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Gene Pool Lifeguard

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  1. I've lived in Chesterton and Histon and can highly recommend the latter. The Red Lion in Histon alone is worth about £5K on house prices I reckon. Fantastic atmosphere with Everards Tiger on tap. Also checkout Bishops for the ultimate antidote to DIY sheds, and support local business! Addendum: Avoid Milton. It smells. On a hot day it is way too close to the sewage works ...
  2. Aaargh, Yvette Cooper just said she wanted to defy gravity. "Prices can't come down, it would cause too much trouble." Much better to make things more affordable by giving people new opportunities to buy (how?) and by increasing supply. But even accepting her flawed logic of simplistic supply and demand - even if it did work - it would bring prices down! She has no logic. Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh! And she's in charge!!!!! I think this a great program - Andrew is subtly showing how slow worms are getting a better housing deal then people - and letting people make their own conclusions. Problem is, there's still a lack of easy answers ...
  3. BBC Business News section, link at the bottom: "Property calculator: How much money could you make or lose on your home? " You wouldn't have seen that link 3 months ago! Click on it, and all 6 titles in Housing news (panel on the right) are bearish. Also nice to see Andrew Verity and his producer getting some web coverage on last night's TV prog. Sentiment has turned at the BBC!
  4. Duplicate thread: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=59353
  5. Well done FP - Excellent work. You had a command of the figures which made you look much more considered and intelligent than Mr Mortgage, and very punchy summaries across several important arguments. Unfortunately I think that the concepts developed and discussed at length on this site are simply too complicated to get across in a few minutes to the majority of the public. When they've been fed of a diet of property hype for the past few years there's a lot of collective brainwashing, wishful thinking and sloppy analysis to counter. Fortunately there's the Truth About Property on tonight which does gently explore a load of wider issues - and hopefully leaves enough space for viewers to form their own opinions contrary to the hype. I still have some confidence in the public (and the BBC) as a result. I find it incredible that the media's major criticism of HPC.co.uk is that it's been around too long, and therefore must be wrong. But you made excellent use of the Somerset-Webb defence about dying to counter that - very succinct. Mr Mortgage (sorry, didn't catch his name - he was very anonymous) did undo himself at the end by saying confidence was the major driver, and giving worthlessly hopeful predictions of "between 0 and 5% growth" over an undefined period. Like asset prices ever flatline! I wouldn't trust him with my dinner money. Still, Declan pointed out his inconvenient truth: "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it." (Upton Sinclair, popularised by Al Gore). And his answer clearly ducked the major point that his whole industry is trying to increase everyone's debt, peddling the myth that rising house prices are a good thing.
  6. The most pleasing part about this article is that it's top of the most emailed/read table ... It takes a while for the tide to turn, but over a longer view sentiment really has turned around in the past few months. That will filter through into buying behaviour with increasing momentum. Patience JonJo, Rome was neither built nor burnt in a day.
  7. It's an interesting read, I was especially pleased to find some economic theory that actually explains bubbles, and why property bubbles are particularly likely (and dangerous). Rational frenzies - when otherwise sensible people get carried away ...
  8. I think the original post was a good one. It is useful to think through some models of how things could be, based on the information available. Too many people expect the future to be a linear continuation of the past - more of the same is just the easiest thing to explain but rarely what history teaches. You are creating an economic model in your prediction, you do well to state your assumptions, but the problem with any model is knowing what to simplify (ie assume). It's already been pointed out that the difference in saving by renting rather than mortgaging negates some of your "dead money" calculations. I also think it's naive to assume employment and wage inflation will remain stable at such high interest rates - these factors are all inter-related in many complex relationships. You have also not included stamp duty, assumed taxation will remain structured the same and neglected the effect of the BTL brigade. Economics is driven by sentiment, which is cyclical and full of turning points - whilst your assumptions make the model tractable they don't make it likely. To do this properly it would be interesting for people to post alternate predictions (models) and for people to comment on their likelihood (relative risk) - we could then run the numbers and predict the best average course of action with a bit of game theory. However, only a very average person should actually do the average action, because everyone is in a unique situation (local market, personal circumstances, priorities etc.) - so it really is an academic discussion. I believe house prices will fall, not because of a particular model, but because of observed behaviour - the psychology surrounding property at the moment is that of a bubble, the situation fundamentally does not make sense and is out of kilter with every available comparison (across countries or history). I will buy when houses are an asset but not an investment, and when it is a thing that I will own not a thing that ends up owning me.
  9. So you didn't go for the education then ? I went for kids, and a sense of liberation about not following the herd into buying overvalued tat - I include newbuild houses in that description.
  10. The comments added to this post are unanimously bearish, and are well argued and informed. (anyone here claim ownership ?) Evan has also speculated today about the effect of fixed rate mortgages expiring. There is definitely a mood swing in the BBC economics dept. It feels like it's just sitting on the fence, waiting for some unequivocal data - like nominal falls in land registry prices ...
  11. Evan Davies says that the interest rate cut was a mistake for the economy. http://www.bbc.co.uk/evandavis/ Business news on the BBC reads: - Mortgage approvals hit year low - Debt judgments hit 10-year high This has to be a signficant change in sentiment for the majority of the news reading public!
  12. Time for a robin hood moment, If you like www.propertysnake.co.uk (I do) then take a few seconds to click on the ads - especially the ones advertising new build property, or property loans ... That way the developers and estate agents pay for the click, and property snake will collect a few pence. Go on, show your appreciation. BTW I'm not assoicated with the site, as that would be naughty to encourage taking money off advertisers. Come to think of it, there's a very pretty banner add at the top of this page as I write, encouraging me to get a free guide to land banking! I thought that was deemed a con trick! Right, I'm going to cost them some advertising spend!
  13. Sorry, "static prices demonstrate a soft landing" doesn't retain much fluid either. Let me state the inverse: some areas may have remained static in price but that does not mean a soft landing is happening. The housing market is segmented: some regions increase whilst others fall (depends on very local factors: closure of factories, new housing estates, changes to transport links). Also some types of housing increase more than others (semi's vs flats for example). So it's possible to find local data which matches any story - as RB critics are quick to point out. One explanation for a static price in an area may actually be a combination of a local downturn (e.g. crime rise in a city, schools going down the pan, local unemployment) plus a national increase (demand is increased by people who are priced out from elsewhere but able to commute from the "cheaper" area). Net effect is that prices remain static, but if it weren't for the national bubble they would have fallen through the floor. Sadly it translates into more demand for a lower quality of life: our standards are the real casualty of the HPI madness. I'm not thinking of a specific example here, just demonstrating that the facts can be explained in different ways. We will also see static prices (at low volumes) at the top, just before HPI reverses, but apart from the turning points HPI has a strong positive feeback in either direction - it's either going up or down.
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