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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by IMHAL

  1. Oh give it up DB - stop with the simple'nomics. Our economies are integrated 'like it or not'...it's been that way for years and recently more so. Going back into a cave and deliberately giving them a cold shoulder for domestic optics is not solving anything.
  2. LOL. Just think about it. We are a democracy, pain equals less votes equals a vacuum for the party that promises less pain. We have more pain now and perhaps even more coming down the line, there was less pain before. The majority don't give a flying fig about sovereignty...they care about putting food on the table. Give them that and you have a mandate.
  3. Really? Many leave people I know voted to leave because they believed the b0llocks about Polish plumbers and EE drivers stealing there jobs...I don't know of many plumbers that are poor or HGV drivers that are on the bread line, or £350 million for the NHS. The rest (a majority) just wanted to stick it to the government....by....voting them back in....idiots that they are. And now, you and your like claim that 'the people' had some sort of focused unified ideas of why they voted leave....post justification rubbish!. It's all cobblers. Now we have DB telling us that because we have made a crap choice we just have to be passive and get on with it. NO. This level of stupidity that needs to be aknowledged...we are reaching that point. It's getting to the point of retracing our steps and reversing the current path. Like it or not, we have swung too far in alienating our closest tading partner, this will be reversed, 'the people' will make it so.
  4. Tough one to answer. The only thing I know is that getting those who are on minimum wage to pay for HGV drivers wage push inflation is wrong on so many levels.
  5. In a way Brexit is not unlike the luddite movement, but unlike that in that 'technology' replacing jobs is not seen as a bad thing. Higher prices will most certainly be the result of this excercise in cutting off our nose to spite our face...it will eat up any wage inceases for the few and result in the majority also paying more! That is what I call less than zero sum. How much is a person worth? Market conditions usually dictate that in a capitalist economy. An enforced shortage of drivers is a temporary issue....at steady state...when we have trained enough drivers then the market will rebalance and they will be no better off - they may even be worse off because of wage push general inflation. The real question you are asking tho I think is rather different. It's more to do with what should a working person expect to be able to afford, a house, food, heating etc...a living wage. That is something that only a government can control and only to an extent lest it creates it's own negative spiral. I agree that we should have a living wage...but government have lapsed into 'only high house prices matter'...that is the most significant part of their expenses and cause of many peoples woes. This issue is being painted as simple'nomics by Brexiteers in an attempt to portray this as a Brexit benefit. It is not simple and it is most definately not a benefit to the general population...care workers, hospitality, the gig economy...the millions of other workers who don't earn enough are in this story too yet they are not even mentioned. What about them? Do you expect them to pay for HGV drivers wage rises via wage push inflation?
  6. So DB, what is the solution to 'cheap imported labour. Spell it out. Could it be to train an excess of domestic labour to cope with the flexibility that is needed? What effect do you think this will have on wages in a steady state case? My cupboard overfloweth with jars of Jam Tomorrow and since when did you consider what 'the ERG thinks' as grounded in reality? But you might be right about when the checks cone in. There may not be that many goods to move around Britain...hey presto...no haulage problem.
  7. All good points. I can't see too many from the EU being seduced to 'help us out'.....
  8. LOL I'd forgotten all about 'the £350 million'......seems like an absurd soundbite only capable of taking in the most gullible...ie your average leaver.
  9. Too simplistic. The majority of HGV drivers are British. What is needed is some flexibility and quick response to smooth demand during highs and lows. We will still be reliant on imported labour to do this unless we train and over supply domestic drivers....which in itself will suppress wages. Brexit created a significant dislocation that was not addressed, and through Brexit dogma, will persist as a problem for quite some time....that is the issue.
  10. Pain is pain. In this case self inflicted pain. At first it was all sunny uplands, then it was jam tomorrow, now it's pain first and jam tomorrow. Tomorrow will it be 'the more pain the more jam'? You guys are a constant source of amusement. Talking of crack-heads....isn't it about time you came off that too?
  11. I think you'll find that Brexit is a significant component in our inflationary calculus (according to many business pundits). So the wage rises that the few will receive will have to be paid for by all in inflationary costs. I don't think anyone will feel richer, quite the reverse. As ever with Brexiteers, it's never Brexit's fault. It's always the EU, or furriners stealing jobs or the pandemic or 'global events'. I am waiting for the Covid dark clouds to clear so that we can see the effects of Brexit in a way that cannot be disputed.
  12. I'm loving your enthusiasm for pain. You'll need to keep that going for a very long time.
  13. They will quickly change their minds when they actually do get poorer. Except for Huggy of course...only because he's a bit simple.
  14. Won't take that long for us to realise that we are on that trajectory. I give it to the end of winter. When the black clouds of Covid clear...the Brexit reefs will become all too apparent.
  15. Lets face it, if Britain ain't Brexit broken now, then it's just not quite Brexit broken yet....it's well on the way tho. Brexit dogma has trumped all practicalities. We have ceased to be a nation were logic, reason and balance is in control. It's not all bad.....looking forward to the Next series of Auf Wedersein Pet....oh the irony!!!! (assuming we can get working visas for filming)
  16. It's Ok...... really! Brits like to queue....this is just a pent up demand for that experience . Just don't bother queing outside a dentist....you will grow old and have no teeth left to examine.
  17. There are approx 400,000 lorry drivers in the UK, that is approx 1.5% of the working population which is 30 million strong. Due to a 100k shortage of lorry drivers, ALL 65 million people will have to experience an extra 5% general inflation in food and other goods. This is just crazy, idiotic and pure and utter nonesense.
  18. Brexit is just getting better and better....I can't believe that food and petrol shortages are common place, farming and fishing industries sold down the river, broken supply chains littering the clear vistas... all in a matter of months. I should have nipped down to Tescos to bulk buy popcorn...sadly, the shelves would probably be empty even if I could get there. This must be the sunny Brexit uplands that leavers keep talking about....sounds like down town Skegness in December to me.
  19. I don't think inflation will help many out this time around, unless we get a 1970's style wage spiral, even then many will go to the wall before they get any attention. There is also the fact that the unions are now not as strong as they were back then. Collective bargaining has been broken for the majority.
  20. QE is a drug, a drug used to prevent the pain from over lax lending the decade before. The more you do the more you need to do. It should not have been allowed, we should have taken a good share of the pain in 2008 instead we just took more drugs They may raise rates, but, like the taper of QE, it will a token amount and quicky reversed at the first sign of anything doing badly.
  21. You have made an invalid link between lax monetary policy and the pool of external labour. If that were the case then we wouldn't of had the crash of 89. You can implement lax monetary policy and allow debt to spiral regardless... There is no doubt there is going to be a crash, there always is after a period of excess. The question is are we in a state to survive it and will we come out the other side in a better shape that our competitors. But more importantly, how many personal casualities will there be? We have a population with vast amounts of personal debt. Inflation and rising IR's will see of a great many of these off. If Brexit was a good idea (a big IF), then Brexit (the implementation) is a clusterfck. I really can't see your argument of rising wages and rising condition etc having a sound base because immigration figures are not that much different now than they were before. It's a smoke screen for a poor and ill thought through implementation of a project that seems to have no upside or correct problems that could not have been corrected without the pain.
  22. Tragic in that you don't understand the source of these imbalances. Loose monetary policy allowing asset prices to rise and debt to rise has led to these imbalances. Low wages can service big debts if the term is long enough and IR's low enough. The problem is that when this is no longer the case then your 5% wage rise is not going to cover inflationary increases and it will be dwarfed by the increased debt repayments, That is what this unmanaged cack handed dislocation will do....people will go bust, lots of them.
  23. Brexit is turning into a surreal excercise in self harm. We have ministers justifying why the supply chain should be allowed to continue to fail due to HGV drivers shortage, because "we are over reliant on Europeans". They want local jobs for local people and want to see wages and conditions rise. Yet the reason that pay has to catch up is because of the policy of making one of the essentials of life (housing) too expensive to buy, a delibarate policy. The stupid thing is that almost every aspect of our society is also built on cheap domestic labour. So when the next labour crisis to affect us comes along, what then? Does the government want higher wages for all workers, the gig economy, child care, hospitality etc etc. We are in for a big dose of high inflation, probably with low interest rates and more money printing. This is going to be very painful for the vast majority of ordinary people.
  24. Yes, it is amusing. We are happy to jump into bed with anyone who will have us.....shows how desperate we are. Sad, really sad for the spotty faced trouble making gammons with aires above their station and delusions of grandeur.
  25. Free trade zones are like the notion of 'free markets', they are anything but in reality. Access to our health, energy, farming, food sectors for this, allow people in for that. What's more these so called free trade deals are likely to pass without scrutiny. The politicians can sell access to their hearts and pockets content without the public's consent. That is the reality.
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