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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by IMHAL

  1. 2009 means the start of 2009 i.e. -17% from peak by the end of the year. HAL
  2. Correct - lowest point 2015 / 2016. HAL
  3. I have taken the graph at face value i.e. non inflation adjusted - it should give a more conservative level of real falls than the last crash. When you say inflation what do you mean? CPI/RPI/real inflation or some other government made up measure. Given that the last graph shows peak ~£115k and low ~£70k this kind or correlates to what I experienced in the last fall i.e. ~35% falls in actual price. HAL
  4. This is what I think will happen - see attached. I've taken the shape of the last crash and imposed it on the current one - I know that we are falling faster this time - but I'd rather be conservative and be pleasantly suprised than the other way around. Also if you notice all the other crashes are kinda symetrical - so this re-e nforces for me at least my view. Probably best time to buy 2011 for those that cannot wait too long (biggest falls in shortest time). Lowest point looks like 2015 - 2006. All in all we will get the following: 2009 = -17% from peak 2010 = -27% from peak 2011 = -38% from peak 2012 = -44% from peak 2015 = -53% from peak HAL HPCchart.doc HPCchart.doc
  5. Lets look at the bright side - neither have a clue how to fix the current situation and neither can fix it. Given that the next general election will be in 2010 then the crash will be pretty much 80% complete so at that stage it does not matter what the Tories do (or Labour for that matter). The market will take its course - it is diassapointing that the Tories are proving to be as spineless as Labour - I would have given them more credit than that - perhaps they are just trying to buy as many votes as poss knowing full well that the issue will be a non issue by then. HAL
  6. I really do not know why they don't ditch this shared equity thing - its about as hip as flares. Instead they should just give tax incentives or tax payers money to first time buyers - say a cash lump sum of £100k for any married (or cohabiting) couple that did not have a house (no cheating now! )- that would do it just about do it. No more crash. Or they could just announce that everyone in the land will get a 25% pa increase (to match their own). That would also just about keep the party rolling. What a bunch of muppets - I agree this shared equity thing will be fun to watch - these duds is feckd. HAL
  7. No mate - its just called experience! If you live it you can learn from it and use it later on. God may have had a hand in it but I'd like to think he'd say "its nothing personal its just business". Given that millions where affected I'm sure it was not a personal vendetta HAL
  8. That sounds about right for nominal falls in the last crash- I expect that figure to be easilly exceeded this time round as we have had more on the upside and inflation has been lower - so 50% nominal falls do not seem to be out of order - nation wide. HAL
  9. I was caught up in the last crash - I bought my first property in 89 (SE england) and sold in 1993 - I re entered the market in 95 - I looked around in 1992 and I could buy a 4 bed property semi for no much more than I bought a 2up2down terrace - it was depressing. I bought the 2up2down for 72k in 89 and sold for 50k in 1993 - inflation was running circa 10% at that time so I make it a greater than 50% drop in real term - the nominal fall was ~30% from the peak when inflation was that high - if I'd have waited till 1995 when it hit rock bottom it would have fallen more. Those nominal prices do not look right by my experience - either from selling my house or from what I obesrved from looking around the market at the time to buy my next house - go figure. Maybe tractor production was high even then HAL
  10. You are all crazy as coconuts! It only takes 1 cash buyer to affect mark to model - and as someone else said there are plenty of buyers still , even if half of them our effectively out of the market now - that is still plenty to affect market valuation. HAL
  11. Seems pretty generous at the moment - they should end up with many properties as sellers recognse that 15% BMV is pretty good - trouble is when houses fall by more than 15% this company will go POP. HAL
  12. To stand up for some of these organisations - they usually take over failing departments with a cast iron guarantee of making it more efficient - something that this government is incapable of. The growth of the above organisations is down to the government either delegating the nasty task of sacking people or putting stuff off balance - governmental cowardice writ large. HAL
  13. Yvette Cooper is a vile, arrogant and repulsive person - I wish I had watched the interview - I bet she looked like a bulldog chewing a wasp. HAL
  14. Banks filled their boots whilst the regulators and this incompetent government stood idly by counted their taxes and pouring money into the public sector - governments are supposed to ensure that this country is governed in a sustainable way and for the good of its citizens - NuLabour has monumentally failed in this task. NuLabour is already the party of zero responsibility - they blame everyone except themselves - its time the buck stopped. HAL
  15. For anyone who has any doubt that Labour's policy has been to to ramp and keep house prices high whilst enslaving the masses - look no further. This is not a new policy its just the old policy outed. Labour are like a wounded beast they are deparate and they will make great mistakes from here on in - a very dangerous animal indeed. HAL
  16. Labour have cheated the poor and endebted the middle and working classes - they did nothing to prevent the unsusainable bubble in the housing market and did nothing to stop the divide between the rich and poor, all the while riding the upwave and taking their cut in taxes used to buy votes with high paid non-jobs in the public sector and creating a dependency culture amongst the bone idle ...................................... and now you are saying they should DO SOMETHING!! Well in my view I think they have done enough damage) - its time these well intentioned but maladjusted individuals steped aside before they DO SOMETHING ELSE! Sorry unclefudgly - but you are daft. HAL
  17. Look - the politicians will reply to your letter with the same old rubbish about changes to CGT and shared equity and about building affordable homes and keeping interest rates low - its all cr ap! I do wish interviewers when they have the chancellor or his grubbyness Gordon 'the party and country destoyer' Brown would just ask two question: 1 - "when are houses going to get cheaper?" - this cuts through all of their responses and sorry excuses for ramping house prices And in response to the verbal diatribe that will eminate from the politicians mouth - cue shared equity etc etc 2 - "how will that make housing cheaper?" This will lead to the politician talking about affordability - i.e. less repayments for less equity The interviewer could then end his interview with - "so your policy is to encourage more people to take on greater debt for less share in their homes". That would go down well with the public: :angry: :angry: :angry: HAL
  18. I think its quite simple - you buy gold as a hedge if you can afford to, say 5-10% of what you can afford - an amount that you would be willing to do without for say 10 yrs. I for one do no trust the BoE the FED or these governments to not make monumental errors and totally screw the system. For me its an insurance policy - in this way if gold goes down it should mean that the system is getting back to normal - I sleep easy knowing my money will not be eroded into loo roll. It gold goes to the moon - then I know that my paper money will be worth much less and my gold will have great value - I sleep easy. I do not morn gold going down and I do not rejoice when it goes up - I bought fairly early and even if it goes below the price I paid, no great shakes - its still an insurance policy because you cannot trust these feckers. If everyone kept some gold as an insurance policy then the banks would be very careful about how they treated their servants - lest we all decided to use that as a means of exchange. Some gold is good for you - buy some (when it goes a bit lower), keep it and forget about it. HAL
  19. Zimbabwe-nomics!!! Look we are earning more - the stock market is rallying - everyday I have more dollars in my pocket.... Unfortunately they are worthless... HAL
  20. Can't play music for toffee but I can sure make groovy 'hot bottle' valve amplifiers and horn speakers that do it for me HAL
  21. I don't think that there is a single answer - there are many drivers which will over time force prices downards. Got to remember that those with large equity and a good steady income will not be setting the market prices for houses on the way down - that is the job of the various flavours of distressed sellers. Currently I'd say that we are at the end of the denial phase for house prices falling and almost at that phase for declining economic activity - a kind of Willie-Coyotee moment for the economy - we think its still Ok but we havn't looked down. Soon: 1/ The stalling economy will mean more redundancies forcing people to sell quicker than they want to - and hence accept lower prices 2/ Immigrants will start to move back - this will have an effect of Landlords - most will go bust and liquidate 3/ Uncertainty in the market and housing will make buyers hold back 4/ Mortgage equity withdrawal is drying up - this means less discretionary spend = less jobs in the highstreet 5/ Some sellers will panic when they see prices falles gather pace and will want out 6/ Debt will start to get the better of some and they will need to sell Most homeowners will stay put because they cannot sell or cannot move - they do not make the market prices. Those that will need to sell will set the prices - the banks will also limit the amount that buyers can pay - a double wammy helping the market to 're-adjust'! HAL
  22. Calling the exact bottom of the market is not necessary. The only way that the market can go up is when a few things coincide 1) lending multiples increase and or restictions are eased 2) the number of completions starts to resume its previous trend 3) wage inflation takes the average HP level to ~3.5 time average earnings. If you monitor these and start to find say 3-6 months of consistency then you will have an early indication that the market may be on the rise or about to rise. On the other hand if you cannot wait for the full ride to play out then I'd say pile back in when you see 30-40% decreases from this point i.e. average HP prices hitting ~£100-120k - in that way you will not lose too much more on the down side. HAL
  23. Again - I agree with your and the previous posters caution over extrapolation - and again I will say that if you look past the numbers you will see real market sentiment at work - when people are aware of what they perceive to be real losses - they will react - we have just reached that point - next stage is panic. The current market cycle is not so different to the previous one - excess lending and euphoria, all the same arguements but this time the rise has been bigger and I expect the downside to swing negative harder. So not quite a one to one extrapolation. On the Miras issue - the media will always pick one trigger to feed the masses - this time it is sub-prime in the USA - not so different really - same boom and bust - just a different soundbite. HAL
  24. I agree that circumstances are different and no two crashes are plyed out exactley the same - but, and this is a big but - once negative sentiment takes over then the same dynamics drive the market - in short we are passing the denial phase and ae about to enter the panic stage! It is going to get faster on the down side from her on in. Also to the other poster - yes I also think the red line is set too high - we will easily see that passed probably by the end of this year. HAL
  25. Folks, If you look at the shape of the last peak/slide in house prices starting at the peak in 1989 (see home page) - you will notice a period of about 1 year where house prices slide quite gradually from the peak until 1990 i.e. until it reached YOY negative as it has just done - the decline from that point on becomes precipitous. I put to you that we have now reached the same point i.e. we are the equivalent stage in the cycle as 1990 - I think the ride down is going to be spectacular - I would not be suprised to see a 20% or greater falls in house prices from May 2008 to May 2009. I say greater because 1) house prices have risen further this time as a percentage of take home pay and 2) nominal prices are not as tainted by inflation as they where back then - i.e. wage demands are suppressed more now than then. We are entering the phase that America has just gone through - and America is entering the second stage of declines - more gradual but it will last for 2-3 years and then it will bottom out and stay there for another 2 years. Buckle up! - the ride has just started. HAL
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