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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by Wad

  1. An excellent analysis

    I was in Ireland a few days ago in Kerry and absolutely concur with the conclusion that houses outside Dublin have to fall a lot further in price. Asking prices in estate agent windows just simply do not look cheap yet.

    I also spent an evening with an estate agent and he was very open about the situation. He said the true value of houses and the loans attached to them is not being reflected in Irish bank balance sheets. It was clear he thought prices had a lot further to fall but one of the problems he faces is getting banks to agree to sell their repossessed property portfolios. He said what assets are inside NAMA are far worse quality than being publicly acknowledged. The whole market is in suspended animation he said. He also said asking prices were far above the actual prices that were being achieved. I certainly saw row upon row of clearly empty newbuild houses with others still under construction. For sale signs everywhere.

    Interestingly, I read elsewhere that the Irish Govt is launchng an initiative to get the actual agreed sale rices of houses put in the public domain - not just asking prices. The problem is that no one trusts or believes what estate agents and other vested interests are saying about prices. The gap between asking price and actual selling price is so large that people are too frightened to bid for fear of overpaying. In the old days the asking prices represented someting close to the actual price paid. Not anymore.

    On the issue of the 30 - 40 year old generation. A taxi driver told me that 20 young people had last week left the village and gone to Australia. These are the people that should be buying houses as they put their foot on the first rung of the ladder. Thay are not buying. They are leaving the country. The 30 - 40 year olds have no one to sell to. There are massive public sector wage cuts coming as Ireland can barely issue any more Govt bonds as the only real buyer is the ECB.

    My conclusion was exactly as this article says, there is a lot further to go in Ireland before house prics touch bottom and the UK will follow in their footsteps.

  2. The biggest business in the UK is the housing market in the form of:

    1. Most bank lending

    2. BTL Empires

    3. Building Industry and EAs

    HPI and related assets were, according to the ONS, 40% of the net worth of UK Plc. HPI is our biggest industry by far dwarfing manufacturing which is third next to the service sector at number 2.

    I agree that Osborne is not in the same league as Brown who, on reflection, was singularly the most incompetent person to ever occupy Numbers 11 and 10.

    What worries me is the return to "debt is the only solution" to get this country out of the apparent, yet denied, slump.

    Yes I agree but you missed another major category and I thnk the real cause of a lack of leding to small business. Most 'small business loans' were in fact secured against the house value of the small business owner. The reality is that almost all small business lending was nothing of thr sort - it was just another form of property lending.

    Now house values look decidedly weak and falling again the banks are not willing to lend against the value of a house owned by a small business owner. Simple as that.

  3. Personally, I would suggest to the agent that you are looking for somewhere to settle down and mention you have a girlfriend.

    No lies but having rented houses for 25 years what you have to do is sell yourself to the landlord via the agent. Mention what kind of job you have, mention your degree if you have one, mention the stability of your employer,mention your quiet lifestyle.

    In effect, tick the boxes that a landlord is looking for. If you have to, get your girlfriend to come to viewings with you.

  4. Just watching CNBC.

    They are reporting that the value of sovereign debt in teh investment book has bene published as well in teh detailed figures. No haircut was applied but the data is now availabel in the public domain so analysts/investors wil be able to apply their own haircut to the investment book to add to the published figure on the trading book.

    It coudl take a while to run the numbers but by Monday everyone will have a better picture at least of sovereign debt exposure.

    Bet we still cannot figure out how big the losses on real estate are and how realsitic the reported losses on that are.

  5. Does anyone know if there has been any write down or haircuts applied to commerical and residential property in these stress tests or has all tose property loans been put down as 'investments' held to maturity?

    By my reconing, if the value of the investment book including any property loans were written down or even just marked to market many of these banks would have failed the test.

    Put it this way, if they had been able to pass the test by putting in the investment book and not just the trading book I feel sure they would have reported those results. Its clear that too many banks would have failed if the investment books had been included.

  6. If you are interested, there's a great podcast here:


    In a nutshell, the US has ~55m mortgages.

    8m of these are 90+ days in arrears.

    12m are in negative equity.

    And things ain't looking rosy on the jobs front either.

    That statistic is frightening and is the reason the entire US banking system is STILL bust despite the bailout.....yet so few commentators dare to say it.

  7. Wow! I have not posted on HPC for 10 months and the first post I click on is about the area my parents in law live in.

    Best streets are as follows.

    Forest Avenue, Granville Drive is OK. Northmberland Avenue and uptowards Benton is quite nice and puts you in the catchement for nice primary school called St Bartholomew's.

    Keep away for Palmersville area.

  8. LOL and hope you don't need a reference from the landlord.

    I do not understand your comment.

    Allowing a LL to have people round to view a property and offering to keep the place reasonably clean and tidy in return for 24 hours notice is a way of keeping good relations. It has worked for me over 25 years of renting. How long have you been a LL?

    Never had a bad reference in my life. Had to tell a few selling agents to back off though and my LLs have backed me up and got on the phone to tell the selling agents to sort themselves out.

  9. I have been in this situation.

    Yes the LL can sell the property. If the lease says you must allow viewing in the last month of the tenancy then do comply.

    However, I have found that selling agents take an utterly dismissive and arraogant attitude to tenants and have just turned up on my doorstep in the past with people wishing to view.

    Do not allow yourself to be walked on. You have a lot of rights. I always do the following.

    Contact the selling agents by email and say you will allow viewings Monday - Friday 9.00 - 17.00. Agents must give 24 hours notice by email. If they do that you will endeavour to keep the flat in a reasonable state of cleanliness and tidy.

    If they do not play ball and just turn up or try to get in at short notice or on weekend days - just refuse entry. The selling agent will prefer a cooperative tenant than one that is not.

    It is in breach of the tenancy for anyone to enter your house without your permission or at reasonable notice - it is your home.

    I have a female friend who is renting and in your position and her husband is away so the agent has tried to bully her into allowing viewings at short notice. Her husband had to have a word and tell them to back off in no uncertain terms..

  10. I still come on very day and read the news digest on the front page but post far less now than I used to because the crash is really starting to happen. It is working out the way we thougt and now wage deflation is here too. I have offered on houses at deep discounts but no one is biting yet.

    The arguement is won - now it is just a waiting game. There is not much left to say but still enjoy reading other people' anecdotal experiences. I am waiting to see when people on here really start buying huses at at what sort of discount.

    I spend a lot of tme on political blogs now as the Election is the next big area of interest to me.

  11. As I said last month, this is due to a change in the mix of houses on sale. Less flats at say £100k and more family homes at say £250k means the average price of what is on offer in aggregate therefore went up but within each category (e.g detached, semi, terraced, flats) prices probably still went down.

  12. The York Press has one of these property ramping stories per week without fail. All Newsquest Media Group sites appear to run similar stories for wherever their coverage are is, so much so it's fair to assume individual editors are told what they have to do.

    Let us not forget that local newspapers are in a really dire financial downturn on advertiskg revenue and much of that is due to much lower revenue form property advertising. BothEAs and local news pper owners have a vested interest in the property market picking up.

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