real article I've seen in the Republic highlighting the slowdown in Northern Ireland property market. Taken from last Sunday's Business Post. Some telling quotes - Desmond Turley, a partner in Ulster Property Sales ‘‘But it isn’t something to worry about. It is the property market getting back to normal. What we have had over the past couple of years is just unsustainable and not healthy. Prices couldn’t continue to rise like that, it wasn’t feasible.” Phew!!!! It's not crashing afterall - it's just getting back to normal. Oh Really? If that is the case then why do you go on to say in the very same article - One reason for the slow-down is that investors, who initially pushed the prices up, are no longer as active. No longer as active? Is that EA speak for saying the investors are going, going, gone? At the bottom end of the market, where investors were most active, sellers are now more reliant on first-time buyers who can’t afford to push the prices up in bidding wars. FTB'ers are the foundations of entire housing industry. Take them out of the equation and it's downhill very quickly. But provided that provided you bought in the last 5 years and you don't intend to move you're OK?
  10. Property Snake is now showing 456 price drops in Northern Ireland. This is up from 361 on May 28th - a 26% increase in little over a week.
  11. Sorry about that PD! It was on the front page of the housepricecrash website this morning so I'm sure you would have stumbled across it eventually. Hopefully it'll be a valuable barometer in the months (and years!! ) to come.
  12. Buyer gets cold feet and pulls out of sale. Vendor realises that market isn't quite as bouyant and knocks a whopping 24k off the asking price.
  13. i haven't posted in a few days. I'd just like to say thanks to everyone for the kind wishes on behalf of my expectant missus Has anyone seen this site? Property Snake It lists a staggering 361 proce drops in Northern Ireland over 37 pages. It looks bang up to date as well with drops tracked and recorded as recent as last Friday. Take this one for example. A 15% drop on a 4-bed in BT7 - a drop of £74,960!! BTW, for some reason it's possibly the slowest website I've visited in years.
  14. How accurate do you think is the Templeton Robinson website for advertising the current asking price on properties? Scanning though properties in Belfast (3+ bed in Belfast between 200k and 350k) I was quickly struck by the amount currently for sale. Up until quite recently it would have yielded around 3-4 pages but is now showing 7 pages of houses matching my criteria. I noted that a much smaller proportion seem to be in excess of the asking price and in many cases it was around 3%-5%. There are one or two glaring exceptions where the current offer is about 30% over but to be honest they looked under valued in the current market. I even noted a few cases where the current offers were 23k and 10k under asking which I haven't seen in a long, long time. Most did not show the current offer at all - does that mean that none have been submitted?
  15. I had you pegged for a guy PD!! Guess I'll never make it as a profiler. You mention that you made huge financial and career sacrifices and in your previous post you thought that paying almost 60% of a salary wasn't too bad. My point is that it's dangerous to stretch yourself to such an extend just to put a roof over your head. Obviously I don't know your personal circumstances but I would hazard a guess you already own your own home with a 'relatively' manageable mortgage. Contrast your situation with today's FTB - in essence they are been asked to buy something that costs in excess of 50% more than it did 2-3 years ago. They are being forced into a 25-30 year commitment that will consume up to 60% of the take home pay of the principal owner. Many will buy a home without considering their circumstances 5 years hence. I feel very strongly about this because I believe that this has the capability to destroy lives. Ordinary decent people will become trapped, particularly in a struggling market. In the event of a recession or downturn some will loose their jobs and will not be able to meet the repayments. Some will be unable to find a buyer willing to pay what they did for their home. Some will get into debt. Tragically, some will not be able to cope. Some will have to make a very difficult decision as to whether they ever have children - something they may live to regret in later years. Anyway, enough of a downer from me! I don't have any children myself PD but I'm hoping that will all change on the 3rd of September when my wife is due to give birth!! Any tips would be appreciated. I've done my sums and worked out how much I need to earn in order to provide for my family - although I obviously need a price check on nappies!! I'll be able to earn a decent wage in Belfast but not enough to buy the average city house at 2007 prices so it looks like I'll be renting for a while.
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