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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by VeryMeanReversion

  1. Thanks for reminding me I have staff appraisals to do next week. I'll add that to the competency matrix.
  2. A good way to sum up the housing market (and us loons). However, I'm old enough to remember a time when people didn't behave like that. They were generally debt-averse. The sirens of debt sang beautifully.
  3. The £10 note in my pocket says "I promise to pay the bearer on demand the sum of ten pounds". So there you go, it's not worthless. You can swap it for a new piece of paper, just like a supermarket bag-for-life where they keep giving you a new one when the old one wears out.
  4. Interesting bits on that website e.g. "BofE pension scheme has employer contributions well over 50% of salary: The Bank of England scheme required employer contributions of well over 50% of salary for the year ending February 2016. It also pays all the administration and PPF costs, on top of the employer contributions. Such costs would be ruinous for most private sector employers struggling to fix their defined benefit pension deficits."
  5. So 20-25 years for a deposit, then another 25-30 years to pay of the mortgage and student loans. Should be just about ready to saving for a pension in your 70's !! Looks to me that there aren't enough years in a life to pay for a life any more. Personally, I took 6 years to save up for a 25% deposit in 1997. Should be mortgage free in 2024. (rented and traded up in the middle).
  6. I'm one of those you are talking about that bought in 2010. However, I did emigrate to California in my twenties after I noticed all I could afford in the UK was a dump. I saved a lot whilst I was over there, enough to put down 25% on a lovely house back here in the mid-90's. (sold that one in 2003) Emigration was good for me as a single person in their 20's, much harder if you have a family with school-age kids. So I overpaid in 2010, fair enough. I still cant see a better option for my circumstances at the time. Seven more years and I'm mortgage free.
  7. Funny. I was thinking the same thing, his team have really polished him up. He comes across as genuine and likable, as opposed to May. Unfortunately, I have to remind myself that it's just another pile of empty promises and a Corbyn-led government would just accelerate us into debt-oblivion. As the proverbial scorpion killing the fox in the river, it's his in nature.
  8. I bought in 2010 from a desperate seller at ~25% below equivalent properties at the time. I think this was the best time to buy in the last 15 years. (See pic below) My target had been £200/sqft. The only way to do it turned out to buy something in bad condition, do it up then extend. It came with a derelict barn that can be converted into a new dwelling (or two) for the kids by playing the planning game. So I never saw this as "giving up", just going the long-way round to meet the target. Seven more years to clear the <2% mortgage.
  9. I've just bought platinum via an ETF to go in my SIPP (second purchase). Now up to ~5% of SIPP. (~65% equities, ~30% cash).
  10. That was interesting. I've been heading the same way myself. To me, fiat currency is just a load of empty promises about to hit a demographic brick wall. My gross income now gets allocated as: ~15% goes in taxes ~35% gets sacrificed to SIPP (mix of equities with overseas earnings, some pm's, rest is cash looking for opportunities) ~15% gets sacrificed for a nearly tax-free stock option plan ~10% in house repayments ~25% to live off (includes mortgage interest) So I'm managing to effectively save ~60%. I've been trying to convert as much of my £ into assets with low counterparty risk. I take the minimum income I need to pay the bills and have only enough £ savings for emergencies. I'm not convinced the deflationary collapse described by the OP will ever happen, I just expect us to go straight to inflation.
  11. Finally dropped to 0. The anger has gone and I just workaround the problem. Less than 7 years to go for me to clear the mortgage with cash left over to build another house in the garden for the kids if they want it. I know this is an "I'm alright Jack" point of view.
  12. A friend of mine was complaining that she will lose her tax credits now the youngest child turns 19. She is now nearly 60 and has been working as part-time cleaner to make the most of tax credits. She is about to lose £120/wk.~ £5k per year. My wife works half-time and that is her annual wage!
  13. Saw this post from an EA on pistonheads forum that you may all enjoy.... BTL down 95% What is the definition of a "crash"? I can easily see a 15-20% reduction coming our way.While there isn't one factor that screams crash at the moment, I think there is a melting pot of smaller factors that combined are causing real problems in the market. As some headline points from my office - these are guesstimates (pretty accurate) as I can't be bothered to run the reports right now...- 40% down in transactions (although we have increased market share)- 50% down in buyer registrations- 20% down in instructions- Must be 100%+ increase in the number price reductions- Sales agreed prices vs asking prices as wide as they have ever been and getting worse- Fall throughs up over 100%- Buy to let purchases down 95%- Lenders down valuing more often and tightening lendingI think the statistics take a little longer to be reported in the media, maybe 3-6 months. But as a real time snapshot on performance vs 2016 that is where we are. Speaking to all the other agents in town, off the record, they all say the market is f*cked. Every single one of them!
  14. Does no-one have any compassion for those involved??? ..... Those poor prison inmates will have to share with a landlord. Maybe we should send some twigs in a vase for his cell. Maybe the landlord simply didn't understand the difference between HMO and HMP. I blame Spyguys keyboard.
  15. My SIPP is now down £8K from peak but I'll only start to worry if WICAO says he has to go back to work Until then, I'll just yawn and collect the divis as long as it lasts.
  16. Bug report: 1: When sale price and sale data is known, it doesn't always fill in the change columns. 2: Estimates are really high, even higher than Zoopla. 3.Select columns - seems odd that the address is listed, blanked out then not selectable 4. If there are two sale dates, why give two estimates? 5. When going full-screen on the streetview picture, I get the wrong aspect ratio (thin picture in middle, large black above/below) Embedding the StreetView and the map works really well. Allow ordering by address rather than sale date?
  17. That is incompatible with human nature. I've met quite a few of them, strange creatures with an urge to compete, breed and occasionally kill each other.
  18. Yep, every penny over that gets SIPP'd for me. £50K is now a hard-income limit for anyone with 2+ kids that understands marginal rates. When the higher-rate income tax bands gets to 40% over £50K at the end of this parliament, it will be that little bit more obvious. To get back on topic....as far as I can see BTL'rs could claim rollover relief by investing in something else to avoid paying the CGT e.g. shares. They can then sell off gradually and stay under the CGT limit, use spouses CGT allowances or just move to another country with different tax arrangements before final disposal. My late-Uncle was a BTLr and chartered account and tried to argue this was HMRC back in the 2000's but the following cases suggests that approach has now been declared legal. http://www.rossmartin.co.uk/sme-tax-news/1091-letting-qualifies-as-business "In Elizabeth Moyne Ramsey v HMRC [2013] UKUT 266 TC the Upper Tier Tax Tribunal allowed the taxpayer's appeal and decided that residential property letting is a business for the purposes of roll over relief under s162 TCGA 1992 (incorporation relief). HMRC has long argued that there is no business in ordinary letting as it is an investment activity."
  19. Banks threaten government => Get what they want You threaten government => Terrorist. From this, I can simply conclude that banks are terrorists with better bargaining power
  20. I looked into this before stashing lots in my DC scheme and its not easy to find out. If you pension is held in cash, then only £85K per institution is backed by the government. Funds are supposedly protected. I spend a lot of time reading up on the nature of the protection but still came away confused (too many weasel words mean I don't think there really is much protection). My pension had been with Standard Life and Scottish life and I was getting more and more concerned that this sort of arrangement would not be paid out in future if an Equitable Life situation happened. I had one experience where their so-called sterling fund had been invested in Mortgage Backed Securities rather than £/bonds as they claimed and they applied a "Market Value Adjustment" to it. I managed to get this reversed but the lesson had been learned. The lessons were complexity and counterparty risk. So I moved it to a Hargreaves Lansdown, buying mostly individual equities and the odd bit of platinum. Basically, they just do the paperwork to hold things on my behalf. They have no debt and no liability to support their other customers at my expense. Its the only way I know to minimise the risk of confiscation or any more "market value adjustments" which funnily enough, never seem to go my way, I have a pension through work that just goes into a cash fund but that is just a feeder into my SIPP so I can keep the company contributions. There are no limits to partial transfers. DB funds go into the pension protection fund if they fail. On first look, you get 90% of the promised payout but the increases/benefits aren't as good. I've read reports that in some cases, its equivalent to only 50% protection. The money involved in pensions is so huge, the potential for skimmers, fraud and dilution of promises is enormous. By the time you realise you have been done, it's usually too late.
  21. I've got loads of Kingspan in my extensions and loft conversion, put it in myself. There isn't really much choice to be able to meet building regs U values in a reasonable thickness. I burned off a lot of building debris at the end of the project, the bits of Kingspan disintegrated quickly.
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