headmelter

No, but the shotgun in the cupboard might.

Probably right on this bit though. "We also expect continuing growth in the specialist mortgage market, as borrowers look to consolidate their unsecured debt by re-mortgaging their primary residence,"

Congratulations shedfish 1001 posts ............This one gets me my fiftieth......as you said any old drivel will do.

BBC property porn at its worst. UTV were at it last night.

You'll have a pretty good idea in 6 - 9 months time. I like the idea of using your government loan though.

Stagnation for 2007, graduated price reductions in 2008, carnage in 2009. But the tea leaves in my next cup might say something completley different.

I thought this was a very interesting post by 'Greenbear' on the property pin website and thought it was worth posting here. A lot of the headlines were taken from the wiki. I think it shows the possible length of time a crash may take to develop and how VI spin attempts to camouflage the true state of affairs. http://www.thepropertypin.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=504 (link for original post) Saturday 09 JAN 1988 - The Times - First time buyers hold key: House prices A fall in demand by first time buyers because they cannot afford the price of London property could lead to a slowing down in house price inflation towards the end of the year, the Halifax Building Society said yesterday. In London the number of firs... I'm quite positive that this already happening in London at the moment. FTB's are priced out. ------------------------------------------------- Tuesday 05 APR 1988 - The Times -House price rises slow in London Rising house prices in areas surrounding London appear to have helped to take the pressure off prices in the capital, which last year rose by 28.9 per cent. In the past three months the rise in Greater London was only 3.5 per cent, less than the nati... Also If I recall correctly, didn't London show the lowest HPI recently? ------------------------------------------------- Thursday 07 JUL 1988 - The Times - Rising house prices may send inflation through the roof If the weather or the prospect of in terminable delays at airports are not enough to depress you, you might like to try the balance of payments (in deepening deficit) or the rate of inflation (rising). I would choose inflation because it is more top... Inflation on the rise. Hmmmm...isn't this happening at the moment? ------------------------------------------------- Sunday 25 SEP 1988 - The Sunday Times - House prices slow rapidly Rising mortgage rates are bad news for the property market. Many sellers a re not going to get the prices they would have got for their homes a few months ago. "For sale" boards are reappearing in areas where they had almost become museum pieces.... Rising mortgage rates. This months news after the IR hike to 5.25% ------------------------------------------------- Sunday 06 NOV 1988 - The Sunday Times - House prices will languish until incomes catch up The house-price boom is over and that's official. Statistics published by the Halifax building society last week reveal that price rises throughout the southern half of England have come to a halt. Indeed, with an average zero increase during October... Stagnation anyone? ------------------------------------------------- Wednesday 22 MAR 1989 - The Times - Marking time;House prices in Britain House prices in Britain are likely to stagnate this year, the Halifax Building Society said yesterday. It expects high demand in the Midlands and North but a slowing down in the South. More stagnation anyone? ------------------------------------------------- Saturday 01 JUL 1989 - The Times - Owners drop house prices by 20% to encourage sales House prices are being cut by thousands of pounds to sell properties that have been on estate agents' books since last year. Vendors, still influenced by last summer's prices, are having to reduce asking prices by as much as 20per cent to sell, accor... Lots of property on the books not shifting. Cue rightmove.com and the recent report of property taking longer to shift. ------------------------------------------------- Sunday 15 OCT 1989 - The Sunday Times - House buyers to be scarce until prices reach bottom 'Of course the price is coming down," snapped the estate agent trying to sell a basement flat off Kensington High Street in London. "The owners are desperate to sell." But the customer, despite having seen the flat collapse from Pounds 170,000 t... Oh dear, sentiment is on the turn. ------------------------------------------------- Saturday 20 JAN 1990 - The Times - House prices in London drop by 10% House prices in London dropped by an average 10 per cent last year, bringing the average price down to Pounds 86,800, the lowest since the beginning of 1988, the London Research Centre reports in its quarterly bulletin. The largest annual fall was in... Weeeeeeeeee...... here we go! Seriously, I've always thought that London is the key or trigger for the market. When the HPC begins, it will start in London. ------------------------------------------------- Saturday 29 DEC 1990 - The Times - Two-point cut in bank rate 'could revive house prices' A cut in interest rates by 2 points in the next few months could signal a recovery in the housing market and an increase in house prices of 5 per cent by the end of 1991, the Halifax Building Society predicts today in its annual review of the housing... Too little too late. ------------------------------------------------- Saturday 05 JAN 1991 - The Times - Record fall in house prices House prices fell by a record 10.7 per cent last year, the Nationwide Anglia building society reported yesterday in its end-of-year survey. The figures showing the biggest recorded annual fall and, for the last three months of 1990, the biggest quart... Three years later, were finally seeing prices fall by significant amounts. ------------------------------------------------- Wednesday 13 MAR 1991 - The Times - House prices predicted to rise 66% over five years House prices in the UK are predicted to rise by an average of 66 per cent over the next five years as the housing market recovers from the slump through falling inflation and interest rates. The Housing Mortgage Corporation, in its latest house price... Oh dear, the ubiquitous VI spin. Not very different from the recent report of house prices doubling in 5 years, was it? ------------------------------------------------- Sunday 09 AUG 1992 - The Sunday Times - House-price market spirals downward towards crisis Far from showing even the first flickering signs of recovery, the housing market is plunging deeper into recession, with the situation, according to some experts, now rapidly moving towards crisis. Prices have already fallen longer and further in Lo... Weeeeeeeeee...... ------------------------------------------------- Wednesday 04 NOV 1992 - The Times - House prices drop 4% in two months House prices fell by 2.7 per cent last month, according to the Nationwide building society. Since the end of August they have dropped more than 4 per cent, figures show. The average house price has fallen more than Pounds 13,000 since autumn 1989 to... Weeeeeeeeee...... ------------------------------------------------- Thursday 16 DEC 1993 - The Times - House price boom predicted for 1994 House prices will rise by 19 per cent across the country next year, and by 25 per cent in the prime areas of London, according to the research department of Savills estate agent. Savills accurately predicted a fall of 8 per cent for prime central Lo... Lets see shall we. ------------------------------------------------- Friday 02 JUN 1995 - The Times - Major attacks `crazy house price spiral' Row over blame for feel-good failure. THE Prime Minister sparked an outcry yesterday when he blamed the "crazy, almost unstoppable" house price spiral of the 1980s for the absence of a "feel-good" factor now. Opposition MPs, charities and mortga... Ah. the blame game. This we still have to look forward to. My guess is that Crash Gordon will be the villain this time round. ------------------------------------------------- Wednesday 02 AUG 1995 - The Times - More gloom for housing as prices keep falling House prices fell again in July for the fifth consecutive month and are now 3.1 per cent lower than a year ago, according to the latest Halifax index published today. On the evidence to date, it appears unlikely that prices will recover at all this y... Seven years later and prices are still on the downturn. ------------------------------------------------- SUN 10 MAR 1996 - The Sunday Times - Blair's housing ideas rejected TONY BLAIR wrote out his prescription for a healthy housing market last week, calling on lenders to be more sympathetic to customers caught in the negative-equity trap, writes Nick Gardner. Blair wants banks and building societies to be more flexible,... Oh dear, New Labour to the rescue. Be Patient - A Hpc Doesnt Just Happen Over Night, History is repeating itself though http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=41276

They take effect from April as far as I'm aware. Typical cost per household in my area is approx £550-£650 pa.

I'm afraid I'm of the same opinion talksalot hence 2009 being the year I fortell the highest percentage drop in my attempts at being mystic meg. I just don't understand how the majority who have bought in the last year could be financially savvy as the figures don't add up. By the time they catch on that it's not a great investment it may well be too late.

I like your figures prophet profit. mine would be 2007 .... -2% 2008 .... -12% 2009 .... -15% 2010 .... -5% Although if I was abetting man I'd have a small wager on an outsider just in case, which would be as follows 2007 .... 4% 2008 ....-10% 2009 ....-20% 2010 .... -5%

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/hou...p;in_page_id=57 I thought this article was worth reading. 54% Increase in one year.......Despite the VI blurb that is some serious short term HPI. I'm no economist but this looks like a bubble to me.

This is the type of sound financial advice handed out regularly at the local kneebreakers drinking shabeen in West Belfast!

Thanks Frankk, I intend to keep an eye on Donegal and have been using Daft.ie. Do you think the volume of second or holiday homes has or will have an impact. ie when the correction starts to take hold owners of such properies may offload them in order to meet commitments elsewhere?

Frankk, Thanks that was an informative reply. Do you think the correction will be mostly concentrated in Dublin and the surrounding commuter belt areas or will it vibrate out to counties like Donegal, Kerry and Cork? I have been monitoring prices in Donegal over the last 2 years and they seem to have experienced marked increases in that period. These were fuelled last year by the change in planning laws which seemed to be exploited to the full by EA's cranking up the price of sites and in turn existing properties. Prices in Donegal are much more realistic than those in Dublin and I'm wondering is it likely they may reduce or experience the much touted 'soft landing'.

Frankk, When do you think the change in sentiment and market forces in the ROI will translate itself across to the asking price? Do you think the correction will be considerable?

I was in an EA office today just browsing and happened to mention the difference between rents and the cost of a mortgage for similar type properties. The response I got was surprising. " As the contracts are for six months the rents will HAVE to go up when they are due for renewal" I replied " Or the house prices will have to come down." response "There doesn't seem to be a slowdown at the minute." I followed up "Recent rate rises haven't taken effect yet, do you think they might have an effect later in the year as the market seems very overpriced at the minute?" This was followed by a pregnant pause then "Who knows?" She then went into the usual VI speel about housing being a good investment and usually always going up in price. She then suggested that it was a 'GOOD INVESTMENT' to purchase a property for BTL purposes as you could get £500-£550 a month rental return. I pointed to one of the cheapest properties on the display board and quipped "But a mortgage for a property like this one would cost between £700-£800 even on an IO basis" This was followed by an uncomfortable silence as she busied herself tidying her desk............... Alas I did not get a further response. I feared she might have imploded as she had a look on her face that said 'do not compute, no rehearsed speel for impending exchange.'

This area of East Belfast has genuinely improved in the last few years... but I wouldn't describe it as bohemian or bourgeois just yet!... see attached pic. Half decent schools might be a bit problematic then?

I have never invested in gold, but have a small amount of cash 5-6k which I would like to do something with at the current price gold seems expensive but also seems to have remained stable over the last few months. where do people see it going in the medium to long term? Any advice greatly appreciated.

'So the final point is: what’s it going to look like in 2012? To me, we’re still likely to see nominal house price increases per annum, but instead of the kind of double digit experience we saw in the 90s and first half of this decade, I think the likely scenario is that we’ll get quite modest, nominal increases much more in line with income.' Just out of curiosity, is he factoring in the other variables such as BTL, many of which are sitting empty, increased supply of housing stock and rising interest rates?

Well we know who wears the trousers here then.

Welcome to the party ro jaws, I also know of someone who was gazumped approx 6 months ago somewhere in the region of 25-30k, they also did not go for it. The property was put back on the market at the increased price and as far as I know was sold presumably at the asking price or above. The vendor in question was downsizing to a flat so it was well worth it for her. Mind you it didn't half piss my mate off as the proposal was put to him the day before contracts were due to be signed. He has just moved but not to the area he had originally wanted as he hadbeen priced out. He and his partner are now mortgaged to the max she is happy and he is very nervous.

Talksalot, As I'm sure you are aware the banks job is to generate business..... and profits. Hold your nerve, they will tell you anything to get you to sign on the dotted line, but be confident in the knowledge the bubble is nearly at full capacity and you will reap your just rewards.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/6265287.stm Article posted on the news blog page indicates a 4% increase for Dec. Oh the fools....the fools. A fool and his/her money are easy parted.

Prices here have really only overheated in the last two years. Places like Whitehead tend to attract a certain type of buyer ie. wealthy, retired cash buyers and the vendor is probably in no rush to sell. Conditions for a correction seem to be picking up pace. Prices should really flatten out this year and if interest rates keep rising, as it appears they will, factor in a few other variables like water charges and increases in rates, Q4 2007 should see the start of the price descent. I would suggest we are still at the point of euphoria in NI as we have never experienced a boom before but the correction will come as sure as night follows day.

I asked the EA for more detail on the Victoria Road property and he sent me this: Looks good to me, all it needs is a toilet seat!