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IMHAL

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Everything posted by IMHAL

  1. Good graph on the left GF. If we have extropolate the downward trend of hp's/Ag from 2005 to take us to end 2007 i.e. a less gold to buy it would seem to take us back to the initial low point reached. It seems to be saying that (in the states at least) either now is a good time to get out of gold - as we have reached the first house price/gold ratio low point (~200 Oz / per av house) or wait for the next blip down in three years time. What say you? HAL
  2. You went by chance working for the government? You could sack 100% an still be producing the same thing - nothing! HAL
  3. No - you misunderstand - faceslap said that he was 'interested' is knowing why - he did not say he would do anything about it - that would be against his and NuLabour ethos. HAL
  4. Yeh right - we are in a new cycle!! that old chesnut - are we supposed to go into a new cycle with either a chest full of booty to weather the economic storm or at least be facing the prospect of a bouyant world economy. Neither of which is the case. And Mar is a lightweight. GB a total kn0b - in the 'longterm' he will go down as the chancellor who wasted opportunities and created a nation of debt slaves - Mr Bean - he wishes - if only he could make us laugh!!. HAL
  5. I think they will cut by 0.25% - why? The same old b0llocks they usually spout - 2 yrs out blah blah blah, credit crisis blah blah, low inflation blah blah. We all know that cutting is the wrong thing to do when the nation is bankrupt - but these guys just love to party and look good. They are running scared now - they know that we know that they know that the parties almost over and they are determined not to be the ones to be blamed. The reality as others have pointed out is that mortgage rates are not going down, resets will still happen and the average Britisher will face escalating costs in fuel, food, tax that will dent their feelgood factor and reducing disposable income. Which in about six months time will be followed by a mother of all wage demand 'struggle' as punters feel real pain. This government is cowardly - not only do they not want to face up to the truth about their economic mismanagement but they are happy to blame it on others and misguide the average citizen into believing that it is ok for them to keep spending. Its criminal. HAL
  6. When they only accept gold - expect a witch hunt as the government and the police mobilize to route out the gold from every home in the land - by force it necessary. The poloticos will spin like they have never spun before to create the impression to the nation that gold horders are bad people and are not acting in the national interest (they eat babies don-tcha know) - they will rely on the sheeple and the jealous to bring the booty in - casting the investor in a very bad light indeed - they will of course shroud this as legitimate forced possesion in the national crisis - by offering what they consider a reasonable sum of money - which in reality will be just plain theft. One scenario to protect against. HAL
  7. Yep - that must be the new definition of inflation - these guys make me larf NOT! They seem to be confusing inflation with growth (which then may or may not lead to prices being lowered) - and I do not think that most people would believe them - but then again? I suppose if the politicos (New Labour that is) argue that taking disposable income away from punters is defaltionary - then they should just keep increasing taxes and council tax - Oh - err - they have been doing that - for years I guess if they all fell into a hole tomorrow then at least they would not be missed - we can take some comfort in that - I hope to be on the pushing end when the next general election comes along. NuLabour - What a load of Sh1t! HAL
  8. This too'ing and fro'ing is good at getting the punters to buy a paper every day. What will it be today? Oh - prices are going up - no prices are going down - no prices will be flat - must buy an ES to find out how rich or poor I will be - must buy an ES otherwise how will I know what my financial position is? Just paper selling - they don't sell NEWS papers by putting out the same stuff every day. HAL
  9. We are into LSD teritory - pass the drugs around please, WoOWooooo! Everythings looking good - the world is a beautiful place - drugs for the masses. Cut poverty - make drugs cheaper! These are dangerous time that we live in - the delusonal governing the deluded - we are truly living in the matrix. HAL
  10. Forgot to ad - is'nt it about time Greenspan kicked the bucket - no pearly gates for him me thinks. HAL
  11. I am speachless. These guys know not what they are saying: A move like this will 100% guaranteed ignite hyper inflation - Moral hazard - whats that? If these imbeciles carry on the way they are going then I think we will might as well all stop working. These are the scariest people that I have ever, ever encountered - terrorists have nothing on these guys. We are living through a nightmare created by these guys, just to wake up and find that the very same people are still in charge and the nightmare gets worse. HAL
  12. Lets get it right - technically you got it right - better now? Thread is being covered elsewhere - mod you can delete if you so wish. HAL
  13. Heard it on radio 2 today but did not get the source. It appears that the HMRC is to pass through legislation to take control of the duties of the BoE (interest rate setting?) in case of an emergency. It sounds to me like the gov are taking back powers - does anyone have any more info on this? This is big and will only ensure that GBP goes down down down - inflation goes up up up and a disater is turned into a tragedy. Fasten seat belt - buy gold and sell GBP - we are in for more cack handed gov intervention (much lower IR's, higher inflation and disruption). HAL
  14. 6.8%....... well I never. All I have to say is Krusty Alltop - "London, Paris, NewYork these places will never see a house price slow down as everyone wants to live there". Get ready for lots of hat eating . HAL
  15. Yeh I remember seeing this pile of tosh a while back - the idea of providing negative IR's so that money decayed over time - It is theoretical nonsense. Negative IR's are the exact equivalent of Printing More Money (ony faster and more transparent) The guys who came up with this idea is barking - money would cease to be viewed as a store of value and very quickley people would go back to the barter system or gold. It would flop spectaculary - the authorities much prefer to use the tool of printing as it is much less transparent so the populace is conned by the slow drip drip of real inflation (expanded money supply) stealing into their store of fiat. HAL
  16. I think what Brown means by an early warning system - is a quango that will consist of a few dozen of his mates, paid at least 200k per year each with BTL portfolios, employing an support team of 1000, that hires consultants to assess what the IMF is really saying. In this way the advise given by the IMF can be thought through......... and then disregarded as scaremongering. What Brown really wants is to rewind 10 years, have a nice easy time spending our money and basking in the easy monetary climate of yesteryear...ahhhhh those where the days. HAL
  17. Dunno about that - there is a saying that goes when a recession occures they tend to find one trigger and then blame that [in hindsight]. Its a popular myth to disolve responsibility. It puts the event out of the control of the authorities [unforseen and unforseeable event] and therefore not the responsibility of those that should have been preventing it from getting to that stage. I think that the scene was set for a major fall at the time - we had a bble in both housing and stocks - I like to see it as "a bubble that was looking for a pin". We are in a similar situation - its just a matter of time before the bubble finds its pin. HAL
  18. Great replies BTW. I see it like this - why would banks continue to overextend their lending when they know that the risk of not getting their money back is getting greater? From the consumer side - they have signalled that they have already reached and gone beyond their limits, they can't stand the pressure no more and will walk away from the debts. From the producers side - they are putting up prices as resources are getting more expensive, they cannot and wll not take the hit on their margins. If you lower IR's you get more competition for resources (higher base costs) and then more debt and defaults due to higher inflation - oh no can't have that because we have just come from there. They have painted themselves into a corner - the only sensible thing that they can do is to steer a steady ship (keep IR's steady) and take the pain. They want to inflate the problem away but they cannot do this unless 1) they have wage inflation or 2) they make the state smaller and give massive tax breaks - they need to fire up the consumer but the comsumer aint got no cash. My theory is that the delay between general price inflation and wage inflation will scupper their grand plan to inflate the problem away - the ship will already be sinking by the time new money enters the scene - all they are doing is making it worse by lowering IR's, because it has already hit the buffers, they are reducing the ability of the consumer to spend by taking away discretionary money by stoking inflation. HAL
  19. I live in E Anglia - the local property rag has gone from 115 pages to just 55 in the space of two weeks. My theory is that the lack of properties in the local rag are due to EA's not advertising before Xmas (no point) - it also saves the EA's money which they must be short of. Also another observation is that the EA's are advertising how well they have done in 2007 - lots of pages on all the properties they have sold - but few properties advertised. The last few weeks have also seen less and less 'reduced' properties advertised. My conclusion is that the EA's have colluded in the run up to Xmas (when it is traditionally quiet) to give the masses the impression that a) all is well there is a shortage c) not much is falling However if you contrast what was being advertised just one month ago - 115 pages - lots reduced and even EA's with statements saying that the 'market isn't as bad as the press makes it out to be' - it all smacks of a desperate last defiant stand before reality hits home. The new year will out this collusion as EA's realise that they cannot spin themselves out of this one - they are going to have to reduce and get selling. HAL
  20. Question Time? More like.......... Waste Of Time. Krusty - thick as a pile of sh1te and mad as a bag of monkeys Blears - scary as a ferel cat and devious as a politician with something to hide Morgan - the village idiot without the uniform Kenedy - respect but another one of his off nights Pattern - clear, clever and a leader The conservative need to dump that Krusty air head before she damages them. She has adequatley demonstrated that she does not understand the market dynamics. What made me laugh was that she was introduced as 'the housing expert' - do politicians not realise that she is a presenter and she reads a script - its like getting JR Ewing from teh Dallas soap to run an oil company. Bad decision. Krusty OUT! before she damaged the opposition - and god knows we need a good opposition now [thank god for Vince] HAL
  21. I think you are onto something there - theory - here goes. The yanks have been reducing IR for a while and are suffering from a plunging dollar - this is leading to talk of hyper-inflation - they know that the game is up and if they don't stop their game of lowering IR's then they will go the way of Zimbabwe and the dollar will be worth toilet paper. So what do they do? They get together with all the other CB's to tell the world that they are acting in concert - the world says hey... if they are all acting together then the dollar and the other currencies are effectively joined at the hip. The Yanks are effectively looking to other CB's to lessen the effects of their IR policy - in effect they are exporting USA inflation expectations around the world - yikes!!!!. HAL
  22. This is looking very ominous. How will the markets react to this? Will this mean that the stock market will go exponential in a fight to tie up money to something that will preserve wealth?. [hence Buffets move into utilities?] I would have thought that gold would now start to move up up up. Could someone could enlighten with what the implications are. HAL
  23. With you all the way on that. These NuLabour guys have been taking the p1ss for years now - high paid jobs for the boys - planning developments for funding buddies - the list is endless and compounded by initiativitise - a constant money-go-round of new policies that are conciled to the bin of hare brained ideas that only a wall of highly paid NuLabour policy makers with a wall of our money could possibly dream up. They might as well be spending money on digging holes and filling them in again - it would do less harm. Its time for the NuLabour socialist experiment to end. HAL
  24. No mate average salaries for a factory worker in Greece is ~8-10k Euros - house prices are about 120-150k Euros for a two/three bed flat in a small town outside a city. They have it worse than us - however they by enlarge have inherited money (more of the population own land - so lots of old mony exsists) - this is what they are living on - the old money will come to an end eventually - but this may take a generation. Non the less they are finding it hard and they will find it harded. HAL
  25. All good questions. My take on this is that the banking deregulation experiment has failed - the banks expected ordinary people to be rational about what they borrow, especially when they consider that their homes are at stake - that has proved to not be the case. So - we had profligate lending matched my profligate borrowing - followed by laws which minimised the impact of arrears and viola! we now have a system where the banks and the whole system is a hostage to the people [the indebted ones that is]. So now the system is deemed to be not operating in a self correcting mode - the pain of correction is thought to be too much for the system to bear and may collapse. The net result is an all too visible hand on the tiller by the politicos in the most sensitive part of the financial system- this will inevitably result in unintended consequences. These consequences may take time to appear, but appear they will. [see the USA freezing of IR for subprime]. When these consequences manifest themsleves - the politicos will be tempted to rig the market again [to rebalance the problems they have caused] - this is a sure fire path to self slow corrosive destruction. The lowering of IR's at this point in time also send out the wrong message - they are saying we will always come to your rescue - so don't warry - if it gets bad we will help you [Northern Crock, IR cut in 2005, Will Hutton with his balmy ideas]. The BoE are now in doodoo teritory - we know that they know that we know that its all based on HPI - without it - there is no growth - so they have no option but to try to keep HPI going - the problem is that they also know that any more growth in HP's will result in certain destruction of the economy and certain depression. There only hope is for a softish landing in HP's followed by moderate 'under the radar' inflation [wage and real] to moderate its effects. The problem with their soft landing scenario as we all know is that when momentum starts to build the outcomes are uncertain - if HP's start to go down as a result of high LIBOR and credit tightness then they can kiss their soft landing goodbye and we will have a recession anyway. There will no doubt be a period now where we all assess what the mpact of this rate cut is - if LIBOR comes down then they will have succeeded in making everyone of use a debt slave - with savings or not. HAL
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