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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by uro_who

  1. Sorry Van let me translate The average wage is £25,000 pa Distorted by higher than median earners. Yes its mad and radical I know.
  2. Its great to note that the troughs all line up. And the predicted trough compared with current house prices should be about 40% of current prices, i.e. a 60% drop. Bring it on.
  3. Average wage £25k here in Derbyshire. And that's including the local megarich that make it feature highly in that awful sunday times rich list thing. Slurrey comes first of course.
  4. Why higher than 30% or why 30%. If why higher, most mortals borrow money to buy a house if we can borrow 30% less than we can't afford to purchase that first house or upgrade to the georgian mansion. If why higher, this is the bare minimum, as the public sentiment changes I think the rug will be well and truly pulled. I think houses are more than 30% over-valued and in previous crashes prices have usually dropped below the realistic value to an undervalued one. The can't even give them away mentality. It was not that long ago that the tiny terraces in parts of the north that have been bought by gullible middle class idiots for BTL were being sold as buy one get one free.
  5. I'm not much good at maffs but 3.6x from 5x is about a 30% reduction in lending by Northern Rock. With 30% less money coming in and no FTB could it mean a 30% reduction in house prices? No. Even higher is my guess.
  6. The feeling in my water (and bare in mind I'm a professional) is 40%. Oh yeh and on the basis of the long term house price index. The troughs and peaks actually fit in straight lines. And on the basis of that we would be looking at a 50-60% reduction but that seems unimaginable. Although of course when prices are low you can't imagine what the highs would be. Certainly when I sat in Chiswick during the last crash I couldnt imagine the price my old flat would have been now!
  7. Dave I've been watching the market in Derby for the last 18/12 since I STR from Nottingham. I couldn't believe it when Derby prices were higher that Nottm ones by far. I've seen a similar picture amongst quite a few houses in the Allestree, Derby uni area, but I've not seen any removal vans or signs coming down. In fact quite a few of the signs have reverted to for sale again. There are also about 30% more for sale than in the summer. Do a search on rightmove and keep an eye out. I'm looking for something in the upper end of the market and many of the properties that have been for sale for sometime have already come down by 10-20%. Some are still going up for ever more silly money but nothing at the top end is selling. I've been watching for the last 3 months. Scargill and Mann et al have left the sold properties on their website and rightmove for 5 months to bolster the impression of sales. I don't know Stenson Road as such but is it BTL potential? I have seen quite a few portfolios of BTL for sale in Derby as jobs lots, eg 10 houses for £1 million. I hate to upset you but only one thing is happening around here, it's going down, down, down. Just ask yourself what the local wage is and what 3 x that would buy you. Guess what, Derby is not where young execs looking to downsize from london are looking for (thank God). I earn a lot and still can't buy anything desirable, infact I can get more for my money where I'm from in the home counties. I don't believe the hype and like many others I'm prepared to wait. I'm not the greater fool that most people selling their house are currently searching for in vain.
  8. To cheer myself up my bedtime reading is Calverley's book (bubbles and how to survive them). Although he doesn't make the point directly there is a lot on the Japanese recession. Land and property prices were enormous in Japan because of the small island, limited space, earthquakes zones argument. It is interesting to note that even now house and land prices are 25% of what they were 14 YEARS ago. Never mind the cliches, check the facts.
  9. Keep a steady nerve skyline. All will come right with a little more patience.
  10. Two adults, 4 jobs, one small child (not earning yet but we're working on it)
  11. 1. Basic Salary £160,000 (me and mrs) 2. Non-regular/other annual income (Bonuses, Commission,etc) : £50,000 pa 3. Income from Dividends: £0 4. Annual Rental Income (if landlord): £0 5. Income from other investments: £0 6. Capital currently in property: £0 7. Capital currently in shares: £0 8. Capital currently in commodities: £0 9. Capital currently in other investments: £0 10. Cash in bank, savings, ISA, etc £160,000 11. Annual gross interest earned on savings (if significant, e.g. STR's) 4.5% about £8k Yes I could afford a house. No I refuse to by an overvalued hovel. Not many people where I live have the above income prob <5% so I want a top 5% house and I'm going to hold my breath until I can buy one or expire (and quite frankly I'd rather expire than buy rubbish).
  12. Maybe they're moving at the low to middle end but not at the top. I have been looking at this end of the market for about 2 years. During that time prices in Derbyshire (dales) have doubled. We have a family income of 200k and £160k to put down but I still can't see anything that I can afford which seems like value for money by any stretch of the imagination. In a local village a chap that sells material on the local market is selling his house for more money we than we can afford. Has property gone made when a £200k income and £160k to put down doesn't pay for the house of a market trader? Any way not surprisingly it hasn't sold and is heading to the auction. A large number of the more expensive properties have already been dropped by 10% and are still waiting 4 months later. More falls to come I feel. Anyway, I have been wrong about a property crash for the last 18 months but I have another 28 years to be right yet. I think the odds are probably on my side! Mike H.
  13. It's in the park. Prices in the Park have always been home counties. If you are from the south and forced to live in Nottingham and a professional its the place that every has always recommended. Look for a property in the Arboretum, it's 0.5 miles away. The prices will be more Derby style.
  14. I can't tell you who's theory it is but one of the markers of bubbles in asset prices is the head and shoulders phenomenon in the price, i.e. price rises, drops, then rises strongley, drops and then rises again weekly. Then carnage. The graph looks like the shoulders and head of a human figure. If you look at current property prices I would say that we are dropping off the head, spring will bring a short lived rally, and then people will realise that this asset is well and truly over valued (plus tax rises, US economic problems etc). Hold on tight. Mike H.
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