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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by IMHAL

  1. Agreed - the smart money will be ahead of the curve and the dumb money will lag and when the merry go round stops the poor will get shafted with debt and worthless assets. Have they lied about inflating the money supply? I thought that its growth was published. What they have lied about is the real level of inflation - so in a sense 'money supply don't lie'. HAL
  2. FSA? Do they actually do anything? If they do they usually react after the hourses, tractor and farmer have bolted out the barn. The good thing is that the arguement for 'not on my larnd' has 'evaporated'. All beginning to sound like a juicy scandel to me - this is just what we want to scare investors and curb irresponsible lending. HAL
  3. Interesting but not sure I understand - can you expand please? HAL
  4. Ok - I see your arguement - you say that this time they can't reduce IR's as we would import inflation with the resultant devalued currency. So that would explain why they are busy tampering with CPi in preparation for an IR cut? I guess they are hoping that CPi hits 2% or at least comes down to about 2% to give them an excuse to cut. I agree they are running out of places to go - but what does the beast do when it is cornered? Merv talked about deflating the currency - why did he say it? was he preparing us for the next step? I still think that given a deflationary recession or an inflationary one - they may opt for the inflationary recession (Japan experience and all that). HAL
  5. All assets are capable of being manipulated - look at houses! HAL
  6. I thought that UK banks had got rid of the inconvenience of have to have any reserves to lend against. I know it used to be 10% fractional reserves but thought that that had been reduced significantly or eliminated altogether. In which case they probably do not have much of an issue lending money out or having to rely to heavilly on getting money in. HAL
  7. Given that Eddie showed his hand when interviewed by saying that the BoE ramped assets and especially the housing market to achieve 'stability' i.e. growth. He did this by admitting that they would have gone into recession if they had not. Now it seem reasonable to assume that the housing market would have naturally gone into a tail spin if they had not played that card. My open question is will they do the same (i.e. reduce IR's) when consumers stop spending this time around? And what will the impact be - more HPI - decimation of the currency - or will another bubble inflate - gold?. Or will they take it on the chin this time around and admit that the markets have defeated them. Somehow I just can't see them taking it on the chin and just doing nothing - I hessitantly feel that they will react in the same way as they did last time - they will lower IR and basically savage peoples saving and increase debt and perhaps inflate another bubble somewhere. I feel that this is the call to make because it seems pointless talking about Earnings to House price ratios, immigration or any other fundamental because the market IS being manipulated - it becomes more important to talk about the motives of the BoE and the FED - so what are their options? It is also sad that this 'free' market can so easily be manipulated and affect everyones lives - it is also clear that we are not free - we are being controlled in the grossest way. If this is democracy then shuv it. HAL
  8. RB - I just don't understand what their plan is? How do they aim to get out of this fix? I just can't see them lowering IR's - they will destroy the currency. On the other hand I thought I heard the BoE saying that they may have to depreciate the currency - perhaps they have already decided that when this current upswing in consumer fueled madness ends then that is precisely what they will do - lower IR and start to devalue our currency. That is the final act of madness - but why? HAL
  9. What is interesting about these stats is that the MEW twin peaks around 1987 and 1989 are looking remarkably like 2004/5 and 2007!!! MEW dives in 2005 when our good BoE reduced IR's just to make shure the sheeple took it upon there heroic selves to spend what they didn't have. This is pretty good data and just adds to the fact that the BoE are indeed monitoring MEW as an indicator of what to do with IR's - i.e. lower MEW = lower IR's - makes sense considering their main aim is to bankrupt the nation. How long can they keep this going? There must be a point when they see that the poor old peeps can no longer take on more debt? HAL
  10. Yep agree with all those - only comment is that timing matters - when you buy a house matters - if you have a house and the market turns down and you are in negative equity then you are shafted - and lets face it these days you need lots and lots of debt to buy a house so your chances of being shafted are great. HAL
  11. I'll widen your analogy. We are in a stricken plane - our goal is to fly over the himalayas - we are currently in the low lands - do we: 1) land now on rough ground and hopefully fix the problem 2) carry on and hope to fly over the himalayas and if this does not work, jettison the cargo and hope to pull up over the mountain We have had market crashes before - they are a part of the natural business cycle - and rarely fatal, painful yes but mostly just set backs. This time we have greater debts than in 1929 - a crash now would hurt - like hitting a mountain. Our money masters made the wrong decision on 2000 - they opted for 2). Our options are now limited - we cannot go back - they have to try to crash somewhere or hope some fluke uplift helps out. Hopefully they have thought this through this time around - and if there is no uplift on the horizon will choose to land whilst it is still possible to do so and preferably before careering to the mountain. HAL
  12. Our views are different - the main difference being if you have considerable appreciated equity in your home or not (i.e. HPI). For those with lots of cash it may be easy to buy now - but they would have to be prepared to to stomache 'real' losses of their hard earned and not magicked up cash. For those with no or little cash then they face the prospect of a life in debt and confinement to their own personal bought and paid for prison (ie their home - well the banks anyway). So the idea of having a home to live is is fair enough but not at any cost - been there and done that in 89 and suffered 8 years of losses, crippling mortgage costs and virtual confinement at home - remember the BoE said that the last 10 years were benign - I think they are saying we may be entering a different inflation period. Most on here want to avoid being a prisoner in their own homes. HAL
  13. You lucked out - good for you. It could have easily gone the other way - if the MPC had not played God and artificially inflated asset prices - you would have been the loser. You just need to recognise this. HAL
  14. I think thats right - after all, the carry trade would make a killing if we doubled our rates - they could take from Japan - lend to our peeps and stash the cash. It would only make a significant impact if we tightened our lending criteria or the securitized markets turned up their noses at the risks involved - which is only just starting to happen. HAL
  15. Is it so bad? Yes it is bad! Because it assumes that something will come along to get us out of the current unsustainable situation and out of the coming recession - something that will drive growth and replace the current growth engine which is consumer spending - where is that something? I can't see it! And if that something does not come along what will happen? Do we just continue to dig deeper and eat into our reserves and pile up even more debt? And what if nothing comes along? Then we enter a recession with no savings and a pile of debt - surely you would agree that this is a worse situation for the majority - a cold economic depression with no fat reserves for the average John and Jane - they will die in the cold or starve. If we had entered a recession in 2001 then at least most would have some savings to fall back on. Bust + savings = short term pain + creativity Bust + debt = long term pain + severe depression Its called the thin edge of the wedge mate! its been done before and the same 'surely thats not such a bad thing to do' have been used before. They have taken what was a good opportunity to have a mild recession, to destroy unproductive capacity and promote wealth creating capacity - and replaced it with MEW, flat screen TV's and iPods for all. What a waste!!! - now that is bad - real bad! HAL
  16. Good Old Schiff - talks sense and the other guy agreed - just the presenter with head up ass syndrome. HAL
  17. What employment figures are you refering to? Are they the same as the ones in the past? or the doctored and put out to flatter the current politicians? As for stead growth - yes it is steady but is it not being proped up by MEW? (MEW being 4% of GDP) - technically that puts us into a recession if you take it out of the equation - after all Eddie already admitted that stability was being engineered by inflating the housing asset bubble. HAL
  18. Sadly, I think you are right - I could see from the faces of the MP's who were interviewing Lord George that they did not understand how the MPC made their decisions. They were scared to ask questions - even apologising for asking them - yet they needed to as the questions which were put onto their agendas by ordinary folk. MP's kept on asking why the CPI did not reflect reallity? and if there would be any merit to a non-technical person being allocated to the MPC - the answer by Eddie was the computer says no. They want to keep the whole thing unfathomable. The MPC thing seems to be cloaked in a mystery that even our MP's cannot understand. This is dangerous - and as you said - I think its going to turn into a blame game when at some point a wheel falls off. HAL
  19. What is clear is that there is currently no will in the BoE to correct the situation that they have admitted getting us into - what is not clear is when they will have the will. What is the BoE hoping for? What is it that they think would correct the situation? My guess is that they are waiting for something else to come along and drive the economy (instead of consumers) - I see nothing on the horizon. What would they consider to be the point of no return? - their backstop position - the point at which they have to admit that their experiment has not worked and what would they do in that situation? What level of debt do people have to get to before they say this is not working? It seems obvious that by doing something/anything to re-allign the current scenario they will precipitate a crash - otherwise they would do something. There seems to be no logic and no plan on their part - I do not trust them - politicians should be asking these question of the MPC - afterall we are in a whole lot of trouble and its not getting better. HAL
  20. Eddie said that he thought that personal debt was under control???? In the same breath he said that they had created a medium to long term unsustainable situation (i.e. ramping HPI and debt, and that the problem is still with us and needs to be resolved. So how do they cure teh situation - people in debt, people getting further into debt, house prices rising past any notion of fair value and IR's still accomodative - I can't see what they are doing to put the situation right!! All I see is the same old, same old - they are just hiking IR's very gradually and hoping the wheels don't fall off - and at the same time the situation is getting worse - seems like they are not sorting it out to me. To correct the problem they have created would mean that the saving rate would have to go up - but they can't do that with out putting us into a recession (i.e. consumers stop spending and start saving). They are in a catch 22 situation of their own making. We and they are fooked. HAL
  21. Twaddle! Why don't you watch it instead of just being aware of its existence? If you did then you would also be aware of the main motivation behind this - i.e. avoiding a recession after the dot.com crash - all the other motivations nehind the scenes you will have to read between the lines - go on give it a try! you might learn something. There has been plenty of motivational anaylsis on threads here - read them - your own analysis seems remarkably light, superficial and incoherent. All the best and good luck with your research. HAL
  22. Why don't you watch the video? - all 1hr and 40mins of it. It is available just check the tread. Then perhaps some of the questions you pose will be answered. HAL
  23. Sorry mate - thats just twaddle - you wouldn't recognise a wet fish if it slapped you in the face. HAL
  24. In the first opinion the assumption is that the BoE will look after the interests of the economy and by implication you and I. On the face of it the BoE's priorities are to stave off recession and keep the economy growing so that the CPI target is within the bounds set by the chancellor. The real issue is what is price we must pay for keeping CPi within bounds at all cost? The price is unsustainable debt by their own admission - they have achieved stability at the expense of inflating asset prices and increased house hold debt - they have made a decision that affects you and I so profoundly that it will be with us for the rest of our lives - this country will not get out of debt for a generation. That is the price for avoiding the last dot.com recession - and the next questions is? What will be the price that this weakened country will have to pay for the next depression? We have no reserves left, no debt potential to go on a consumer lead splurge - we cannot fight the next bust - it will come and it will be severe because we are saving poor - that is what the Chancellor remit of 'stability' to the bank has achieved - its was a nice illusion whilst we still had something to give - the price has been the erosion our saving and the creation of unsustainable debt. If the Chancellor was not a Stalinist - he would have also given the BoE a target to preserve saving or at at least given them some savings targets - this Chancellor does not like savings - they get in the way of his ability to control by addicting the populace to his state hand-outs. Who is to blame? - The chancellor is - he set the BoE's objectives. He could have thought about the consequences of setting such an unbalanced objective but he chose not to. We are the soon to be poor man or Europe.... again!!! HAL
  25. /Super rant/ This is going to be an interesting and horrible episode in what has been a very benign few decades - the resulting depression is going to hurt so much that people are going to start asking 'how did this happen?' - this question will keep coming up over and over again - and the BoE and Brown are going to be the main focus of attention. The cretins in charge have killed the engine of growth - its called a bust - its where innovation starts and gives way to the next generation of wealth creation - its where the lazy money is destroyed and redirected to real wealth creation - instead the cretin have encouraged, pushed and forced us into so much debt that we are beholden to the banks for an eternity and the state for hand-outs - we will not have the air to breath to think about how to work our way out of hell hole of debt misery. We are living off our last ounces of fat reserves - and then we will simply..... fade. NuLabour have used up all the collateral - all the wealth that this country has accumulated - its savings, its innovative lead, its manufacturing, its good will - its all gone - its been engineered away in the quest for that elusive 'stability'. So just what is stability? Its NuLabours way of saying we do not agree with the natural business cycle - we do not agree with the Darwinian forces that govern the market - we want a nice steady world, a boring world where we don't have to struggle to much, where we the Government will look after you in exchange for your civil liberties - even if we have to eat into our resrves to do this. The problem is that this Labour government have kept on eating into our reserves - and digging deeper and deeper to excavate every last bit of fat and muscle to quench their thirst for bigger and bigger government - they are hoping that 'something' will come along that will be the next golden goose - its just not going to happen - there is no incentive to start a new business - the tax hounds will find you and bleed you dry before you even start. This is going to be one hell of a depression and no amount of engineering or tinkering by the BoE is going to get us out. Hell, the NuBullies and Stalinists have slapped increased taxes on small businesses - how is that going to help with wealth creation? Not good - we are currently an asset rich but a cash poor country - and soon we will be asset and cash poor country. /Super rant over/ HAL
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