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Everything posted by Woot

  1. NOHPC, please can you give the rationale behind this statement? I presume you have reasons for making it and would like to understand whether you are speaking from a reasoned position or whether this is a statement of faith. TD [Edit to add] ... and, without wishing to be intrusive, could you give some indication of your age? I'm intersted to know whether you have weathered previous crashes as opposed to corrections. Thanks, TD
  2. God knows I hope so! If this is what's happening around Twickers though, there is hope for the rest of us. I had thought that area (Richmond overspill) was pretty unsinkable! Thanks for keeping us posted. TD
  3. ... but somehow that's OK and exposure is still small, and nobody can really define what sub-priime actually is, and it'll all be OK anyway... sounds a bit like Merv and Brown! TD
  4. So who is the tactical voters' choice in the next election? We want to dump NuLab, but don't want the Tory shysters in either. What is a realistic (ie has a hope in hell of ousting Brown et al) choice?! TD
  5. Personally speaking, I couldn't buy at 6* income therefore it may make a house availble to me that I otherwise couldn't afford. We do all calculations on 3.5* income (because we have kids and need a life too!) and the scenario you outline above would make a house affordable. In a sense your hypothetical scenario is just that - hypothetical - for those who want to experience anything other than home-ownership in this lifetime. TD
  6. In the last crash (GC1) I knew a guy who as a bachelor bought a third-floor one bed flat for £48k in 1989. He got married in 91 then had kids in 92 and 93. He sold the flat in 94 for £19k. It was a choice of suck up the loss, or lose the family. 5 years is a long time at that stage in somebody's life. There are many like him today. Sad, but true. TD
  7. Out of interest, does anyone know what proportion of their staff this 17k represents? TD
  8. Sorry - I didn't phrase it very clearly. My original question stems from interest in the evidence not the media. I'd like to establish whether you believe there to be a greater weight of evidence, including sound anecdotal evidence, rather than hyperbole, at this point than in the recent (5-8 years) past. I realise much of the evidence is reported to us through the media, and that this affects sentiment, but I'd like to get a feel for your opinion about the volume of evidence rather than spin. There was a great site posted on this forum a couple of weeks ago where you could track and chart sale prices (Land Registry based) in a given area over a period of months. Stupidly, I can't find the url to get back there. However, I spent a long while on the site at the time and found many, many regions where there had been a significant actual drop in sale prices over the past quarter. Other links (a few below) seemingly give evidence, rather than hype, about a shift. I'd like to gain a view of whether this apparent increase in evidence from a range of sources is different this time. Thanks for all your input, chaps... TD Various reports from financial organizations predicting a drop (sharp or otherwise), together with seemingly myriad other independent sites and markers pointing to a drop. Irish Property Watch: http://ipw.hostico.net/ipw_myhome_4_report_090407.html http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...90&hl=falls DaftWatch: http://daftwatch.atspace.com/ Mortgage Implode-O-Meter: http://ml-implode.com/ BTW I know there are many who don't believe that a US \ Irish dip will affect us, but I'm of the view that it cannot fail to and indeed several of our banks have already experienced the ripples first hand.
  9. I'd like to ask all those who have been on the board for a year or more and who have been following property markets generally for 5+ years a question: When was the last time that you saw the amount of bearish news that we are currently seeing, the kind of factual evidence we are currently witnessing (eg US lenders going bust, HPI / MoM dropping), and the kind of anecdotal evidence that is currently appearing (repos, pricedout etc)? I experienced the 89-93 crash first hand (luckily didn't get burnt but know many who did) and the 2003-05 dips paled in comparison. However I've been on this board a relatively short time and lack the overview that many of you have. I'd be grateful if you would share the benefit of that perspective and judge whether this is a blip, like many previously, or whether this is more substantial and significant - according to the available reported evidence. Many thanks, in advance. TD
  10. Really good to see this kind of mainstream reporting using emotive terms like 'bust' since it will inevitably have an effect on sentiment. TD
  11. Two thoughts spring to mind: firstly, do we really accept anything Gummer says as credible - this is the guy who fed his daughter beef on TV because "it's impossible for humans to catch BSE" ? and secondly, are there any Politics majors on the board? Do we have to accept Brown as Prime Minister when TB steps down? I realise that the party was voted in, not TB as an individual, however what does a country have to do to invoke the equivalent of a vote of no confidence. Incidentally, if UK was a PLC Brown would have been kicked into touch long ago for neglect of his fiduciary duties! What do you think? Is there a mechanism for ditching Labour before they deign to call an election? TD
  12. What a fab site - never heard of it but have already spent 40 mins looking up all kinds of sites. Good resource - thanks.
  13. Best news I've heard all day - a little bit of common sense. Shame the gutless sycophants at the MPC didn't have the nouse (or nerve) to factor it into their Brown-sheeple decision. TD
  14. I suspect that some of the priced out generation may beg to differ... TD
  15. Sorry to be off topic, but I love your avatar... what a Dude Mr Benn is!! TD
  16. Please tell me you are joking! This is precisely what I have feared for a while... irresponsible borrowers being supported in their foolishness at the expense of those who have just sucked up the relative hardship of living within their means. I'm appalled that we are expected to feel sorry for those who have simply tried to freeload. Clearly if people's circumstances have changed due to ill-fate my sympathies are with them, but fools who risk their family's well-being and security to live beyond their means are simply getting their just deserts; it is immoral, unethical and infantile to expect the banks (and therefore responsible savers and other clients) to come running when it all goes belly up. Yours, outraged of Tunbridge Wells. TD PS OMG - I used to belong to Amnesty and CND and I did my time at Greenham Common, and now these chavs are turning me into Lynda Lee-Potter
  17. Have you been following the mortgage-implode-ometer thread - 48 sub-prime mortgage lenders gone to the wall this quarter in the US and it is already affecting UK banks...
  18. Such emotive headlines. Sadly they are not losing their homes, but rather properties belonging to the Bank. The sub-prime borrowers should never have had the facility extended to them - they are losing something they never owned and the rest of us are being called upon to pity, support, empathize with them. I hope to God that such empassioned media reporting is not going to lead to a call for fiscally shoring up such irresponsible borrowers at the expense of the rest of us. I'm sorry to sound so unsympathetic - I genuinely pity anyone foolish or unfortunate enough to be in this postion - but what about the families who have been unable to afford a house of their own in the past decade due to being 'priced out'; those who have tried to act in a financially responsible manner have not yet enjoyed the luxury afforded to those who indulged in sub-prime mortgages, lie-to-get etc. TD
  19. As he is a professional VI, I wonder whether he is able to argue without flying the VI flag: I suspect he may lack the degree of objectivity necessary for that. I'd be interested to know how old your friend is... is he old enough to remember the late 80s - early 90s first hand. I think anyone who was around then would find it difficult to deny the possibility of a crash. The whole BTL issue is a particularly interesting one since there are a significant proportion of the BTL market who are amateurs and will not be able to sustain the financial hit of voids and\or negative equity. Therefore I'd suggest it is unlikely that his clients would be able to soak up sufficient properties to buoy the market up, and that many of the properties coming onto the market may be unsuitable (or at least atypical) for BTL. Just IMHO. TD
  20. I suspect that the issue is far more complex than just 'housing immigrants' - for example I fully support the notion of offering sanctuary to those who are victims of human rights abuses; indeed I have friends who were thrown out of Zimbabwe and are now fully contributing members of UK society. However they speak English, pay tax and NI, claim no benefits and are law abiding citizens who contribute to the fabric of our society and fully expect to live within the framework of our society. I do have a problem with economic migrants, leeches and those who seek to undermine our society whilst promoting their own societal and religious values. Therefore, in answer to the original question: Yes, if the immigrants in question meet the above criteria and (broadly speaking) No if not. I lived in Bedford and Brixton and so have seen the best and worst of mixed cultures. I believe we risk our own national identity in trying to overly-accommodate the national and religious identity of others. And incidentally, in visiting the majority of countries from which migrants come, we would not be extended the same politically correct graces that many expect on arrival here. Ask Abu Hamza! TD
  21. Total € Value of Drops €16,920,075 Not to be sniffed at either...
  22. Bloody irritating that a useful discussion has been completely hijacked by a sexually obsessed, intellectually limited troll. Whilst I can ignore the troll's posts, I should have liked to see the conclusions reached by the other thread contributors on this topic. Why don't the mods intervene and kick the troll off? TD
  23. First-time buyers hit by double whammy The linked site carries the referenced Nationwide report which makes fascinating reading from the perspective of priced out and market sustainability. TD PS Apologies if anyone has already posted this.
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