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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by Wad

  1. Get a copy of the contract you wil be expected to sign and contact the LL directly to make sure he has authorised the agent to let the property out. Negotiate direct with LL to see if he/she will get the agent to reduce the fee.

    Do not hand over any money whatsoever unless you have a copy of the contract you wil be expected to sign and you are happy with it. Hand over only £50 to cover the credit check and then only hand over the rest once the contract has been signed.

  2. Sky are running a report along their strapline this morning quoting a report by Propertyfinder.com saying that FTBs still find it cheaper to buy than rent.

    It is being covered in the press as well.



    I cannot find the study on www.propertyfinder.com but I am in agreement with the findings that an FTB is still priced out and until mortgage rates drop (and the amount of deposit required drops) then FTBs will not come in to the market.

    I am a lot older than the average FTB with a bigger house but I currently rent a large house at £2000 p.c.m. Assuming my house could be bought for £500k and I could get a 100% mortgage and that the the cost of insurance and mantaining the property is equal to 3 months rent the cost of mortgage would be £17,500 at a 3.5% base rate tracker rate on 100% of the property value. This is slightly less than the net rent of £18,000.

    Unfortunately, I could not buy my house for £500k - it would come on the market at £600k so we have about a 15% drop to go before the cost of mortgage is definitely less than renting.

  3. Thank god for that. Where would i see the plate with the number?


    Thats a relief. I can go to bed without thinking about it now.

    Actually, I am a bit frightened of watery things so I might have nightmares. I do divining and I once did some for a friend and was stood on top of a hidden drinking water well in his garden and I could feel my heart vibrating in my chest and felt like I was drowning. I know that sounds weird but then again I have been struck by lightening as well as electrocuted as has my mother.

  4. Ok i will pass it tomorrow again and i will take my proper camera as opposed to my phone. I will walk around it and get some higher res pictures. Actually i will see what tree's are close to it climb up and get a shot of the top. (Subject to weather and climbing conditions). If i fall or get muddy though my mom will bloody kill me.

    Be very careful. I am not suggesting you climb on the thing. It might be dangerous. Just ask the council someone is bound to know.

  5. Ok - I just spent 30 minutes of my life looking at the thing on Google and Multimaps aerial photos.

    It is not recorded on the Ordnance Survey map. I can see the 'hatch' in the top of it though. It is at about 390 feet above sea level. It might be the top of a shaft or an underground reservoir.

    Having started us all off sortofsilver is going to HAVE to find out from the local council and report back.

  6. Go and have a look at the Ordanace Survey map for the site - it may have a label attached to it on the map.

    Do you have a local postcode that is nearby?

    EDIT: It looks like a concrete base with metal rods sticking out that would have been used to attach a metal structure on top of - perhaps an antenna as other suggest?

  7. I see that the Cambridge University Press is planning to reduce/close its printing operations in Cambridge. Will not help house prices as the 160 positions lost will be multiplied by three in the local economy.


    THE "world's oldest printing business" announced plans on Thursday to axe nearly 160 jobs in response to advances in technology.

    Cambridge University Press, which has been operating in the city for 425 years, said that 134 positions were likely to be lost from a 170-strong printing team in Cambridge, with 25 of the 50 publishing jobs also made redundant.

  8. An interesting post.

    I agree with a lot of it. There are cash buyers out there - BUT - as others have said we are in a transition phase with cash buyers getting 25% off now because of the credit crunch but I suspect a further 15 - 25% drop after that will be due to job losses. Oxford has not yet seen the effect of job losses but it will.

    There are a limited number of people with cash and once they are in the market they cannot come in again without borrowng. At some point even cash buyers even if there are any left will fear going in because of job losses and rapidly falling prices

    My view based on earlier house price crashes and other markets is that prices always overshoot on the up and down side.

    It is too early now to but I do think that late summer early Autumn 2009 we will see fair value and then real 'cheap' houses in 2010. The real risks now are evenly balanced between going in too early and waiting too long before hyperinflation takes off.

    To be honest - I am prepared to go in slightly too early to avoid the consequences of hyperinflation destroying my savings. I suspect many will wait too long because they are traumatised by the drop.

  9. When the FTSE is at 3000 and Dow down to 6000 it may be time to start putting together a LONG TERM strategy* to get back into the market. Some stocks will do well:

    I tend to agree. I have not much faith in technical analysis but go and look at a long term chart for S&P 500 here:

    http://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXSP:.INX (extend the graph to Max)

    Massive multi year support level at around 800. If it breaks that the next support is way lower at around 600 and then 400.

    Similar patterns on all the indices on both sides of the Atlantic. The 800 support has been tested a few times in the last week or so and it bounced off but if it goes through decisively I think we wil be beginning the next and final leg down in the stock market.

    At the bottom its time to go in even if you don't feel like it and everyone is in panic. I am aiming at UK firms but my sights are on low geared good cash flow generators that are dominant in their markets.

  10. Agree with both Alfie Moon and chichi

    I am in the process of moving my life to Worcester and I have been trying to negotiate with EAs and also private individuals as well as institutions for sale and I have to say asking prices are deluded.

    In my estimation, asking prices have to halve in some cases. The place has huge future potential but there is no manufacturing or serious professional services industry in Worcester and prices have to fall to reflect that. Only if residential and commercial prices get realistic then the place can start to recover. Reminds me a lot of York about 30 years ago.

    I have a friend who knows Worcester really well and she told me seriously a year ago not to buy a house in Worcester until the bottom is reached as the place always spikes up in a boom and then collapses. A taxi driver even told me that he bought commercial property years ago - the price collapsed in the early 1990s and he sold out for 50% off what he had bought for.

    Residential rents are certainly falling and have fallen at least 10% in the last 6 months due to forced landlords who would like to sell but cannot. There are loads of empty shops everywhere as well so commercial rents must be collapsing althougth I am not in that market.

    That said I have seen a few places where older people selling houses are clearly getting a bit desperate and starting to drop their asking price.

    Goodness knows how the 10 - 12 estate agents near Foregate St are survivng. They are not selling anything.

  11. There is no conspiracy.

    The developers want to cut the price of the affordable homes by £20k but in return they want to reduce the number of affordable homes in the development from 11 down to 7. In other words, the developer wants to offset the loss of revenue on the affordable homes by selling the 4 that will no longer be affordable homes at a higher price (i.e as normal homes).

    The council have not prevented the developer form cutting prices - they have refused to let them offset their loss by reducing the number of affordable homes.

    This bit of the article explains the decision.

    Alex Child, director of the Planning Bureau, McCarthy and Stone's planning agents, said: "The element of affordable housing is essentially an agreed subsidy from the overall development. In this market, to make the affordable housing truly affordable, the sale prices of them need to reduce but this means the income to both the developer and the affordable housing provider also reduces.

    "To compensate for this, we asked the council to consider less units being subsidised as affordable housing as in our view it would be wrong for the agreed subsidy to effectively be increased by the reduced sales prices required."The important thing is to reach an agreement so that these properties can be properly managed and do not remain vacant. That helps no one."

    Bottom line is that it seems the council has concluded the developer needs to cut prices because retirees cannot sell their own home but the developer should take the hit on its profits. I agree with the council.

  12. At $24m a year to store 2m barrels priced at $33/barrel, the futures price would have to be a lot higher than the current spot for this to work; is it?

    Here s your answer. Its at the bottom of the article.

    Morgan Stanley hired its tanker at $68,000 a day, the two brokers said. That works out at $1.02 a barrel a month, based on a 2 million-barrel cargo. Benchmark U.S. oil futures are trading at an average of $3.65 more than the previous month between February and June.

    Add to the cost of monthly storage about 1% of the purchase price of the crude (i.e $0.50) per month to cover interest, insurance and evaporation and that still leaves a tidy risk free profit plus a free option on a huge amount more profit if the oil market flips into a backwardation.

  13. They are not speculating. They are buying physical oil, and simultaneously selling futures against it so the oil is hedged. By storing the oil on the tanker they collect the diffference between the spot oil price and the futures price minus the cost of finance, insurance and hiring the ship. Standard risk free arbitrage.

    Not many people know this but Citigroup (Philip Bothers commodity trading arm) used to own oil refineries. Deutsche bank also owns a gold processing facility in Germany - produces small retail sized bars for sale via Deutsche bank branches.

  14. Are you on about the discussion that happened at around 7.45-8.00 and the guy actually named Tim Congdon who was on with Vince Cable?

    Didn't hear the interview but when I clicked on this thread I was thinking:

    'Tim Collins - isn't he the bloke who delivered the rousing speech to the Royal Irish Regiment before going into Iraq in 2003? What does he know about banking?'

    More likely to be Tim Congdon I think. Good speech by Tim Collins though - he might give a good one on getting out of this financial crisis if asked as well.

  15. Increasingly I am beginning to hear the 'repatriation of assets and liabilities' as the solution to this crisis. In an international finance centre such as London there is no way that the local economy can be expected to bail out a banking system that has taken on assets and liabilites around the world. This is why the US and UK and Iceland and Ireland have suffered so badly in thsi crisis. The more open an economy the mor elikely it is to have toxic debt in its banks that far exceed the capability of he local Govt to sort it out.

    Each country needs to sort out its own mess, indeed the Netherlands seems to be proposing this with the ABN Amro part of RBS. In effect the biggest Dutch bank would be nationalised by the Netherlands Govt and sorted out by them and not teh Uk Govt. It seems the only way forward but I fear that it will lead to trade barriers being erected around other goods and services as well - after all once one has nationalied and protected ones own national capital market it is but a short step to nationalising and protectng the rest of your economy.

  16. What to buy? Seeds, barley, wheat? as much as you can? - will it be worth more than gold? and its going to get more expensive on an exponential scale as hyper inflation takes off.... there is no question about that now - in my opinion hyperinflation is all but guaranteed.

    They are destroying our currency in order to ram home a one world currency.................................................

    Your only have to look at the exchange rate right now to see where this is going.

    Just a thought - 1 acre of land grows about 2 metric tonne of wheat on a low intensity input farm. That is only enough to supply two loaves of bread every day to 3 families for a year.

    EDIT: The UK cannot grow enough food to feed itself and never has since WW1 - unless a lot of people die.

  17. What I am seeing is a newish phenomenon of formerly fairly well off older people living in large country houses suddenly trying to sell the 'the major part' of the house but hoping to keep a wing or an annex back so they can keep on living there.

    It just is not going to work. No one buys a country house to have the old owner living in the back garden. These sellers will eventually capitualte as many have borrowed againt the equity in the property. These types are also likley to have holiday homes elsewhere and a lot of these holiday homes will become forced sales.

    Lets face it, houses have been used by older generations as tax free shelter for their money with massive unearned and untaxed gains for the last two decades and used it to fund a much better lifestyle than they ever earned while working. They did not need the space when their families left home but they kept the house mainly for the tax benefit and MEWed a bit here and there but now they are going to come unstuck - just like most tax driven investment booms end.

  18. The thing that annoys me about both bailout I and bailout II is that it is the bank bondholders that are gaining out of this.

    Every time the Govt puts a slug of equity in or even just liquidity the value of the bank subordinated bond tranches goes up because the probability of default falls.

    In my view we shoudl have forced the subordinated tranches of debt on Uk banks to be coverted to equity by law. That way the banks would have been well capitalised by now and the Govt would have had to put no money in at all. The bond and equity holders would have shared the pain pari parsu according to the value of their holdings before the forced debt-equity conversion took place. Obviously equity holders woudl be diluted but taxpayers woudl not be on the hook for unlimited losses.

    It really is that simpe to solve. Why is no Govt not forcing debt-equity conversion in banks?

    Desperate times call for desperate measures but it des not mean we have to be stupid b y taking all the bank liabilities. Let the existing equity and bond holders take the pain and let them deal with managers who need their bonus slashed and sacking.

  19. Delta hedging works only works reasonably well in markets that are trading continuously (i.e without large price jumps up and down) and with sufficient liquidity (i.e allowing instantaneous buyng and selling in any volume that may be required).

    Neither of those conditions presently exist in financial markets. Imagine you were trying to delta hedge the RBS share price yesterday for instance. In practice, only futures and options broker/market makers can come close to being able to delta hedge efficiently.

    As with all theoretical constructs in financal market they work only in normal market conditions and then only in theory.

  20. This house must be in a very cheap area of the UK. Round where I live in Oxfordshire something like that would be three times the price?

    Anyway, if the house was fairly priced for rent at £900 last year then I would say a 5% increase is really not available in the market - rents are falling everywhere. I guess the clincher for you is whether there is something like it nearby that you could rent for £900. If so tell your LL about the alternative property and asking him/her to contnue matching that price. Otherwise think about moving if the additional cost of moving and the hassle is less than the rent increase the LL has asked for.

    If you have a good LL that is worth paying a slight premium for as well.


  21. Journalists finally asking hard questions. Dear Leader clearly not happy.

    Agreed. Just watching on Sky and the tone of the lobby journo questions is pretty hostile. Along the lines of how much is this going to cost and will you admit the first bail out did not work?

    Pretty pertinent and pretty fair in my view. Gordon looks uncomfrtable. This is not going well and I think the write up in the papers will be sceptical. I also think that public opinion will move against the Govt and banks now.

    This bailout should have been given direct to people in tax cuts or a refund of tax in their wage packet. It would have been fair to all and it would be direct assistance to people really struggling.

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