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IMHAL

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Everything posted by IMHAL

  1. I am sure that you are right in that he is not a fool. However what I do have trouble understanding is that he has probably caused more problems by trying to stimulate the economy and forstall the 2000/2001 recession in the first place - the law of unintended consequences has started to take over. Now investors and speculators are acting like pavlovs dag - they are waiting for the next interest rate cut to mortgage their souls - just incase they lose their savings in the worthless money trap. The idea behind capitalism is that you occasionally get a shakeout of the market to cut out the dead wood - this makes way for better businesses - out of the fire rises the pheonix etc.... AG by trying to eradicate a due downturn has broken the system - now speculators are ignoring risk = more and bigger bubbles = more and bigger troubles. I think he has seen the errors of his way actually (too late) - and conveniently he is also out of the job therefore giving this particularly nasty problem to BB - nice guy ehhh!!! So the cost of delaying the 2000/2001 recession was mall investment and excessive investment in the housing market (the wealth effect) - so the financial distress has now moved to Jo public where before it could have been contained just to the markets and speculators in the dot coms. Double nice guy!! HAL
  2. I listened to the interview and the conclusion was...... I've never heard so much horse sh1t from a man with such a great reputation - he came across no so much as a man who knows what he is doing but more a man who does things to the economy and then stands back to see what effect it will have - well I am sure most of us could do that. Take a few examples: - he lowers interest rates to 1% after 9/11 - did he not expect those kiddies to come out of the sweet shop without bags full of over inflated goodies? It was a real bubble blowing moment. - he says that the UK housing market slowed down in 2004/5 but then 'suddenly' rose again and that this is 'unexplained' - well what about that interest rate cut - surely sir that may have been a trigger? (hint - like it was when you previously cut interest rates). - he then claims that interest rate policy is having no effect on the economy - doh - is this man for real!!! - he then goes on to explain the wealth effect caused by inflating house prices - but when the CPI was constructed it was claimed that house price inflation is decoupled from the real economy and therefore did not need to be included Is this man is so stupid? - I am at a loss to understand his babling - he truly is full of horse sh1t. HAL
  3. I doubt you'll get quid for it - it may have more liabilities than assets when you factor the 'real' sub-prime element on its books. The 'buyer' may ask the government for money to take on NR - I can see it comming a mile off. The tax payer will pay some company to take it on - I can hear the rumble on the tracks before this particular train gets to the station. HAL
  4. I strongly suspect that Gordon 'ron' Brown has such a massive ego and such a fear of failure that he will do most anything to avert the stigma of a crash - including what he has just done which is to signed the tax payer up to taking up all sort of sub-prime debt from the banks as collateral. I think he will go further - he will most certainly lower interest rates - bail out the next bank(s) that gets into trouble through lax lending (which GB has effectively given them the green light on) and I hate to say this - he will also allow trade unions to get away with 'inflation busting' pay rises (I hate that word 'inflation busting' because everying is inflation busting these days - you'd think in the interests of a green environment they'd save paper and ink and just call it inflation). He is on the road to taxing savers even more and rewarding speculators by encouraging inflation - a sader society will result and he will have his communist Britain - we will all rely on him for alms. HAL
  5. Let me think........errr... no.... nope............no way! The system as it stands is in dissaray - you own the bank a grand and the bank controls you... you owe the bank a trillion and you control the bank. The BOE and especially the FSA (both are puppets of this government - no illusions now) have allowed the banks to become hostage to the situation - this government is morally corupt - it has allowed those hard working famillies who have saved to maintain themselves in their old age to rot by guaranteeing that their savings are eroded by inflation. Inflation that will simply overwhelm them and ensure that they on the poverty line - they will be looking to the state for handouts - just where our dictator Brown wants them so he can dish out the alms to whome and when he feels like - this fecking idiot is not happy to spend all the money we earn today - he has spent our future earnings too. This government has let its people down just to hang onto power - this is not the action of conviction politicians it is the action of jobbing politicians who seek to line their own pockets at the expense of their electorate. Still most people seem to think that so long as their houses are worth an every increasing amount of money ,even tho the money is worth less (and may become worthless!) then they are happy. Struth - you would think that the opposition would spell this out to the people - well - if they can't then I guess we deserve what we get. I hope Brown and this Labour government rot in hell for the damage that they have done to this once Great Britain. HAL
  6. This is all looking very ominous - we are now at the real 'horns of a dilima'. First if you do not have a house and have the money to buy a house then you face the real chance that your money will be eroded away by inflation - these muppets are signalling a repeat of 2005 to bolster the market one more time - since the medicine seemed to work then - or at least put off the inevitable - they will try it again. Second if you do have a house and excessive debt then you face the real possibility of an economic mishap that will more than likely mean that you will lose your house and end up bankrupt. Either way you are in trouble - this government (and central bankers) are forcing all people into debt prison in order to support the markets - by making money worthless they have stolen the savings of those hard working people they cliam to represent by eroding its value. This is all going to end badly - I am tending to agree with GF and others that gold is the best bet - but I still think that if the CB's and Governments of this world are so devisive then they will not have a problem with confiscation. HAL
  7. To credit Brown and Bush with any intelligence about what real growth in the market means is to go too far. They simply do not know or care - they just want growth because it keep votes happy and pays the taxes (their wages) - they do not care if they get it from tulips or houses - they want to stay in power by any means necessary. The shock comes about because the people who make the markets hype the market to make money - lots of it - then when the sht hits the fan - they go to the politicians, ask for a bail out, get it, unwind their own position by passing the waste to Jo Public's pension funds and the game goes on - except we now have a recession or hype a new bubble. Its a game that the business community has been playing for a long time - its easy - you get free money from the state and you cannot lose - until you get hyperinflation that is and them the angry hoards will get you and your family. HAL
  8. I don't know what they will do - however - if they lower rates then we all know that the global markets are in real deep do-do and they will have lowered to avert a massive crisis - at this point its make your mind up time - its either hyperinflation or deflation - red or black - take your pick - either way we will see a recession or a depression (after hyperinflation). Any action by the central bankers to lower IR's will lead to reduced confidence in the health of the financial - I can see the SM rising initially for a suckers rally if they lower then it will tank big time. I can also see that banks will tighten mortgage credit even if they lower IR's - so we will still see HP's go down but maybe with a bit of stickness initially as housholds keep their nostrils above water for a while. Alternativeley if you are very rich and don't like gambling then you can diversify - gold, property and cash. On second thoughts - cash and gold - the housing pup is going to quack. HAL
  9. Is this just a stunt? A cheap way for the Fed BOE to spead the notion that the taix stuff has value and to keep the market happy. I am deeply suspicious. Sounds like market manipulation on the cheap. HAL
  10. I hear that tulips are making a come back! Maybe they wll offer loans to speculative tulip buyers Don't worry they will find a way. Or just maybe they have got it into their thick skulls that blowing bubble one after the other in order to delay an orderley correction is bad after all - wonders will never cease?! I am amazed that central bankers and politicians really have the pomposity to believe that they can control markets (by manipulating the cost of credit) even when obviously it has lead to a distortion of the market that is so gross that every day punters (we here on HPC) could see it with our eyes closed. The FSA is a government organisation that has turned a blind eye to this debacle and the chancellor has turned a blind eye to HPI because he has a vested interest in stamp duty and economic growth a the expense of our futures (even thought he promised no HPI and no boom and bust - remember). I cannot see politicans wanting financial and political armagedon ( by throwing money out of a helicoper and thus causing hyper-inflation just to bail their rich buddies out) - because the people (me and you) will castrate them - hang them upside down - and eat their livers for breakfast. People do not take too kindly to having their life savings stolen and their pensions (remember those hard working families?) decimated. If they allow the bubbles to deflate sensibly - and appologise for their pomposity we (the people) may just forgive them for being stupid but never vote them in again - there is an upside - the masses will allow them to live. I do hope they are listening because if everyone has lost everything then no one has anything to lose and when that happens then the mob will take control and they will look for scalps. Sounds like fighting talk - this is a democracy and we can debate the consequences of economic mismanagement - can't we?. HAL
  11. Good point! I call them all jobbing politicians - its a career choice these days and not a moral conviction. The main aim is to get into power, call the shots and line ones pockets - it has become corrupt with a short termism that endevours to stay in power - at all costs - even if the cost is the the future of our country. It is sad that the electorate cannot (is not?) be engaged to the extent that our futures are considered - maybe we deserve what we get - and boy have we got that in spades!!!! HAL
  12. Are the US and UK just fustrated that China is enforcing deflation on our lands? Normally we inflate our way out of trouble - looks like China with its cheap goods are forcing us to confront deflation - which will preserve their buying power. HAL
  13. Are you some kind of delusional fruitcake? Look at house prices - they are an essential item in anyones basket - yet nowhere to be seen in any measure - QED CPI is massaged to suit the governmnet to supress wages. When its all around you you just refuse to see it. HAL
  14. Was'nt it the emergency cut in rates that got us to this position? Why would they just want to repeat the same mistake and make the situation even worse? If they do lower IR in response then they have admitted failure and will be effectively signaling that assets and equities are a one way bet - i.e. fill yer boot coz money is Andrex. HAL
  15. I really honestly believe that we are more likely to have a crash now - by that I mean that on balance we have more factors pointing to a crash than we have for continued HPI growth - I could say the same was true 1,2 and 3 years ago but right now I think that everyone one knows in their heart of hearts that we either get a crash very soon or we really do get hyperinflation which will bring the whole system down (is >10x salary really affordable without essentially free money or massive pay rises to keep up with inflation?). I AM worried about hyperinflation - the thing that keeps me going is a belief that bankers do not want to see paper money become truly worthless, althought I do admit that they are reckless close to their limits here - egged on by fudged CPI figures and the situation masked by continued asset price inflation. On the upside for bears - it is fast ebing recognised that banks trying to sell off this high risk debt is no longer becoming so easy. What would it take to push me over the edge? Average wage inflation to come in at over 5% whilst IR's remain static or fall. What is the true value of a house? Rents really do determine the true value - currently I pay £800 per month rental (nice 3 bed detached with a 1 acre plot) - current 'market' value is £400k - market value according to rental and todays IR's is about £200k - if IR's head up then market value heads down to cope with the same rental values. Good luck with your decision - its everyman for themselves these days - allthought I understand that your decision is philasophical rather than real - i.e. you are not buying yourself. Are you sure that you have really made your mind up? Should you change your status to neither? HAL
  16. What about those that have MEW'd to near full current value or have bought recently - their houses will be worth less than which they can sell at. Will this mean they are stuck in the neg equity trap? HAL
  17. Yeh but - will the market swap rates allow actual borrowing costs to fall? Another way I see this is the government simply wants to control wage inflation and any secondary inflation effects. It aint going to make paying the mortgage off any easier - wage inflation static (and house inflation static or falling) amongst a backdrop of rising real inflation. They are trying to avoid the double wammy they see approaching at a fast rate of knots. Sure its a fiddle - what have they done that is'nt - they have a bias to growth and will use any trick in the book to make your wages smaller whilst making UK Plc's profits bigger - without killing off either. Net result is Mr Average gets poorer and Uk Plc gets to stay in business a while longer. It sucks - what you do with your STR fiat money has become a game for the srewd investor these days - money is ceasing to be a store of wealth for the common man. HAL
  18. I thought it was plan for the best and make sure you have toilet paper or a spare pair of trolleys handy just in case. HAL
  19. Then why not a protection mechanism on the way up? After all it can go up explosively but the plunge team makes it sticky on the way down - is this not manipulation? I would have thought that the 'auto sell' function would have had a software upgrade by now and individual investors would be capable of making these decisions themselves. Sorry do not buy your arguement - I see manipulation - for what it is. HAL
  20. It does seem that 'money quackery' is exactly what is going on - every time either the SM or Housing market is threatened then the Fed/Boe's check books come out to suport the situation (or buy stalling needed IR increases) - there seems to be not just a bias to growth but active manipulation to interfere with market forces - given that it is the case then yes it makes sense to get back in and buy. Your point about wealth preservation is valid but only applies to your paper money as this will be eroded by the actions of the plunge protection team (i.e. greater money creation and higher IR's that are skillfully hidden in the stats). Is this the NWO? Where fiat money has effectively had a sell by date attached to it - use it or lose it? (Brown seems to think so (raid on unused bank accounts). HAL
  21. Is this the NWO? Is this why Brown and other heads of state are confident that there will be no boom and bust - are they engineering a constant boom in something?. Maybe the new world order is about ensuring that 'something' is always driving the economy - housing, the SM, assets anything but gold. That will keep the plebs busy trying to make their earned fiat money from evaporating into nothingness - result = no one saves and even if they did it would lose value so quickley it becomes worthless - with the population constantly struggling to catchup there is no time for them to think or do anything other than take in the TV with state controlled propaganda. HAL
  22. I am very angry that Merv can be allowed to get away with comments like: - I am 'suprised' that HPI is not included in the CPI measures as it represents a substantial amount of family spending and - If we have made bad decisions there cannot have been many of them These two statements show how much contempt he has for the British public. How was it that he was not challenged to explain what the effect on interest rates would have been if HPI was included in the first place? Or to admit that a bubble has formed in the housing market. Or to explain to the great Bristish public that they will now effectively be debt slaves for ever - locked into their over priced houses by excessive debt without the prospect of moving or their kids ever being able to afford a place of their own. Mervs statement is really saying we are going to do everything we can to support House prices "at their current levels" - the prospect of HPI either increasing significantly or decreasing significantly is stating to look like a piped dream if he introduces these measures. I still strongly expect that Merv will wait until HPI is on its downward trajectory before he includes them into the CPI measure - what a bunch of t0ssers - they rig the market when they feel like it. This is like living in the matrix - you cannot even rely on the free unmanipulated market to live - fiat money really is the invention of the devil. Much hacked off HAL
  23. The only benefit is that it will stop any more madness (if implemented quickley) - but again I am sceptical as I expect they will wiat until the housing market has played out FULLY (i.e. has reached it maxed out position) before implementing said measure - thereby stopping its colosal fall. You would think that these guys are really trying to get everyone up to their eyes in debt and then also trying to make them continue spending - i.e. their cake and eat it. HAL
  24. I am sceptical of Mervs comments - he is likely to put house prices into the CPI when house prices are declining - hence trying to prevent the correction. Don't trust these buggers. On another note - BPN Parabas are correct in identifying that the economic climate has changed and are urging the MPC to react by upping rates to 6.75% - they know that now China is competing for commodities that the effect will be to boost inflation in the coming years and the central bankers should be reacting to the global threat before its too late. This for me is the next test - if the MPC are slow to react to the renewed threats of inflation in the coming months its time to change tack and look at the ways to ride the hyperinflationary spiral. HAL
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