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House Price Crash Forum


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About DaveyDave

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  1. Hi All, Back in 2005 I was in the market for a property. I viewed a few - even found a few that I second-viewed, but they always sold before I could ever get my foot in the door. The market was mad. I decided to continue renting (and saving). So fast forward to 2012. Inflation is high and I don't like having large amounts of cash sitting in accounts with terrible interest offerings. So I make the decision to look at the market again. So what do I find?. I was thinking that my saving would put me in a good position. Well, here in the SE, it appears that prices are still roughly at 2007 prices, with possible exception of flats, but I'm not interested in those. Despite, increased inflation, rising unemployment and reduced credit availability, things are just as bad in the market as they were in 2005. Demand is high and activity is brisk. Last week, a local property came on the market at 10.00am Saturday morning, I had the EA call at 11.00. By 2.00pm the same day it was sold!. Of the two properties I have pursued recently, the EA refused me a 2nd viewing on the first after a rival offer had been made, saying that they could not wait the 2 days required for me to become available. I made a good 'cash', no-chain offer on a second property which I believe correctly valued the property but was immediately outbid. I guess there are people out there willing to pay above the market rate. So, 7 years pass and no change. I really don't understand where the money is coming from to buy these properties. I had always thought that it was credit availability that controlled house prices, but clearly this cannot be true. People still seem to be able to find the money. Whether they inherit it or just have the equity in their existing property I don't know. Either way, it's damn frustrating. Dave
  2. I'm sure Merv's got it all under control. He's constantly saying that by next year it'll be back to target. Maybe this time he'll be right. Trouble is, the damage will already be done and the price hikes will be permanently in the system.
  3. I've lost count how many years I've been on this site waiting for the 'crash'. Seems to me that there will be no significant nominal falls here in the SE. It looks to me there's no way the BoE will increase rates. Wasn't it just 18 months ago that economists were predicting increasing IRs by May this year?. LOL!. This all seems so fanciful now. With wage inflation low and CPI/RPI so high, I reckon prices will stay nominally static for the next 5-10 years whilst wage inflation catches up. Not much comfort for peeps who have saved prudently for so long.
  4. So why not just state the guide price at 200k then?. The fact is that such a property would be registered on rightmove at a price of 200K and not across the stated price range.
  5. Hi All, Why do estate agents advertise property with a guide price in range?, like say, 200-240k?. What are they trying to achieve by doing this?. Clearly unless there is some form of bidding war, nobody is going to offer a penny above the lower price so why bother?. As a potential buyer I find this quite annoying especially as the quoted ranges can sometimes equate to 10-15% of the price of the property which could strongly affect my view on whether it would be a property worth pursuing. I have a theory that the upper value is what the vendor wants and the lower one is what the estate agent thinks he/she can get for it. Dave
  6. The scheme just seems plain irresponsible to me. Basically what it is attempting to do is to encourage people who, by definition, cannot afford to buy and who have very little deposit, to buy new build properties that by their nature are likely to depreciate immediately when bought, in a market which is failing and is likely to continue to fall for some time and at a time when job security is at its minimum. What's more, these types of properties, ie 1/2 bedrooms, are likely to suffer the most during the down town. Surely, this is a guaranteed, dead cert ticket to negative equity. And this is being promoted by the government?. Am I missing something here or is this just irresponsible?. If this type of deal was being offered via a dodgy ad in the back of a newspaper, it would be investigated by some sort of organisation (or Watchdog) in the interest public safety.
  7. I wonder if it really matters whether the BoE rises IRs or not?. Seems to me that the practical implications felt by the public are only w. r. t. current mortgage rates which are largely independant of the BoE's rate. They've already priced it in to their fixed retes in any case. The only benefit is the message it sends.
  8. I think it has to have an effect. The amount of coverage is v large and this will scare people (it scares me), even though these plans are yet to be put into action. People are not confident about their future financial/job situation and are therefore not buying. I put myself firmly into this bracket. Therefore I think this enforces people's uncertainty about the future and so I don't believe much will move. Here in the SE I haven't seen much selling. Still plenty of stuff coming onto the market at silly prices though. Plenty of discounts evident through Property Bee.
  9. There is clearly no chance of this. If Merv can keep the rates at 0.5% for so long and in the face of over-target CPI, what could possibly happen which would require the rates to increased to 5% let alone any higher?. I just don't get it. I'll bet that rates will be at 0.5% for at least another 12 months with little prospect of any significant increase for at least a couple of years after that. Good try, but no cigar I'm afraid RB.
  10. Yes, I believe this is right. If your savings are destined for a house purchase, then it's not CPI or RPI that is relevant, it's HPI. What people want is for their money to buy more houses, not sausages/fuel/iPods. However, I can understand why people get a bit nervous about their savings when they read headlines like that. With a few quid in the bank, I'm tempted to buy now, especially as it's now a buyer's market. What a shame that Merv won't control inflation (despite the BoE's remit). Time and time again he's stated that this is only a temporary rise and that CPI will fall to its target shortly but it's just not happening. All the time, people's savings loosing value against certain commodities. However, it's not all Merv's fault. How can the banks justify such a huge gap between savings and loan rates I'll never know. Dave
  11. This is just plain misleding. 0.2% is 2.4% per year which is less than inflation. Therefore the BBC should be reporting that house values are falling in real terms. What's more all the forwarding looking indicators are negative. Can we complain.?
  12. And how does the BBC choose to convey this information?. House prices up 6.6% in past year !!! LOL
  13. What does it matter what CPI or RPI are?. The BoE is taking no notice in any case?.
  14. I experienced shocking rampant inflation today at work. Imagine my horror on discovering that the price of my humble maxpax coffee had rocketted by 25% to a VAT-busting 25 pence. This is surely a valid indicator of the state of the economy and must truely vindicate the inflation-prattling fraternity. At this point, I'd like to refer you to a graph showing this vital leading indicator's progress, but frankly I can't be bothered to draw one. However, don't despare - all you need to know is that it's bad........very bad......or as RB would say....VERY VERY BAD. House prices are going to fall. It's a well know economic truth that house prices rise and fall inversely-proportional to the maxpax index and that's fact: 100% guaranteed. Forget CPI, it's the maxpax index that really matters and this has jumped by 25% (fact), so watch out. Sit back and enjoy the ride........
  15. I've been watching the activity around Maidstone and it's very quiet at the moment. In fact I've bearly seen anything sell in the last couple of months. Obviously, I'd expect it to be quiet this time of year but even so. However, there are still loads of props with static prices (via property bee) that have been on the market for months, without the vendors dropping the prices 1p. I've also seen a couple of *still* unsold properties where the vendors have taken the opportuntiy to increase the price!! bouyed no doubt by the mini-boom we had here in the spring. It does make you wonder whether these people actually want to sell. I know that at least one of these props is empty.
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