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IMHAL

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Everything posted by IMHAL

  1. I would have thought that NOW would be the time for all that money that is sloshing around to do two things to manilpulate the market 1) go big into short positions and 2) simultaneously buy heaps of gold. The effect would be to force governments and banks to raise interest rates (they don't like high gold prices) and at the same time the higher IR's will kill business thus enhancing short positions making them money to plough into gold - and thus the next cycle begins. Seems like the ideal time to manipulate the market. IMHAL
  2. HPI has not stopped as I expeted in Q1 2007. Previously I looked at the graph on the front page and said to myself that there is a possibility that HPI may take off again and essentially take off into the stratosphere - driven by sentiment alone. It seems like the banks are game for lending anything to anyone - weather they have an income or not. My question is what is there to stop such an event occuring? HAL
  3. I am sorry but I don't think we are talking about the same thing here. My point is that there is a good money and bad money - short term the government may be able to reduce its debt by taking its tax cut from the banks but this is false and unsustainable - when the velocity of money slows down we are left with nothing but the debt. Then where will the government get the money (to waste)? It will have to increase taxation ever further, probably through more stealth. Do you remember the program that showed what the UK economy was made up of? I think it was about 25% housing / building market and 25% financial services. I dare say that the financial market depends on the housig market to a large extent - if one collapses then we are left with a 50% hole in the economy. This governments policies are taking us to a place that is ugly - the wealth gap will increase and when the housing market breaks we will see what is left of this country. HAL
  4. "Investors are likely to take advantage of this ample liquidity and the associated easy credit to purchase other assets, driving risk premiums down and asset prices up," the BoE told parliament’s Treasury Committee on Feb 20th. "In due course, those higher asset prices may be expected to feed through into higher demand for goods and prices, putting upward pressure on the general price level," the BoE concluded." This makes me very angry - the BOE and the government have duped savers, pensioners and the prudent - There will be a price to pay for giving themselves a free ride at the expense of those willing to work and save. Workers and the middleclasses are being raped, what will that leave in the UK? An entire dissaffected population (minus politicians and there pet projects/favourites) - it will not take that much to spark general unrest - or are we Brits so lazy that we will wait until we are on the streets before raising an eyebrow?. It is indicative that those who will have made money during this boom are all 'money skimmers' - they just make money from from the sheer velocity of money - financial services - it all makes sense - money going round quicker means money to be made skimming. No one else is getting richer - pay is staying the same - inflation is out of control at 5-10% (yet official stats say only 3%) - we are all being fleeced salami slice at a time - and by a Labour government! We are doing a classic 'path of least resistance' political trick and not taking the hit on the chin when it comes to global competition - we are not competing with them head on with better / smarter industry - we are decimating our capabilities and allowing the politicians to hoodwink us into thinking that the new money is in Finance - right - so when it gets too exensive to buy foreign goods (and it will happen) - we will be left without the capability, totally at the mercy or external forces with no cushion of self reliance. This government has taken the easy option every time - We should call it EasyLabour - with their EasyTaxes targeting the prudent, EasyPolicies kneejerking to the rythm of popular media attention, EasySpending with money draining away on 'go nowhere projects' and public sector salaries. They have one policy that can claim to be different - HardPensions - making retirement an expensive and, if you are luck to life long enough to qualify - a very poverty ridden experience. Not a great record for EasyLabour ivory tower brigade. HAL
  5. As an 'Austrian' the answer is "I would'nt start here if I need to get there" - seriously thro...lowering interest rates in true Austrian mode is only asking for the money to be put into unproductive things i.e. houses, gold, etc - they should have been raising interst rates and letting people's imagination and ingenuity take centre stage - then we could have competed with johny foreigner by inventing our way our of the mess. The FED however is determined that we will end up digging dirt and ploughing fields to compete 'nose to nose. What a bunch of morons. HAL
  6. No such thing as Capitalism when someone controls the printing press - all you are working for is beads! - money back by nothing but thin air is open to being manipulated to suit whoever is in power. If you think about it, people work hard to store fat for hard times - when the value of that for which you work is degenerating faster than you can work then its pretty much pointless - major currencies are being devalued and that defeats the object of hard work. There seems to be no sense in trying to hord hard cash - better to buy something, anything! I hate saying these things - because I don't buy these 'anythings' myself - I assume that the world is a fair and civilised place - I could be wrong and will probably suffer for it. I think we are all on the road to sefdom - engineered by the FED. HAL
  7. If as we all expect the econmoy is being manipulated (which is easy to do when you hve a printing press) then it is likely that there will be a slow down - I don't know why people even try to predict the market when it is the FED mentality that they should be trying to anticipate - I am starting to think this is the best way to get ahead of the game - but can we predict or anticipate that? HAL
  8. Respect! Never a truer word said. What happens when all the energy/oil has been pilfered by the western world? I assume then that the USD and all other fiat currencie go back to being pieces of paper - Gold and other precious metals (as well as land and the means to protect assets) becomes the new currecy? IMHAL
  9. BTW - I agree they should have commercial rates of interest separate from household..... if their intention truly was to encourage business growth instead of consumer debt. Somehow I think consumer debt goes hand in hand with control. IMHAL
  10. Sure - they know what they are doing!!! Its called helicopter money - why print it and give it away when you can inflate a bubble and get people to spend to pull you out of recession and as a bonus get them stiched up for the rest of their naturals as debt slaves. Makes puur-fect sense to me. IMHAL
  11. If you where to interpret that in the context of 'entrenched sentiment' then you would say that the current prices are now ingrained (i.e. deemed normal) - this would suggest that HPI is still set to rocket into a speculative uphoria in order to create the next bust! V scary indeed - it would also mean that inflation would now have to accelerate at light speed to make this happen as current HP to pay multiples will not sustain further increases - we are at an interesting time. This graph makes it more difficult to judge what will happen next - i'd say we are 'boiling the frog' territory so far not experienced in a current peak like today - the graph seems to resemble the region that is coming out of a slump and headed towards growth? I am a bear but I do not like what this graph says to me. IMHAL
  12. 1 - IR's suppress inflation - they stiffle demand 'even' at the expense of people losing their jobs - the act of high unemployemnt makes people fearful of losing their own jobs and also creates a hungrier population willing to step into the jobs for lower pay. The coresponding lower economic activity actually does save resources - i.e. lower growth = less energy expended. At least that is the theory. 2 - The effect will be to make other part of the world more uninhabitable - although we do not know what effect it will have on the cooler areas currently under inhabited due to cold - but essentially you are right - the UK should fair better than say Spain/Greece/Italy. Also - it does beg the question that if everyone is so concerned about global warming - then why are they promoting growth so much - you'd think that they would put a cap on growth and allow growth when it is shown that it was due to more efficient use of resources - this in itself does not mean sustainable but it is a heck more sustainable than our current position. If you go one step further than you would only promote growth when it is shown that the extra efficiency/productivity is achieving a net surplus of energy. IMHAL
  13. I came across one like that in Chichester - man was she good - but I resisted the wallet massage IMHAL
  14. Do the BOE always anounce on mortgage approval statistics? Or are they preping everyone for no IR change this time around! I would have though that the ONS would have anounced this or some other body!! HAL
  15. RB - just check the language - they say HP's are rising at a slower rate and just before the MPC meeting - its the same old same old when will you learn - they are saying house prices are going up thus catering to the bulls and at the same time saying not as quickley thus catering to the MPC - in around 2 weeks time they will be saying house prices are rising at 9% pa which I think you will agree will be music to the bulls ears! I am a bear but sometimes I wonder if we are on a hiding to nothing. IMHAL
  16. Sorry mate all the prisons are full You'll have to look elsewhere for free lunches IMHAL
  17. Agree with the first bit - not the second - they are never shy about publicising a success even if 1) they had nothing to do with it (lower interest rate or is it a global phemonenon) or 2) they have lied about it being an achievement i.e. better education, better health service, less crime - need I go on? And NuLabour are the best at shouting from the rooftops when they have even smidgeon a chance of being acknowleged - I work close to local government and I can say some of the successes they shout about should have been declared failures - you would not believe the spin they are putting out when in fact some initiative have achieved absolutely zero, nada, zilch. IMHAL
  18. It seems to me that there is a possibility of debt being re-cycled 'recursively' i.e. A passes it to B that is passed to C and then C re-structures it and passes it back to A - A thinks its now safe when in truth if has not covereg its liabilities. Sounds like a WMD of the finance world when it goes baps up. IMHAL
  19. You my friend are deluded - what does not seem to occur to you is that the incentive to do gut busting hours and take excessive risks (i.e. building a business) to afford an 'average' house is simply not worth the risk. What's the betting that did not pull out all the stops you have mentioned above to buy a below par house in a flea infested estate!! - but instead happened to be in a house that by chance went up in value and now you are crowing - quite sad really - luckily you will be sat in the same house with non of the value and all the debt when the time comes. I'd suggest an alternative to your suggestion - i.e. not working - getting your Sheila up the duff and geting larger house on a flea infested estate instead - if it wasn't for moral arguement that is. IMHAL
  20. Do you have the Bernanke link for his statement? - if it is true that the yanks are moving their CPI measures then the money supply will simply balloon! and the world will follow with IR cuts and monetary expansion. This is surely the start of the end of the dollar based fiat system - the Chinese must react - they are holding a hugh amount of dollar based reserves and will not take kindly to their hard work being salami sliced away. If this it true then I think that Gold will start to speak for itself. IMHAL
  21. And I am not against gambling per say - but if you watched Question Time - there was a poll of the audience as to how many of the audience actually wanted gambling and Jonathan Dimbelby note that 99.5% of the audience did not want casino's or super casino's - the NuLabour minister arrogantly retored that they did not represent the people in the areas that are to have casino's - So the question that should have followed was 'did NuLabour ask the people in the areas if they did want casinos?" - or was this imposed on them?. I feel casinos have been imposed on us by NuLabour - we have not been asked if we want this - and given how cynical and suspicious citizens feel at the moment towards NuLabour - then I doubt we would have said yes. IMHAL
  22. At diong what excately - controlling the masses? taking away civil liberties? increasing taxation? paying civil servants and themselves more? They are a bunch of meddlers - they just can't keep there hands off anything - take schoole sfor example - got rid of grammar schools only to re-introduce them through the back door after spending hugh amounts of tax payers money - thy seem to think that taxing the populus to try out their socialist experiments is Ok! IMHAL Spelling mistakes and the subject of schools do not sit well together - trying to type too fast
  23. I can see most private sector workers being really perturbed by public sector unrest - its like they deserve more pay, better conditions and platinum plating on top if their gold plated pensions - good grief what has this country come to!!!!! The workers who bring in the bacon are being forced into debt slavery to pay for the public sector - what a state!!! I hope the gvernment has grown some balls and can say no - but I doubt it - they will just roll over and say yes as they always do - soon you will need to work for the public sector just to survive in this world. IMHAL
  24. I guess if we legalise everything that is currently criminal then we can focus our police on the thing they loving doing most - driving around in cars and issuing speeding tickets and parking fines..... IMHAL
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