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ezekiel

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Everything posted by ezekiel

  1. Isn't that simply going to be numbers on properties changing hands from Land Registry?
  2. I've been reading this thread the four or five years and have enjoyed getting lots of information and education (and a few laughs) from it. But it occurs to me, that a lot of this information should be presented in one, reasoned, complete and well argued place. So I propose the following. Someone writes a book. The need to be in the know, able to put forward a complete and thoroughly well-reasoned and referenced arguement. Most on this site (including me) don't fall into that category so lets be honest with ourselves and not bother. But one or two of you might well be up for it. The book needs to start back around the fifties or sixties and chart the progression of the economy, labour changes, migration etc - all the things that made people think that being an owner/occupier was "the thing". Then it should move onto the 70s, recesssion and then Mrs T and the changes to employment law, the Unions, the right to buy etc. From then on and up until now I think its reasonably obvious. I'd see it ending with the most recent developments in the US and worldwide markets, personal and national debt levels etc. What I'd hope to see is a coherent thesis that ives an overview of what has happened to change the landscape of the cost and perception of housing and how it has (or may have) affected personal debt, families, mployment, migration, societal attitudes etc. This should be, of course, thoroughly well referenced and illustrated Reasonably plain english with easy to understand metaphors would be a must. Price should be less then 20quid. I suggest a reasonably non-partisan title along the lines of "The UK Housing Boom - A History". On second thoughts that's dull but I've had too much to drink to think of anything better. Anyone up for this please feel free to have a go. I'd be grateful for a copy if you do. Cheers Chris PS- if you're one of the profs or journos linked on this site, you've probably got something drafted and in the offing once the market has gone tats oop. Its fair enough that you'll want to wait until the fat lady sings as it were, but if so please let me know so I can keep my Xmas book list open (for this year or next).
  3. I too moved to the country (ish) a few years ago and it was the right thing to do, particularly in light of the recent shootings, crime stories etc. Having said that, prices in my village are beyond laughable. The latest entry is this one: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-915...=1&tr_t=buy OK, its a nice three bed semi but £625k!! Its not too different to my first house in guldford which traded for £100k in more reasonable times. In my village, you're looking at 600k to 1m for anything these days. You can't tell me that we'll end up with anything like a balanced community or that my kids will have a chance of buying here. I fully expect anyone buying at these stupid prices to be well out of pocket in a few year's time.
  4. this should just illustrate to the bulls that something is going to change. its patently obvious that this isn't going to be possible with wages the way they are so that must mean...... house prices are going to change direction but that can't be right can it?
  5. Caught the beginning of this week's ramping. Apparently Newcastle is the countiy's "jewel of the north". I mean - its a good place too have a night but but "jewel" - c'mon! Also cue the tired cliches - "young professionals", "snap up" etc. What a load of loathsome cack.
  6. What about "the truth about property website" they've ruined my life for one
  7. I particularly like the scenes of beds (some of them iron - which wouldn't get damaged by temprorary flood water) which have been hoofed out onto the front lawn in time for the scubag journos and ministers to see. It is not as if the water reached the upstairs of these houses anyway - thieving filth.
  8. Sorry to sound harsh but you're problem is you. It was your decision to take the course that you selected. If you hadn't worked out what 3 year's study was going to be worth in the medium-long term then the lack of jobs you perceive now is your fault. I'd suggest you face up to the reality of your mistake and work out what the lessons to be learned are. Then decide what you want, make a plan of how you can achieve it, and then start work again. We all screw up, blame the country for its mistakes sure but don't confuse them with your own.
  9. You're not mad but you are taking a big risk. I think you'll be watching the market flatten out and then maybe (in a year or two) start to drop at 5-10% per year. You will then spend 2-4 years wondering when to call the bottom. I hope you're happy in rented during this time - I tried it and didn't enjoy worrying about the walls, carpet, deposit etc. If things go the other way though, and the market continues to grow (if only slowly) then you'll be making a loss maybe?
  10. Bang on! There are tonnes of things wrong here but you can fix most of them by finding the right place. Where we live is great. Good schools, good neighbours, people say hello when you walk to the shop. I run for 2 minutes and I'm in the fields. We have good pubs, nice restaurants ("bad food" - get real!). The wife, myself and the kids went out for a cracking meal after work - great service (polish girl), nice food - happy family. The biggest problem in this country who have got a family size pack of McCains on their shoulders.
  11. I have a good friend who works for a massive german engineering company - he is a PFI project manager for hospitals (typically three at a time). This company have many of these contracts and they are very lucrative. I can witness the very high salaries (+£80k), large bonuses (25%) and company cars (330 bmws) - on top of this expense the company posts profits in the billions (albiet PFI in the UK is ony one of many global profit streams). So they are doing very well out of it. My friend explained the PFI system last winter and I was shocked. They really do have our health system by the balls and no mistake. It is an open secret within this company that the deal is a stitch up that will go bad towards at the end of the 30 year contracts. But no one cares because by the time the late term problems are noticed, all those involved in setting the deals up will have been paid off and retired. One example of this is the equipment. The hospitals get all their IT, office and medical equipment new and it is replaced every 7 years (when it is worn out or defunct). But there are only four replacement cycles built into the contracts (year 7, 14, 21 and 30). So on the last cycle the equipment will have to be used for an additional two years with no chance of any new gear. This concept is played out across the hospital, so when it hits 29/30 years old, it will be a bit of a worn out rat hole - but nobody cares about this now because it will be someone elses problem. The system designs in ease of finance for the politician but problems for the future for the hospital workers, managers and patients. Lovely.
  12. none of this surprises me. It is sad that these people have lost out so badly but I don't have ay sympathy for them. As another poster said, you could do everything that Instant Access "provide" with the internet (or local paper) and hard negotiating with developers. I was shocked that the people in the seminar didn't see this. I sat there and learned a couple of things but the rest of it was purely down to understanding a local market and knowing how not to get ripped off. Inside Track have a rule about only buying in areas which are hot (increasing prices, near to universities/railways, subject to large external investment etc.). The flats in Basingstoke (for which there is an excellent thread elsewhere on this site) would not meet any of Inside Track's criteria but they've still recommended them to buyers. What complete **NTS!
  13. I went to one a year or so ago, it was great. I won a free set of videos which meant I didn't have to go to the seminar! I couldn't believe how people were pressured into signing up there and then - as if the deal wasn't going to be open the next week. They also said you had to pay or their training but you got the benefit of accessing their mortgage brokers- as if a mortgage broker would turn you down if you hadn't been on their seminar. All in all I thought it was a pyramid style event designed to lure suckers into parting with their cash to enable them to..... buy houses they could buy anyway. Gifted
  14. Only buy if you're not going to be hacked off when prices fall in 12-18 months time. The affordability seems OK, so its only down to how you feel about your deposit being eaten into. If you have no plans to use it for anything else but the house in the next 5 years, then go for it (you know you're going to because you're hooked on the house eh?).
  15. Has anyone got any decent (non-partisan) sources for international migration? For example, there are many other countries that are richer than the UK (GDP per capita is the best measure of a state's wealth rather than simply the size of its GDP). Pretty much all of the scandinavian countries (and Ireland I think?) have a much higher GDP/capita than the UK - how many people from central Europe are moving to these countries for temporary work?
  16. CrashOutandBurned has a good point about standards generally being lowered to the lowest common denominator - I've seen this in aspects of legislation at work (aviation safety) and it does happen. However, this is not to say that the higher standards were always necessary, effective or efficient. Broadly I'd rather we have a say when our standards get lowered though - I suppose nominally we have a veto on these things so maybe we should be asking our MEPs/MPs why we end up with some of the crap we get. No one has mentioned the reduced cost of trade (exporting goods to the EU is cheaper now that product legislation is harmonised for example). These are good things that the EU brings and I'd be sorry to lose them. However, if we went the Norway route then we would still get the benefits (by remaining a member of EFTA) without the costs, corruption etc. I think I'd be happy to drop out of the EU but I'd need to be persuaded that we would be strong enough (economically) to cope. Maybe there is another route? Finagle a way to drop our payments and try to increase the momey we get out of them i.e. pla it like the rest do.
  17. What about fractional lending? If you want to borrow £100 the bank only has to hold between £3-5, so where does the balance come from? Isn't the Libor market ultimately supported by the central banks (via lending to the govt. and through direct loans) who distribute the cash (created from nothing as suggested) at base rate. The spread of the massive majority of the loan to company X is the difference between the rate charged to Company X and that charged to the bank. Is there a non-biased website that explains all this - I feel I'm sinking a little
  18. Halifax -----------------------------------4% Nationwide ------------------------------3% DCLG (Formerly ODPM) ----------------5% Land Registry (Quarterly data) ------4% for the year Hometrack -------------------------------1.5% +++++++++++++++++++++++++ Land Registry (Monthly Index) ------- Financial Times -------------------------- don't know - never read this one Rightmove --------------------------------2.5% Home --------------------------------------3%
  19. This is a good thread with reasonable points being made on both sides. Does anyone have a link to y-o-y figures on murders and other crimes going back to the fifties?
  20. financially 06 was OK with a 10% increase - no bonus though. mostly the year was spent on raising the bairns and watching them do new things (go to school, first nativity etc.). For those who talk about the cost of having kids, I can tell you that the benefits of these times are priceless in comparison. Not convinced that 07 will stage the crash. Too many companies offering buy now pay later and other stupid credit deals - this is one sign to me that they - the banks - see enough suckers for at least another year ahead. There may be a small trickle of BTLs starting to sell by the end of the year but I think that the owners of these are too scared to take a loss in the short term and are hoping to ride out the tough times ahead. It remains to be seen how long they can take the pain for. The crash won't start for real until enough BTLers have to get out, combined with banks becoming reluctant to lend to the extremeties of the market (both top and bottom) and also combined with the new lending vehicles (shared ownership, rent/buys etc.) falling out of favour at the bottom end of the market. I think this will all take at least 9 months to start to come together and the city boys/banks know this.
  21. There have been loads of other threads discussing the rules on fractional lending have changed and will change again (10%-5%-2.5%) next year. This is reflected in banks' ever increasing excesses in lending packages. I don't see this changing soon (and when the banks stop offering the ludicrous loans we'll all know that the balloon has gone up). It seems to me that the trend has gone from +12(ish)% growth in 2005 to +9%(ish) growth in 2006, so the trend (supported by the continuing baying of the masses for shoeboxes to live in - and the answering 5000 year loan packages from the ghouls) is that we should expect to see at least +5% next year. This appears to be supported by the surveys (admittedly most of them VIs - but that doesn't mean they can't be right even if they are greedy). Hope I'm wrong but I think we won't see any drops in growth until 2008 (at least). The VIs are too clever, too high up (Gordon Brown et al), too rich and too influentional. And when the credit bubble bursts (as it surely will), their losses will be offset by the masses of property they'll be left holding when people default. - Bastards! its a win-win game for the lenders, all we can do is hope to make a living on the margins.
  22. How about option 4 - your parents inherited the place so why don't they pass it to (tax free as a gift if they live for 7 years) and you pay them a monthly sum. This avoids interest that you would have to pay to a mortgage lender and tax that they would have to pay on rental income. If they're worried about the technicalities of you paying them cash every month (personally I think there is no chance of IR getting wise to it so long as you keep it to yourself) then pay for their holiday (and whatever else) every year instead.
  23. my boss lives in a market town in hampshire (near winchester) and is convinced that now is the time to STR. He has a 3 bed semi and is intending to put it on the market in January (and expects to be out by the end of march!!! - I've told him this is expecting a little too much). One of my neighbours recently sold too and trade in our village/area has been reasonably active. Personally I think it will go on for a little longer before it turns. The key (IMO) is lending has to change for sentiment to move. The surveys seem to suggest that the public are expecting a change but until he banks stop putting the money out there as easily as they are then sentiment and behaviour is not going to change. Given that some media storeys are talking about a potential rate cuts down to 4.75% (sources from the sity and not VIs) then it could be another couple of years before the market turns.
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