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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by ezekiel

  1. Hello all I've had a shite day, but this is definitely a silver lining. "F*ck them!" is what I say. I didn't realise the w*nker who set this up was a pyramid selling con-man but I'm not surprised. I hope he ends up in the gutter. I better stop now - I feel a rant coming out of my fingertips. GGGGGGGGGRRRRRRRRRRRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGGGGGGHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  2. I bought my first place at the end of the last crash. I got a 96% mortgage and had to pay indemnity insurance. The point is, once we've gone through a crash/correction, the mortgage lenders will want to lend to people as they'll hav very low levels of transactions. Sure, they will be careful and will want to vet all borrowers much more carefully than they have been doing of late BUT they will lend. I think the criteria outlined by the OP are much too conservative. For example, post crash there will still be a market of lenders and some will specialise on those with bad debts, CCJs etc. This has always been the case and those lenders simply charge higher fees or rates to compensate for the risk. Personally I think the new trend is that there is a flight from all mortgage backed securities (even AAA rated). The whole thing will have a bad name for a few years and at that point lenders will be crying out for quality borrowers to build their books back up. I'd expect to get some reasonable deals in a few years time (not give-aways like recent times mind you). I agree with the OP's general point though, but I don't think the lending criteria will be that severe.
  3. I went to one of their seminars once - complete rubbish. It was a classic "pyramid-selling" type scam i.e. blindingly obvious that the people runing the course were the ones getting paid first, doing the least work and taking the lowest risk. I was stunned by how many idiots were taken in. Anyway, I was given a complete set of videos (rather poor quality) of one of their weekend courses. I'll keep it safe and then offer it to the first lawyer who tries to sue these scumbags.
  4. A nice trick with EAs is to get a friend (or friends) to offer multiple offers that are lower than yours. A relative did this for me and it helped focus the seller's mind enormously. I've also done it for a colleague. Its great when the EA tells you that they have other buyers that are interested and you know who they are and that their offers are lower than yours
  5. While IO mortgages have added to HPI, who's to say that they'll get withdrawn. It seems to me that they're one way for people with unaffordable mortgages to keep their house for a few years while trying to improve their situation. I don't think the banks will withdraw them so long as the mortgages are being paid (an IO mortgage is after all very lucrative for the bank who effectively becomes your landlord). I doubt that things will turn nasty for at least a year so IO will be around for a while. When things get hairy I expect IOs will remain for those with better credit records. The only thing that might change this forecast is the market crashing very badly and very quickly (30% in 12 months) which I don't think is likely. I this event then legislation might have to be put in just so the politicos can say they've done something.
  6. There'll be no change in my view. The MPC hardly ever drops two months in a row (last was in 2001). I'd be surprisd if there wasn't another 0.25% in April.
  7. I'm stunned. They've both got a modest income yet they've got stratospheric secured and unsecured debt. I love the way when they summarise their assets and liabilities they don't list the spanish mortgage and property - and when they do they put a massive valuation on it. What a load of cobblers. It annoys me that its idiots like this that have driven prices up (both here and abroad) when they didn't have the underlying income to afford it. I know its mean-spirited but I hope they have to suffer for a few years as a result of their speculation.
  8. Thanks for the intelligent input, no please go back to peeling fruit with your feet.
  9. Taper relief never applied to BTLers. Read the Inland Revenue guidance.
  10. I'd agree with the general spirit of the piece but it does seem predicated on the concept that everyone (particularly FTBs) have a "right" to own their own house. Within the market system the author describes, the best thing to do in the FTB situation is to say (quite rightly IMHO) "screw the banks" and don't get a mortgage. This is what people have been doing (FTBs have been leaving the market over the past 18 months or so) and this creates pressure on prices to come down. More balls and less moaning is needed. If I were a FTB I'd stay out of the market until prices were acceptable. If you buy in when prices are too high you're effectively voting for them to stay that way
  11. A colleague was asking me what i thought about potential recession the other day. This was off the back of the BBC's coverage of the Fed's cut. I think sentiment amongst the great unwashed is shifting - the mob will believe anything that they see written on the screen. Me, I read HPC so I know the truth
  12. I think its going to be this way across the economy as the slowdown/recession comes in. There's been a lot of talk about inflation but I think there are many deflationary pressures potentially out there too. Given that prices of so many things have been so high (property and services being obvious examples) then it seems to me there's plenty of fat to be trimmed on prices (in some areas - not all). An example of this so far has been the likes of Tesco's abosrbing some (not all) of the increased costs in foods as a result of greater demand and fuel hikes. The simple analogy to me is that a plumber should not be earning £70k+pa - there simply should not be that much value in the trade. A policeman's work represents a similar level of training (and more responsibility) but they command only £30kpa - something isn't right (economically) when the plumber can demand much higher fees. I'd expect a lot of people in various inflated trades and services to find their income being squeezed for the next 4-5 years. The hopes of many that wage inflation will ease their debt may not come to pass.
  13. Wow - ease back on the hate guys. The OP is in the minority of people who doen't mind overspending and then living with and paying off negative equity So, it seems to me if he's happy with doing this (for the second time) then we can all wish him well on his way down to DFS/LandofLeather/Comet/everyotherfu*cker where he'll load up on credit (for the second time). Me - I'm chillin' with the kids, TV and some Fitou on a saturday evening and can do without the vitriol. I'll take out a shed load of debt tomorrow'cos apparently its all OK. Eze
  14. completely off topic I know but I can't stand Ben Fogle. How come he's popped up on the front page of the Indie? And in Venezuala? I'm not sure where he comes from but he seems to be paid just to go to nice places and talk in front of a camera (sometimes with a dog). The guy is a fist-magnet.
  15. hmmm yeah, interesting. Really valid to people now. Good point, nice one. Yawn. Obviously the OP has done well for himself. Well done to him (genuinely) - he's thought about his future and made provision for it (sensible man). Can we talk about something that's relevant to things going on today and perhaps tomorrow?
  16. But everyone has told me that house prices don't fall, you can't seriously be saying that they were all wrong, all that time
  17. Get real - of course there is such a thing as BMV. If 100 muppets want to pay 98-102% of the asking price for a typical property and one person with his/her head screwed on tight wants to to pay 30% less then he or she is only going to pay below the value that has been is assigned by the rest of the market. So they'll be buying at a price which is below that of the rest of the market. I can appreciate that you may not like it, or may have issues with the morals of the situation - but the numbers seem a bit indisputable to me. On the upside - the important bit of the phrase is "market". Just because you buy at less than the market reckons today, doesn't mean that the market won't think that you've overpaid tomorrow - this seems to be the message that the SP poster is making.
  18. I sympathise. I've been reading this site since 2003 (lurked before joined) and have enjoyed it a great deal and have learnt a lot from it. I believe the marked topped out in the summer but it will take years to go down. Many here have pointed out that while HPI is instantly accepted by sellers, deflation is something that takes 8-10 months to be accepted (and therefore for prices to respond). So I expect that we'll be watching the barge gradually change course over the next 12 months and then head steadily downwards (or maybe faster than steadily) for a couple of years. To me, the discussion was always "are house prices artificially inflated?" and "when will the situation change and why?". It seems almost everyone (in the meedja etc.) now accepts they were infalted and what the courses were. I suspect the long drag down to the bottom will be boring or slightly unpleasant for most, awful for those most exposed and fantastic for those who are prepared to wait (and have the cash or credit) to buy when times are good. I hope that many on this site fall into the last category.
  19. No one has mentioned that they did gounrd heat pump through a single vertical stack rather than lots of horizontally laid pipe. This is the first time I've seen this done in the UK media although I know its very common in Sweden. A couple of years ago I enquired to find a company that would do this but couldn't find anyone in the UK who was interested (the ground heat source companies didn't have the drilling capability). Does anyone know if this has changed? I agree that they did put in a lot of unnecessary (and un-green) bling but their green claims were probably based on the use of the ground heat supply (which I believe is very rare in the UK on such a small plot) and the fact that an underground dwelling will be a) well insulated and will benefit from the earth's natural heat anyway. I'd guess that this would mean the house would pay back the energy costs of the excavation and concrete within 30 - 40 years (this is a guess based on a previous Grand Designs show which featured a VERY green design that was built into a hill).
  20. I think this is a common misconception. Taper relief NEVER applied to BTL properties held by individuals; it only applied to business assets and a handful of properties weren't regarded by the Revenue as such (this can be confirmed by looking at the guidance document on their website). I believe you had to be able to show that the BTL properties were part of a business rather than just a personal investment. If taper relief had applied to BTL, then you could have used it for the sale of any asset (e.g. equities, gold, fine wines, works of art etc.) that had gone up in value and this was patently not the case. There may have been cases where an individual investor (or his accountant) managed to persuade the Revenue that his BTL was a business investment, but I believe (from the Revenue's website) that this would have been the exception. However, lots of people (and the meedja) have failed to grasp this distinction so the comments about there being a mass sell-off in April may turn out to be true. Its also true to say that CGT will simply drop in April (if the grey haired tosspot sticks to his word) and so BTL investors may seek to get out ASAP in order to crystallise whatever value they have - I personally think this is a much likelier case.
  21. Hi I lived in guildford and watched property prices every week in the local rag between '98 & '03. I'd keep watching if I were you, prices are beyond stupid and will drop when things get going. On the up side, when the market turns +ve again, anything in gilly regains strongly. Its all down to taste of course but I wouldn't touch Guildford with a long stick now. Great place to eat, shop or play; horrendously expensive, noisy and busy to live in. Two to three times a year the rush hour traffic is so bad it takes an hour to get across town - who needs it? My prediction is that in 20 years time the place will be like Kingston is now - yikes!
  22. Don't buy now unless you can negotiate a horrendous discount (highly unlikely). Wait until after Christmas or later before making up your mind. Remember that the market takes seasons to change direction and its only just started to. There will be other houses that tick the boxes, you just need to be patient.
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