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IMHAL

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Everything posted by IMHAL

  1. Affordability huhh! This is another aspect of this crazy bubble that I failed to take into account when I STR'd - the fact that some MEW to afford the essentials therefore prolonging this period of HPI (MEW was not really taken up during the last boom) - as long as HP's are going up it is effectively self perpetuating (in ever decreasing circles) and it will take a shock to knock it off its trajectory and distress selling to make an impact. There is a positive feedback loop that is in effect, that perversley and against common sense has the effect of increasing its value. When this one goes bust it will truly implode. HAL
  2. Yep - not really happy about taking the exit from my position of STR - but thats life - as I said I am lucky in that I can afford a place and have limited reserves for rainy days or possibly to re-invest if the market crashes properly. I have been looking at the broad peak of the HPI graph for some time and pointed out some time ago that the 'double peak' when in early formation could be the start of another up-trend akin to the glitch in the previous peak. I decided that if after Q1 2007 (along with PG) we had not started to see a decline that I would re-enter. This broad peak is a result of globalisation - competition and cheap labour means that people accept that they will move further into debt slavery as opposed to strike action to enhance their lot. The CPI has had a cummulative effect in reducing both real wages and savings - the people are not agressive in defending their standard of living. We are selling our future sweat for longer under the threat of a roof over our heads. The CPI figure is fudged and it benefits both banks and governments. Even tho I have bought - I still hope that the whole thing crashes - the younger generation should not be in a position where they have to sell there souls to the banks. HAL
  3. Have to agree with your logic - I STR'd four years ago with an expectation that the market would have crashed by now. It has'nt.... yet. I decided that I would put a stop on my speculative bet and re-enter the market when the type of house I wanted has risen to the value that I can still afford - that time is now. Effectively I have lost my bet because the market has remained irrational longer than I can 'afford'. I simply cannot take the risk of escalating prices so must get back in - I am lucky because I can do this and still buy the house I want outright - others cannot. Of course I could carry on renting - but the other half is fed up with being thrown out of successive properties on two months notice - it disrupts our lives and adds stress. HAL
  4. Just putting 2 and 2 together - if what matters is the creation of debt - then in a low IR environment coupled with low wage growth and high real inflation we have the perfect environment for businesses to borrow money - which helps banks making more money. No? HAL
  5. I'm afraid same story in Norfolk - could not believe how many people are fighting over proprty in the half mil bracket I know that the market can turn but we do not seem to be seeing signs of this right now. HAL
  6. Indeed this is the most depressing conclusion that I came to - we are not free at all and never have been. The notion that money is a 'reliable' store of wealth is simply wrong - just look at how money is being progressively devalued or how the value of assets can be manipulated by political policies or whims and then you know how fragile your store of wealth is - how can you be free when you cannot store wealth in a relaible way to plan for your future? We are simply debt slaves and always will be - the tokens we own can be manipulated at any time by forces outside of our control. If we are debt slaves then I guess the questions becomes "what is feedom?". HAL
  7. Thats because they are not serious.... they pour there words over this issue to calm the water - they do not actually mean to achieve anything.. it would go against their principles. HAL
  8. There needs to be growh because interest is charged on loans - simple. If I lend you a tenner and demand 11 quid back you need to do 10% more work to get the extra £1 - that 10% more work is growth. The arguement goes that I as a lender expect more in return as a risk premium - since banks rule the world then growth is built into the fabric of society as you will see in the money = debt video. Effectively the creation of interest rates and debt has meant that people will barter their future sweat for the privelage of consumption today. HAL
  9. I've just started looking myself (out of necessity) and was shocked at how boyant the current market is - I have an offer on a place at -7% - it was rejected and current offer is -5% - this may not be accepted. Unfortunatley the market is currently boyant - I hate buying into this market - but it is the case. My tactic was to say I liked the property but my wife is so-so and she is continuing to look around - I am hoping to use that to scare them into a quick decision from fear of another property coming onto our radar - it may not work. Sounds pathetic - only -5%. I'd much rather wait for the market to become a buyers market - bu there you go. HAL
  10. Sam - you are right to ask for the connection - fact is no one really knows because we don't know where the money will go when chasing returns after it has fled the SM, and we don't know how the powers that be will react (do they lower IR's or raise them?). Last time the money chased property - there seemed to be some scope for BTL yield and or course capital appreciation - so there was a business case. This time yields are non-existant - so investors must rely on capital appreciation alone which is really risky. I personally think that if there is a SM crash this time around then there will be a HM correction - if the MPC lowers IR's then this send the clear message that this boom will be supported come what may by the banks and that will lead to very rapid inflation - first by debt then by wage demands - which will spiral. I've just got to keep reminding myself that inflation is also very bad for banks because it devalues the spending power of the money that they make - ie their own wealth will be eroded. They are at a position of very fine balance - my bet would go, and is currently on an increase or IR's and a credit crunch. HAL
  11. I've been thinking for a while now that our system is unsustainable - it of itself creates the need to over strech our resources and relies on ever increasing velocity to keep its balance - this video confirms it. On the other hand - it is the system that is currently in operation - the rules by which todays game are played - so in effect we are locked into the system - you either play within its rules or do something about it - to do something about it you need resources - that means money which is controlled by those who have a vested interest to protect the current system. So not only is the current monetary system unsustainable, it is also unchangeable. In effect, it will only change when it has been destroyed by its own hand. I wish the video has gone back even further in time to explain what preceeded money - i.e. stores of grain or other consumables as a store of wealth and then gone onto expalin what wealth really is (the ability to ride out times of famine by keeping a pesonal reserves?) - this would have been even more enlightening. HAL
  12. Problem is if most peoples position is cash in the bank - they are seeing their buying power being devalued daily! - If the markets are going to tank then the response of governments will be to devalue their currencies even more by pumping making the problem even worse. For most people who hold either or (cash/property) it is a rock and a hard place. -When will governments react to any big SM correction by cutting IR's? -Will the housing market crash before governments react? -Will speculation in the HM re-surge if they cut IR's? These are the questions that are wirling around in my head - i.e. buy now to preserve buying power or wait for a possible crash in the HM. I just don't know. HAL
  13. Have been arguing for years that spending on the NHS should be reviewed - I go along with the fact we are mortal and that trying to cure everything is just not possible, it has an exponential effect on what we have to pay which also affects our health and wealth. There is an unlimited demand for health services but a limited supply - all governments have been weak in telling people what can be done and what can afford to be done - the problem of limited financed has been brushed under the carpet for so long that people have a perception that anything and everything is available - something that successive governments have done nothing to dispelled, because they are fearfull - as ultimately they have to play God in this respect - we should have a charter to say what we can expect from the NHS. It pays for the politicians to keep this issue hidden and simply cover it up with a simple "no treatment is available" - problem right now is that people are more savvy about what can and cannot be done by modern medicines and techniques. When we are sucking ever greater amount in NHS spending the issue will have to come out and be debated. HAL
  14. Its all so bl00dy predicatble - its like living in the Matrix!!! HAL
  15. Whats the bet that the PPT has had a hand in this? This is my conspiracy theory - when AL speaks they step in and re-enforce his comments with hard cash to bolster the market - this re-envorces the market opinion that AL is always right - its a bit like a pavlov response - in time - the PPT does not even have to put cash on the table - they just let AL speak and that cures the trouble. HAL
  16. Smacks of deperation IMHO - I think the trader can think for themselves and see what is happening - Al's 'soothing words' amount to nowt as fear sets in. HAL
  17. The seeds of contagion me thinks - we really could be seeing the spread of something very significant here. HAL
  18. Others have said it before - time will tell - but I have a nagging suspicion that this current up-trend is manufactured and is the result of the IR cut after 9/11 - it is based on borrowing and consumer debt - so it is not of itself sustainable at least as far as consumer spending being in lock-step with wage improvements. What we could be seeing is a debt tolerance /risk tolerance wall being hit - if this is the case forget about those nice steady sustainable graphs - this could be nasty. HAL
  19. RB - its all relative - gold will continue to fair better than the SM (at least in the short term) - people are losing faith in the real 'fiat' currencies. HAL
  20. Thats what I said - the BOE and gov are tracking the wrong index - they brought it in t keep wages low - unfortunatley it will have the opposite effect in the long run as you have pointed out above. HAL
  21. What has been needed all along is for the BOE to dispense some medicine - a 0.5% IR increase - that would have choked off all this speculation in one fell swoop. But as we all know the BOE does not have the balls - only the government has the balls, unfortunaley he is a 'bollock'. The BOE is so behind the IR curve - they need to get infront to stand any chance of controlling inflation. HAL
  22. Lets face it, the CPI was only brought in to control general wage inflation - the BOE by using it to target the cost of lending is tracking the wrong index - result = rampant debt and rampant real inflation. They are tracking the wrong index, the results are predictable and will manifest itself as debt fatigue and general deflation as soon as the debt becomes intolerable. This is of course assuming that the BOE does not give in and allow wage inflation to go unchecked (which will be the easy political option). We are definatle in for hard times - hyper inflation followed by deflation. The problem is that most of us will go broke through the hyperinflation period and will not be able to hoard cash to take advantage of the deflation period. HAL
  23. I agree with you - it is the madness of the crowd - but perception is reality when the majority hold that view. As the Austrian economists saying goes - lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy is just asking for the same mistakes to be repeated - i.e. money just pours into bolstering current inanimate assets which by their nature do nothing for the advancement of mankind or investing in more of the same 'last years fashions'- kinda like banging your head against yesterdays wall. Its a long saying..... HAL
  24. And I think the answer is that the plan is to contnue devaluing money to keep the 'workers in check' - if money is like grain as a store of wealth, then no one can stay rich for very long as the grain will eventually go off and be worthless, this only applies for those that work to produce grain, the grain store owners always stay rich - by inflation which is their tax on you. Sorry... I think that analogy is apt. Read it again - it will make sense. HAL
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