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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by IMHAL

  1. I'll answer it as I work for a private company that services the Public Sector and have experience dealing with directors in local authorities. In the private sector typical directors with P&L responsibility of >£20m with staff of typically 100plus get about £60-90k - they have no job security and no final salary. If they fail to meet their objectives and targets they get scrapped - simple. Please remember this is P&L responsibilty - i.e. they have to make money to make a profit in competition with other private companies - this is not running a budget to spend - that is somewhat easier! The directors I deal with in the public sector get paid more - are less accountable and have better security with a better pension. There was a time private sector employees would think of going into the public sector to escape the pressures of their current jobs, recognising that they would have to give up a good salary in exchange for more security and a good pension. Now that balance has changed and we look at the public sector with envy as they now have better salaries, more security and better conditions. So there you have it - you get paid more, enjoy better benefits, have more security and do a sub-standard job. Sorry mate - but you are entitled to your opinion - however not too many people would agree with you - and the public are getting tired of inflation busting tax hikes in all public services for what remains a so-so service delived by a bunch of beaurocrats who expect the public to cough up and fund their 'higher tier' pensions. As to the comment of doing a more worth while job in the public sector - please explain why you think this is? Do you mean that instead of creating wealth you are happier spending tax payers created wealth? - remember it is easier to spend than it is to create - try it again and see it its got any easier. HAL
  2. Is this the new paradigm where companies are expected to make money from peoples misery - soon to have many people living on the streets and the governments don't care - i.e. there is no such thing as society any more - its every man and woman for themselves? HAL
  3. Sam - concerned that your last post was deleted - what is big brother up to? HAL [Moderator; Not deleted, merely moved to the correct forum]
  4. Hate to state the obvious...... NuLabour just don't care - they have roofs over their heads - these guys are happy to re-arrange the deck chairs while the Titanic goes down because they have guaranteed salaries and pensions. Seriously - until there are people on the streets either rioting or sleeping rough or the media get onto the band wagon they wont even bring the subject up. 60k affordable houses huh!! Fat Jags did the opposite of building homes he set about demolishing perfectley good old houses - how that for feckless. I can't wait for this government to get what it deserves - and it aint nice. HAL
  5. No flame - you bring up some good observations. The only thing I will add is that the perceived value of fiat currency is based on trust - if the powers that be do not protect the currency, its purchasing power and its value as a store of wealth they people will lose trust - this will have an impact on the price of gold. My guess is that people are losing their faith in money - the BOE and the FED are giving the stuff away for god sake - people are buying assets, in fact anything rather than holding cash - if as we all expect western currencies start to slide, we will start to import inflation, then I expect the price of gold relative to those currencies to keep going up. HAL
  6. No I don't feel groovy - I feel impatient. I would like to see a good crash - a deserved one - a resounding one - one that says 'listen to me - I am the market and you cannot cheat me - I will hurt you if you treat me with disrespect' HAL
  7. Seem like a superior strategy to the 'get rich or die trying' mob. At least you end up alive and in the current culture you have no stigma attached. HAL
  8. Kick in the teeth is an understatement - its re-distribution of wealth to the very wealthy and the very poor - at the expense of the middle classes and the prudent. I hope that DrB is right and its just talk - otherwise we are in for hyper-inflation (no risk from speculation will drive all asset class even higher). HAL
  9. There are many people who say Sub-prime - its not as bad in the UK - well if you watch day-time TV then there are endless ads for sub-prime - together with the 'get you out of trouble' ads - we have whole industries now devoted to sub-prime lending and bailing you out of your responsibilities - I'd also say that these debts are packaged up (wherever they eminate from) to hedge funds world-wide - this has to be the tip of a global iceberg - the stock market will be the first casualty - followed by a credit crunch - followed by a HPC - followed by Governments putting help packages together - followed by a slide of currencies. Gold and oil will do well. HAL
  10. Yeh - but our house prices are twice theres and wages are about the same - so looks like its all square to me. HAL
  11. IMHAL


    No question there will be a crash - but there may still be time to buy and sell at the top (if the top is 1 or 2 years into the future). I have been a bear for years and STR'd in 2003 - also thought the great crash would have started by now - hasn't! so now considering if I need to protect myself from any further increases whilst still selling before any crash - it is an option and not one that I would have contemplated until now. HAL
  12. All this just adds to the common perception that if you borrow to the hilt then you will be protected - by lawyers, by the gov - its never your fault. Very bad - people are being indoctrinated to think they should get into debt because its risk free - we all know that this bunk. When the turning point comes - the debts will be called in. HAL
  13. IMHAL


    I think we should have a 'Muppet' category for those who cannot see the point of those who question both sides of the arguement. HAL
  14. Why build prisons when the banks will effectively let you buy your own prison (sorry house) - you become a debt slave - you cannot afford to do anything and they can take the roof from over your head if you don't pound the tread mill - with the governments ID card they can even monitor you at your own expense - game set and match. HAL
  15. I have have to agree with you on this one. I am personally suspicious of their motives and do not trust the current political establishment - we are either sleepwalking into a nightmare scenario or being deliberately pushed. HAL
  16. Agreed - the words 'trust' and 'authorities' do not sit comfortably together - authorities have a habit of wanting ever more power and the ID cards let them have more power over you - not a nice mix. HAL
  17. Unless we have a shock to the system (Oil, severe SM crash, etc) then I think you are right with no HPC - if this thing keeps rising then we will have to wait for the other tell tale signs i.e. TV programmes on how to get by, getting lodgers, making soup out of old boots, and knitting jumpers out of the wifes spaghetti. HAL
  18. So it you say that bare minimum living costs per month are: - £150 for CTAX / Water rates - £150 for 2 cars and fuel - £200 for food / drink - £100 for heating / lecy / gas / phone Then you have £900 per month min outgoings which means 5-7 years before everyone hits the bread line. HAL
  19. I've seen how the local concils work - they will make copies of your letter in triplicate and file in alpha centura - i.e. they will do nothing for fear of attracting negative attention, i.e. poor single mum or I hope they don't look too closely at the councillors BTL portfolios. They are all at it - no one is going to rock the boat. HAL
  20. Same boat - I am in the process of buying, I really resent having to pay through the nose but wife is sick of renting and being thrown out every year and a half, too much stress for a family. There is ultra madness in the air - I know it is the final push and I expect HPI to reach 15-20% this year and then it will disappear up its own vortex. I am at my personal stop-loss and have to enter to get what I want while I still can - If I had not reach the stop-loss (after 4.5 years of renting and wating) I would have carried on renting even longer - but that is not the case. There really is something very strange going on - maybe the majority are right and 'sense' that money has become allmost worthless - they see their deposits languish in a bank and become insignificant compared to HPI - how demoralising is that - the BOE and gov have alot to answer for - soon they will devalue the GBP and even that bastion of prosperity will evaporate. No doubt the symptoms will manifest themselves through stress and illness, divorce, broken homes, fatherless children, increased crime - desparate times - very very sad for this country. The basics of life have become so expensive that we will see people on the streets in greater numbers - probably with the only posession they can still afford - a portable MP3 player - thanks NuLabour!. HAL
  21. Affordability huhh! This is another aspect of this crazy bubble that I failed to take into account when I STR'd - the fact that some MEW to afford the essentials therefore prolonging this period of HPI (MEW was not really taken up during the last boom) - as long as HP's are going up it is effectively self perpetuating (in ever decreasing circles) and it will take a shock to knock it off its trajectory and distress selling to make an impact. There is a positive feedback loop that is in effect, that perversley and against common sense has the effect of increasing its value. When this one goes bust it will truly implode. HAL
  22. Yep - not really happy about taking the exit from my position of STR - but thats life - as I said I am lucky in that I can afford a place and have limited reserves for rainy days or possibly to re-invest if the market crashes properly. I have been looking at the broad peak of the HPI graph for some time and pointed out some time ago that the 'double peak' when in early formation could be the start of another up-trend akin to the glitch in the previous peak. I decided that if after Q1 2007 (along with PG) we had not started to see a decline that I would re-enter. This broad peak is a result of globalisation - competition and cheap labour means that people accept that they will move further into debt slavery as opposed to strike action to enhance their lot. The CPI has had a cummulative effect in reducing both real wages and savings - the people are not agressive in defending their standard of living. We are selling our future sweat for longer under the threat of a roof over our heads. The CPI figure is fudged and it benefits both banks and governments. Even tho I have bought - I still hope that the whole thing crashes - the younger generation should not be in a position where they have to sell there souls to the banks. HAL
  23. Have to agree with your logic - I STR'd four years ago with an expectation that the market would have crashed by now. It has'nt.... yet. I decided that I would put a stop on my speculative bet and re-enter the market when the type of house I wanted has risen to the value that I can still afford - that time is now. Effectively I have lost my bet because the market has remained irrational longer than I can 'afford'. I simply cannot take the risk of escalating prices so must get back in - I am lucky because I can do this and still buy the house I want outright - others cannot. Of course I could carry on renting - but the other half is fed up with being thrown out of successive properties on two months notice - it disrupts our lives and adds stress. HAL
  24. Just putting 2 and 2 together - if what matters is the creation of debt - then in a low IR environment coupled with low wage growth and high real inflation we have the perfect environment for businesses to borrow money - which helps banks making more money. No? HAL
  25. I'm afraid same story in Norfolk - could not believe how many people are fighting over proprty in the half mil bracket I know that the market can turn but we do not seem to be seeing signs of this right now. HAL
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