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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Ash4781

  1. The bbc has the staff numbers quoted below. Though they look very high (incorrect?) considering only 59 stores. though maybe staff count is weighted towards cosmetics, and fragrance concessions? “House of Fraser has 59 stores in the UK and Ireland, more than 6,000 employees and 11,500 concession staff.”
  2. https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/27/landlords-to-fight-use-of-cvas-by-retailers-seeking-rent-cuts “Martin Greenslade, the chief financial officer of Land Securities, the UK’s largest commercial property owner, said CVAs should only be used an emergency option to prevent collapse.” “Where a business has genuine trading difficulties, a CVA can help provide the necessary breathing space to restructure and raise new funds to avoid administration,” he said. “In general, we are happy to support these agreements. Where the operating performance of a business is fine but its ownership structure has excessive debt or management simply wants to improve its operating profits by reducing rents, we do not believe that the CVA process is fair or appropriate. “For some smaller landlords, the financial impact of a CVA-imposed rent reduction can be very significant. The CVA should not become a management tool to improve profitability at their expense.” ... Dan Simms, the head of retail agency at real estate business Colliers, said landlords were often railroaded into agreeing rent cuts because, in many cases, CVAs are voted on not just by landlords but by other creditors who won’t share the pain of rent cuts. What’s the next biggest - HMRC. Would they want to share in the ‘pain’?
  3. It’s a bold strategy. Integrate the Argos business, and then even before that’s complete start off a proposal for another massive integration. On the face of it they’ll need great management. All the shoppers I know who used to shop at Sainsbury’s have switched!
  4. Where I am in the U.K. the price of unleaded has really surged. Reports are it could hit 140p a litre in the next few weeks. It’s going to get rough!
  5. Lol a total disaster! How to wreck a business. Though Homebase was already a train wreck before they took over! (Edit the train’s gone derailed and half way down a mountainside )
  6. I wonder if it is radical enough? Share price move looks pretty muted. I guess that’s where we are now - expectation of reduction in retail space. There was a brief poll of people on the street for a news article last night about M&S. chap said along the lines of the M&S website was a pain to navigate.
  7. https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2018/05/next-cva-clause-demands-parity-with-rent-cuts-given-to-ailing-peers/ “Next is looking at inserting a clause into its property leases to lower its rent in response to against a wave of cuts landlords are providing its high street peers. According to The Sunday Times, the new clause would allow the retail bellwhether to ask landlords to agree to rent reductions on stores where a neighbour receives a similar deal through a company voluntary arrangement (CVA).” Bang. The sound of dropping asset prices
  8. Where I am petrol prices are back to 128p a litre unleaded price squeezing people’s incomes again. quite a few restaurants mothballed and a large uptick in empty shops and notices on the doors. Aldi’s busy! Personally think this is the start. I don’t see how the commercial real estate companies most exposed don’t at some point taking heavy losses (CVA seems to be flavour of the day). For example Lakeside shopping centre has house of Fraser at one end and Debenhams at the other! Further as more blow up then there’s even less reason to visit these places - dead malls , dead high streets here we come ?
  9. There’s a nice visual representation of supermarket market share (Kantar) at the link below. I don’t remember Asda being cheap just dreadful quality (well the fruit/veg and the meat). Maybe it improved? https://www.kantarworldpanel.com/en/grocery-market-share/great-britain/snapshot/25.03.18/
  10. Asda and Sainsbury’s Plc merger talks. I expected Walmart to get out of Asda but not through Sainsbury’s.
  11. TSB chaos http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43904267 “TSB boss Paul Pester has told the BBC the bank is "on our knees" after six days of computer chaos, but pledged "we will get up and come back fighting". The bank has been forced to call in outside help to help fix the banking system breakdown. Mr Pester, said he would take direct control of the issue, and had drafted in experts from IBM, who would report "directly" to him.”
  12. “It added that it had taken the decision to pursue a company voluntary arrangement (CVA), an insolvency procedure that will enable it to agree a payment plan with creditors that include landlords and members of its pension schemes.” I wonder what their assets are if presumably they don’t own the care homes ? Intangible assets? Presumably it’s mostly a people / service company. Edit: presumably also the contracts with Local Authorities are a lot of their assets?
  13. Half year results out today. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/19/debenhams-profits-slump-52-beast-from-the-east-sales My reading is that their margin failed to hold up post Christmas so we’re heavily discounting so a hit on the margin. They do have significant headroom in their finance facility. Still seems like the strategy is a phased \managed removal of retail space with digital growth.
  14. The big shopping centre deal between Hammerson and Intu has collapsed. No surprise really there was a lot of shareholder opposition. Edit: it looks like they will be advising shareholders to vote against the deal. That will keep me laughing for a while.
  15. Last thing I heard anecdotally was that the London market was in total disarray and prices were falling rapidly. For me it’s a positive news story.
  16. Wow that is a lot of tickets to sell! Edit and the draw is in July 2018
  17. There’s no listed floor plan. It looks as though downstairs the hall and all internal walls have gone. Fair enough it is London and walls sit on valuable floor area. seen it done but means dining, kitchen, porch, living is all one space.
  18. Discount the property by the present value of the maintenance costs ?
  19. I was just looking at the diy option for rigid insulation for loft. However, the only option appears to be Kingspan after the thread date loads of celotex products have been suspended ? Wickes used to stock Celotex but presume this was the 5000 line which the whole line seems currently suspended and to top it off a lamda calculation ‘issue’ was identified covering the 4000, and I guess the 5000 line(before it got suspended). So some of the 4000 Range becomes the 3000 Range ? https://www.celotex.co.uk/celotex-statement-20th-november 4000 range and Crown-Bond and Crown Fix: all products manufactured in the XR4000 range, Crown-Bond and Crown-Fix ranges and GA4000 from 100mm and above will continue to be marketed as the 4000 range and Crown Range with a declared lambda of 0.022 W/mK. 2. New 3000 range: all other current products from our TB4000, GA4000, PL4000 and CW4000 ranges manufactured after 15 December 2017 will be marketed from January as Celotex 3000 with a declared lambda of 0.023 W/mK.
  20. Well for my provider the online interface and bills they use for transaction reporting are basic at best. Online there’s no export of data, pending transactions, poor merchant information , and a delay in transactions appearing ,etc. In no way is it setup for a consumer to easily manage high volume low value transactions. Have to reconcile based on receipts. Some details in the link re contactless.
  21. I was shocked to learn banks have been issuing contactless credit cards. If the bank sent me one of those type i’d Send it back ! Looking at recent numbers credit card debt is rising sharply. Suspect it’s those maintaining the illusion of wealth. Once credit conditions tighten the logical effect would be consumers tightening their belts. Though enough are doing that already !
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