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Everything posted by IMHAL

  1. You could be right - there are no certainties as the rules are rewritten at will. But I think that the gov will give way to pay rises LED by the public sector - they know that inflation is the route out and will want to minimise the pain in an easy way - i.e. bigger pay packets. That way they will get what they want at the ultimate expense of the all the savers and the double wammy to tax payers in general. Make no mistake we are still going through a recession but the path has been laid for a shallower bottom financed through general inflation, including wage inflation. I agree that the time of the bottom has been brought forwards by 3 or 4 years with a bottom now set for end of 2010 or 2011. The unintended consequences will be much higher inflation than most expect - > 10% easilly. It is going to be a hrad ride for those with debts still over the comming years and there will be austerity. As Irwin Steltzer asked the government minister yesterday on NewsNight - "when will the piper be paid" (through higher inflation). I also think that NuLabour will get in in the next election and this will be why pay packets will get bigger - pressure on the gov to act in the face of hardship. This will ultimately lead to a 70's style stagflation and wage spirals that Labour governments allways cause through their interventionist policies. HAL
  2. I'll back you up on that analysis - when we start seeing payrises in line with current inflation (which won't be too long IMHO) then we will start to see the drop of in house prices start to taill-off in preparation for the next phase of rises. I do think we will be suffering from 10% plus inflation before long and wage rises to match. HAL
  3. Been stocking up for the last few months - wife thinks I'm mad but I just say that if we go on holiday you insist we buy insurance so then you would insure against financial armagedon - so she bought it and we now have 30kg of rice/20kg of past and tins of stuff to survive for 3 months min in our larder. Even invested in an air rifle............rabits Everone needs to get real - you need insurance and a buffer coz these cowboys are making it up as they go along. HAL
  4. Oh yes The Monkey - how could one forget him/her - Mon'key sayz.......... and Muttley but Levy Process for high order thinking. Jeez!
  5. It is if you thought your saving where safe and now you have to sleep and wait for Gormless Buffoon and Ali Comical Darling to tell you all is well whilst waiting 3 months for your saving to be unlocked. The markets will tank tomorrow. HAL
  6. Maybe we could have a tiered system of recogition with vintage contributors as keywords: Dr Bubb - 2003 - sadly missed TTRTR - 2004 - best forgotten Crash2006 - 2005 - luckily still around but just a bit early CGNO/Goldfinger - 2006/2007 - before their time Others of note have been - EDM - star trader and early warning system - Durch - sound as a pound - Grumpy old man - just grumpy - ?_! - Insight and sense - Sh1t - I also missed RB - start poster and probably the most prolific poster of news items worthy of note - sorry if I've missed any other stars - its late and the beer is good Ones to forget - Bruno (bonkers), TTRTR (live bait), PG (sorry PG but you turned wierd), ClaireInSpain (thick), UncleFuggly (Labour lover) Myself I was here from 2003 onwards under the names of Red, HAL and now IMHAL due to problems with login details etc. I can say this was and is a monumental site - I will remember this time - awwww! I'm getting all sentimental now. HAL
  7. Sorry to be elusive but I am keeping that for myself incase I have to make a bid - current stuation and all that. HAL
  8. I am seeing a few here in Norfolk - one original price £785k (4 bed with 14 acreas) down to £575k and now to £525k - the agent would like me to re-submit my original offer of £450k (which was initially refused). I have not. Prices are starting to move down but they are still the exceptions - we need to see another 3 months worth of declines and some redundancies before the mainstream catches on. When the crash hits -20% and new houses are appearing for 30% less than those that have been on the market for 6+months then I think the reality will hit those with inflated prices. Also every estate agent I speak to admits that properties are selling for at least -10% off asking prices - trouble is that asking price is already between 10% and 20% over reality for those that have been on the market for a while. There is dislocation in the market - not until the market gets moving by force i.e. redundancy will the new prices be made. I see this happening by the end of the year. HAL
  9. Don't worry Tuffers - each country will go into isolation mode. The banks will be nationalised - martial law - rationing - mega inflation etc..... You will still get your money... but by that time you won't be able to buy bog paper with it. Sorry - don't think I helped much HAL
  10. Ok - my turn. I think that the system if it collapses it will collapse slowly - every VI wants the system to stay intact as they rely on pulling in their investments from those in debt. Initially I believe that there will be a deflationary environment (but would not want to put all my eggs in that particular basket) - the governmeents have no option as they and every sod knows that excessive debt got us here and any action to the contrary will precipitate a rush to extract moeny from banks further eroding confidence in savings. Eventually when the govs realise that this thing is just too big and painful to tackle in the traditional way then they will turn on the taps and spray people with money bringing about a large bout of inflation - this will cause the next boom and for a while everyone will think its Ok but we will get hyperinflation. When that happens we are going down the road of Zimbabwe. Now directly to your question - what happens if the banking sstem collapses suddenly - the government will take control of the media, we will have martial law together with draconian rules about movement of money and assets outside of the country, price controls, limited money available to be extracted from banks, questions asked about what you will be spending it on (i.e. house purches allowed - but gold off the menu). In addition farm land will be under the control of the government as they will want to produce to feed the nation. We will in essense become a comunist state overnight. HAL
  11. ....... Petrol £4 a litre Groceries £500 a weekly shop Inflation - the offocial doctored measure >15% and the real one 200% Now we wellcome the new poverty - every one can afford their house but no one can eat or go to work - game over! HAL
  12. Deleveraging = deflation? ....... yes initially. I heard the dreaded words come out of the business presented on Newnight yesterday - he said that the government has a number of tools at their disposal - like slashing interest rates and printing money. Now it won't be too long before they excerise this nuk option - then we be looking at what looks like a boom swiftly to be followed by high-inflation. HAL
  13. RB - nice lyrics but I recommend staying out of the X-factor HAL
  14. Check out www.theend.com for a really entertaining and scary read. HAL
  15. I read that article yesterday (generally not my kind of paper BTW) - I thought it was one of the best articles to explain the potential impact of this meltdown, the causes and how this lowly government is downplaying the severity. HAL
  16. Correction! NuLabour would hand the money at preferential rates to the very poor and to the very rich. In exchange for this the rich would agree to make the middle classes poor and the poor very poor. In exchange for state handouts the very poor would agree to forego any rights they may have and be dependant on the state. When all but the rich are very poor, then NuLabour would eliminate the few very rich - which by then will be popular with the voters - its quite clever and very dangerous.
  17. So why bother having kids if what we are progressing to is farming them off to the NuLabour collective? The basic idea of state intervention in this area is so stupid and so repugnant I am suprised that you take it so lightly. If you really want you kids to play with others then get together with other parents and let the kids play FFS. But I guess that like most chavs, they have neither the social skill needed to talk to and cooperate with other parents nor the desire to really look after their kids - they rather the state did it for them. The NuLabour experiment is starting to show results - penalise people less people, breed sheeple more sheeple
  18. I can - the current system is based on exponential growth - if you don't keep increasing the money supply in an exponential way it barfs up at ya. Hence - the need to add more credit. HAL
  19. There is no complex conspiracy theory - its just lie upon lie which leads to one inevitable place - they have to make us believe in them and this system - and ultimalety they will do what is necessary to achieve this. No one knows what the big picture is - not even the politicians - they just want the power and will do anything to keep control - good or bad - at this point they have a concious choice to make. Protecting their power base is paramount and ultimatley they will brush aside all concerns and at the extreem anything that stands in their way. There is no incompetence here - just the same weakness of man. HAL
  20. I feel you deserve a serious answer. It is not fair. Those that run the place are not good people - they have serious agendas that are not in the best interest of the people they lead [1] - they are more interested in gaining power and using that to further their interests and the friends that help them. Ultimatley they are only interested in themselves. The system is quite rigged - now transparently so to those that look. I too felt angry years ago when I found out that the market was not free. The money you work for can be eroded at the whim of governments, and no matter what you do, it cannot protect you from your own state. You are a slave that has been conditioned to think you are free - unfortunately (or fortunately) you woke up and realised. Think of all the people out there that cannot see past the thinning veneer of democracy and freedom that our state proclaimes and has the audacity to lecure other people about - do you really want to be like them again? You have seen reality and that is a good thing - you are just grieving for the ideal world view that you have been conditioned to believe in and are angry that you have been lied to. Use this knowledge not necessarily to play the game better but to get along without diverting you from what is important in life - your family and yourself. Invest in them. [1] If politicans did consider the wellfare of their citizens then they would helped them to become responsible and not dependent on the state, they would encourage saving and they would answer questions put to them without telling half truths and lies. Instead we have the opposite. Actions speak louder than words. HAL
  21. Or better still if they want to get the market going they just need to send everyone without a house a cheque for say £100k each - we can guarantee another brief splurg on house prices then. Or better still just keep sending out cheques to everyone then we can have growth as well. I can't see any downsides to this. HAL
  22. No downward bets on anything these day - every ones a winner don'tcha know - NuLabour policy! Seriously our fathers (or grandfathers) fought wars - what for? - not to put this scum in place just for them to rig every market and destroy our freedoms. HAL
  23. I agree with not kidding ourselves - this whole system is so corrupt now that I wonder why we allow any speculation at all - it only seems to be for the benefit of those favoured by the government. We do live in a fasict state - wellcome to the new world order folks. So next time they ask you to fight for your country - well - my response will be f-k you! HAL
  24. I have been wondering how safe mutual institutions are like Nationwide - they are not PLC's so cannot be traded and shareholders are their depositors. This means that they get no exposure to the panick of the stock market and so long as they have been reasonably prudent they should be Ok - in fact they should be safer than banks. Anyone know any different? HAL
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