Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum


  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by IMHAL

  1. So would I - any ideas of who may have the data? Or is it so complex (deliberatley so I would think) that it would be virtually impossible to re-construct. HAL
  2. WOW! I think this is a Fonzy moment (1970's yank sit com for those too young). So lets get this right. - they deliberatley fuelled HPI - they deceived the public - they have put people into excessive debt - they tried to engineer a way out of recession... whilst causing a bigger problem later on - they..... words fail me. This is what an independant MPC is for IS IT??? Meddling with peoples lives and not being responsible for the concequences - they are about to see the fruit of their policies when families are thrown out on the streets - when crime figures increase, when the divorse rate increases and when no-one trust anything said by officialdom. Surely these guys are not fools - they must know that you cannot prevent a recession - it is a natural part of the cycle - by delaying one you increase the sscale and pain of the next recession. I am speechless. HAL
  3. I am sorry you you talking out of your theoretical nonsense. What does 'enduring worse macro-economic conditions' really mean? Do you mean that by allowing HPI we are staving off a recession that should have happened today whilst indebting outselves and our children to a life of debt slavery? Did you know that MEW contributes 4% to GDP? Whithout it we would already be in recession. So we are spending our notional assets/our reserves to fund growth - this is not sustainable - so should policy not control this for a better economic future? - its called delayed gratification - as opposed to the instant gratification that NuLabour is ecouraging right now. So - it seems obvious - politicians are tempted to spend today and let tomorrow sort itself out - or most probably a different party - i.e. the Tories will end up with the mess to sort out as usual. HAL
  4. When you say it is not meant to trick people - you are being naive - CPI is frequently quoted as representing inflation and was used in the same breath as pay rises for Nurses and other public sector workers - now that is being disingenous. You are too trusting - the politicians are using it as a tool to control pay whilst giveing the 'impression' that inflation is under control. As for not being a housing quango - I do not beleiev that either - they are indirectley influencing growth at all costs with their policies and they know they are doing it. Lets also say that most people not being economists think inflation is the rise in the cost of living. HAL
  5. Does anyone measure CPI as it would have been without the various attempts to bastardise the measure? i.e. we would then have say 10 graphs for CPIv1, CPIv2, CPIv3 etc to demonstrate that the trend by GordenRon and the ONS is to manipulate the figures downwards each time. I would have thought that this would be proof that what has happened is manipulation. HAL
  6. It a systematic fiddle. I don't know why they bother to publish CPI - no one believes in them anymore - they have no purpose and do not reflect the cost of living (according to the ONS) - they have lost credibility together with the MPC and especially our Stalinist Chancellor who lie to his citizens - he is another Mugabe in the making - he eats cake and everyone else eats air - at least that is still free - oops forgot he is imposing a council tax rise for those who live in rural places where the air is fresh and the views are nice - so that is taxed also. Is there nothing that this hog of a pilfering chancellor will not tax - I don't wish him ill but I would poersonally like him out of the way - he is destroying this country - salami slice by salami slice. HAL
  7. Voted Labour in 97 - bad mistake! I thought that they would restore some balance but they ended up screwing things up with out any social gain. Will never vote for them again - give me Maggie any day - at least she stood for those that worked hard. Will vote Conservative next election. HAL
  8. Given the prospect of being lambasted - I stand up for PG as he said that falls would start at the end of Q1 2007 OR if it passed the trend line all bets would be off. In fact if you look at the shape of the HPI trend line you see that it was pointed out that the 'double top' may be the same point on the graph as the previous 'pause' - PG acknowledged that this may be the case - it looks like it is. He, I and many other need to draw a line after which strategies change - easy to be critical but its harded to take a punt and know when your punt has not worked. Any better ideas? HAL
  9. Agreed - the there are more factors involved in the Germans getting housing to be a social rather than a speculative commodity - they have a good system that seems to have withstood the global speculative craze - this will put them in good stead. HAL
  10. I know - I was not having a go at you - your incredularity at the current situation is well placed - I was just making a point as to what they are actually doing - i.e. they do not know how this will actually pan out - but they should be getting the ideal by now that all is not well and is destined to get worst still. HAL
  11. No not the w-word - they are engaging in a giant experiment to see what happens when you let the market take control - it is an extreem experiment - and there seems to be no safetly net in place or brakes to contain any potential catastrophe. In short they are hoping that people are rational (which they obviously are not) and that the market will find its own equilibrium (which it will but it will undergo hugh rises and dips). What our policy makers have misunderstood is that speculation in lifes essentials will bring massive suffering, leading to increased crime and it will destroy the fabric of society. I hate government control myself but there are a few places when it does make sense - i.e. see the German system for housing and how they control speculation. HAL
  12. Sorry I'm not Yvette - but I do think the Germans have a great model for running the property market - it makes sense and disincentivises speculation. Its what you would expect from the Germans - a good system that works - their politicians obviously have more common sense than ours. HAL
  13. Margams post is valid - if you want a particular property then you need to buy when one comes up - that is the price you pay for being particular. Others simply want a house, any one from what will be a wide selection of houses available in a distressed market - these people can wait for a HPC knowing that something that meets their requirements will come along. The only other thing to point out to your friend Margamboy is in a distressed market the likelyhood of a property in the street he is interested is coming up for sale greatly increases. I do not think he is expressing a bullish sentiment or being a troll - just being realistic. HAL
  14. I just cannot believe that the general population can so easilly be seduced into thinking that everything is fine just because the notional value of their home is rising. NuLabour have destroyed this country - they have made some stonkingly bad decisions - at each turn they have gone for the easy money masked by layers of spin and lies. It really is time to get rid of these idiots, I see trouble on the horizon very soon. HAL
  15. How many times have government projects overrun? Answer = Always!!!!! Therefore I conclude [with Dog] that the government administrators are at fault - furthermore I suspect that they always knew it would cost more but did not say so from the off because it would have been politically unacceptable for them to do so before we won the bid. You guys [public servants ha!] need to get a life and stop blaming everyone else - accept some responsibility for a change - go on - everyone else does. Or is responsibility and accountability not a part of working in the public sector? HAL
  16. In defence of PWC - they were probably given a duff spec to work from by our very vague politicians [seb Coe included]. Sh1t in Sh1t out as they say. BTW is it not mad (and circular) to add VAT on this project in the first place? i.e. VAT on spending tax payers money that has largley been derived from VAT - sounds like a scam to me! HAL
  17. People not being able to service their debts and distress sales have lead to the situation - there is a limit to the amount of risk even sub-prime can take. HAL
  18. Lets keep this brief - you challenged me to come up with a better system. I believe that I responded to this point - get rid of people who are bad, hire good people to replace them, make it a zero sum game - and stop asking for more money - every time you ask for more money you are failing - and have been for the past 10 years. Do I have to keep repeating myself! Your initial arguement was for public sector managers who should command similar fees compared to the private sector - my response was and is that currently public sector managers get better pay , better holidays, less stress, and better pensions. Therefore I think that public servants should receive pay cuts below that of the private sector and have the same conditions imposed on them i.e. less holidays and non final salary pensions. They should receive less pay because they get job security in exchange for this. If they are prepared to forego the job security then I would concede on the pay issue - i.e. impose a hire and fire culture or accept that lower wages are being exchange for security. I beleive that I am wasting my time with you - you not sticking to the point (we are not talking about your small world of planning here!) - ramble may be nice but if you are going to engage in this arguement at least stick to the debate. HAL HAL
  19. There seem to be no point in this arguement - the public sector do not understand ,and they do not want to understand where the money comes from. I had a discussion with my brother in law who is a doctor about their new employment contracts (this was three years ago) and I pointed out to him that they would effectively be getting a 50% pay rise for 30% less work - when I pointed out that he already had a good salary (better than a CEO) and very generous pension and that the private sector workers would have to stump up for this even though they are retiring later..... he stopped talking and did not want to discuss it further. It just goes to show that its mans nature to line their own pockets - the difference being that the public sectors pocket linings are enforced by law. There is no amount of banter that will convince a public sector employee that they current have it good - that is why we need another MT to come along and tighten the purse strings - OR we need to get hundreds of OAP's still having to work in their 70's and 80's to refuse paying their council tax - then they will see the reality of the situation - pensions having to work or starve in their cold houses whilst they bask in early gold plated early retirement. HAL
  20. Let me re-itterate - we need a public sector - we need good people to work on the front line and we need good managers - but lets not forget, it is a gravy train and a job for life - so stop winging and draining the life blood from Jo Worker with 'inflation busting' council tax rises and stealth taxes - these have been going on for over ten years. You have had the money - you have spent them on wages and other failed projects - now where are the results? We are stick to the back teeth with 'we need more money for better people' - work within your budget - get rid of the crap first and make way for the good - make it a zero sum game - no more public money to bail you out everytime you fail - and you do fail every year when you ask for more. HAL
  21. Oh I get it now - silly me - don't you? It goes like this - if the market is always increasing then there is no problem - so you are Ok if house prices only go up. Errr - problem is that house prices have started to fall - so there is a problem - and GreenSpam is a starting to sound like dementure is setting in. Poor guy - he needs to take a rest - there there now - lets take you back to the old folks home...... HAL
  22. The income that you refer to is mandated by the Public sector - it is not won in a competition - that is the key difference. There is no equivalent between public and private sector because they are chalk and cheese - in the private sector, any service that is delivered is won by being better than your competitor - this form of competition does not exist in the public sector. Our glorious NuLabour leaders have put various measures in place to ensure that the public sector behaves - IMO these are a joke, why? because in the private sector you would soon be out of business unless you are classed as 'excellent'. My point about wealth creation is valid - the public sector at best squandor wealth (they take a large slice of it in their wages - admin fees) and at worst utterely destroy it. There are plenty of stories about the destruction of wealth by the public sector, I need not go into it. The public sector do not answer to the public - they are a beaurocrates - imune from the real market place - they feel no pain when real jobs are cut and are happy to see a two tier pension system so long as they get the upper tier - at the tax payers expense of course - and now they are demanding better than private sector pay. I'd laugh if it wasn't so pathetic to see the winging that goes on - they are not living in the real world. Do not get me wrong - I think that there are many good people in the public sector, the blame goes squarely on the government as they have bloated this sector with fat pay awards and over staffing - the old maxim applies give em an inch and they take a yard springs to mind. I wait in anticipation for a government to come along that will slash and burn to reduce this waste. HAL
  23. I'll answer it as I work for a private company that services the Public Sector and have experience dealing with directors in local authorities. In the private sector typical directors with P&L responsibility of >£20m with staff of typically 100plus get about £60-90k - they have no job security and no final salary. If they fail to meet their objectives and targets they get scrapped - simple. Please remember this is P&L responsibilty - i.e. they have to make money to make a profit in competition with other private companies - this is not running a budget to spend - that is somewhat easier! The directors I deal with in the public sector get paid more - are less accountable and have better security with a better pension. There was a time private sector employees would think of going into the public sector to escape the pressures of their current jobs, recognising that they would have to give up a good salary in exchange for more security and a good pension. Now that balance has changed and we look at the public sector with envy as they now have better salaries, more security and better conditions. So there you have it - you get paid more, enjoy better benefits, have more security and do a sub-standard job. Sorry mate - but you are entitled to your opinion - however not too many people would agree with you - and the public are getting tired of inflation busting tax hikes in all public services for what remains a so-so service delived by a bunch of beaurocrats who expect the public to cough up and fund their 'higher tier' pensions. As to the comment of doing a more worth while job in the public sector - please explain why you think this is? Do you mean that instead of creating wealth you are happier spending tax payers created wealth? - remember it is easier to spend than it is to create - try it again and see it its got any easier. HAL
  24. Is this the new paradigm where companies are expected to make money from peoples misery - soon to have many people living on the streets and the governments don't care - i.e. there is no such thing as society any more - its every man and woman for themselves? HAL
  25. Sam - concerned that your last post was deleted - what is big brother up to? HAL [Moderator; Not deleted, merely moved to the correct forum]
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.