Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Buy Toilet

Members
  • Posts

    195
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About Buy Toilet

  • Rank
    Newbie
    Newbie
  1. We have a thread on this graph every few years on this site. I still don't understand why it's on the front page as the line is nonsense. It's a trend line not a fit to the data. Someone somewhere has randomly at some point in time decided that 2.9% per annum is the 'right' value by which real prices should be increasing each year ie. house price increase above inflation. So this is the trend it shows. It doesn't respond to any change in the data unless someone adjusts their 2.9% assumption and replots it. If you wanted to plot something that changed depending on what house prices actually do you'd have to have a model to fit. Most realistic suggestion I've seen so far is Bland Unsights elephant in the room model.
  2. Always reminds me of the classic joke: A prosperous landowner is riding though his country estate. He comes across someone walking across one of his fields off the public right of way. Landowner: "You're trespassing! Get off my land!" Walker: "Your land? How did you get this land?" Landowner: "Impudent scoundrel! I inherited it from my father." Walker: "Where did your father get the land from?" Landowner: "From his father, of course." Walker: "Where did he get it from?" Landowner: "This land has belonged to our family for generations." Walker: "How did your family get the land in the first place?" Landowner: "My ancestors fought for it." Walker: "Then come down off that horse and I'll fight you for it now!"
  3. Modified EMH joke: (all off the web http://www.etf.com/sections/features/123.html)A financial economist and passionate defender of the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) was walking down the street with a friend. The friend stops and says, "Look, there's a $20 bill on the ground." The economist turns and says, "Boy, this must be our lucky day! Better pick that up quick because the market is so efficient it won't be there for very long. Finding a $20 bill lying around happens so infrequently that it would be foolish to spend our time searching for more of them. Certainly, after assigning a value to the time spent in the effort, an 'investment' in trying to find money lying on the street just waiting to be picked up would be a poor one. I am also certainly not aware of lots of people, if any, getting rich mining beaches with metal detectors." When he had finished they both look down and the $20 bill was gone!
  4. EMH joke: An economist and a normal person are walking down a street. The normal person says “Hey, look, there’s a $20 bill on the sidewalk!” The economist replies by saying “That’s impossible- if it were really a $20 bill, it would have been picked up by now.”
  5. Thanks for the links. Have you actually looked at them yourself? From your wikipedia link: I can see that you are impressed by the number of publications this guy has but even a quick glance at the list shows that most of them have nothing to do with electrospinning. No I haven't published any papers on nanotechnology but nor do I doubt this guys credibility as a scientist. But then I'm sure he didn't write the press release. You don't have to publish papers in a field to understand that start-ups always oversell themselves. The management of the company will be as important as the science in terms of whether this goes anywhere but then I notice you haven't commented on the CEO's last venture, I'll bet that technology was only 5 years away from revolutionising the world too.
  6. Ah yes of course they've said so on their website. And their one paper on the topic in a scientific journal proves that because they can show a few scanning electron microscope images they must be able to make this stuff by the ton. Here's their CEO pitching his last success to the Dragon's Den. and here's what investors in his last enterprise thought The Fool. And here's Cella Energy on Facebook: http://www.facebook....150856928301659 after it was founded in... 2011. So lots of time to have perfected their techniques I guess. Electrospinning indeed, Peter Mandelson would just call it spinning.
  7. And mass producing it? I remember reading stuff about carbon nanotubes doing X, Y and Z once. It was all true but they could only make the things by the micro-gram and no-one seems to have solved that problem yet. This seems to be the general trend with nanotechnologies. As Tony the tiger would say, they're great.... shame no-one can mass produce them.
  8. Trend lines are daft. I've knocked up what the trend would be for 3 scenarios over the next 5 years. 1 is 2% falls per quarter, 2 is no falls/no rises and 3 is 1% falls per quarter You have to ask the questions of an exponential fit to this data... how often is it actually anywhere near the real data (ie. minimised residuals the sign of a good fit) and how much effect does a few more years of data actually have on the line (not a lot).
  9. This thread reminds me of a great letter I once read:
  10. I found it interesting that at the potato factory 80% (I think) of the workforce were Portuguese. How and why does a situation like that arise? Where's the community diversity support officer when you need them? And what about the notice that was flashed up in a window written in Polish (which was presumably a job ad). How does your average Brit go about applying for that one?
  11. Absolutely that's a problem caused by high LTV mortgages if you ask me. If you lend someone 100% of a house 'value' to buy it, chances are they don't have a penny to their name. They haven't saved a deposit and have no concept of the kind of debt they are about to lock themselves into. These people should try saving up £20k then they might have a better understanding of why buying a house for £200k is so dangerous. I've had conversations with the kind of people you describe above that run along the lines of "so why don't you save up a 10% deposit instead of getting the terrible rates of a 100% deal and risking negative equity"... "10% deposit are you mad/rich? It would take me 4 years to save that up."...
  12. Hmmm, if anyone thinks this will be good, they obviously don't watch Question Time. This TV show will be about as useful as Mitchell and Webb's big talk (Youtube) in getting anything useful out of the politicians.
  13. They pay 6% flat without checking what interest rate the person is actually on? This is insane and must surely must be one of the main reasons that repossessions are being kept down and prices aren't coming down.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.