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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by ezekiel

  1. Oh and by the way (and I mean this in the nicest possible way) please can none of you carnivorous b***ards come round as I know you'll give me a rough ride
  2. I persuaded the wife that we needed to STR the other day. Had EAs round today who have given a reasonable valuation for the house. They all said it would have been 15% higher 8 months ago (this includes a current price that they tell me is market leading - I made it clear I didn't want to f*** about). They tell me to expect to be negotated down a further few % points. They also tell me 10-50% of deals get gazundered (I admitted I'd do the same if I was buying - not sure if that went down well) if they take much longer than 6-8 weeks to exchange. So anyway - that's the feedback, thought you'd be interested. Oh and by the way, I'm shi**ing my pants about having to rent, where to put the money, if I'm doing the wrong thing, what savings rates will do, what it will be like to rent for 2-3 years etc etc. it would almost be worth keeping the house because I'd be less nervous. Got to keep my eye on the prize. And maybe got some mogodon from the docs to keep me calm.
  3. Errr....why? I suppose since he has so much money he can recapitalise the banks. Hopeless fool.
  4. You wouldn't believe it. A good friend of mind works for a well known engineeriing company in the UK. His job is to run the accounts of 3 PFI hospitals. Joe Public is only is slowly coming round to the issues that the debt bubble has caused, when they realise (probably in 10+ years) about PFI they are not going to be happy. As the DailyMash say the whole financial system is predicated on the public being idiots.
  5. oh for gods sake - what a load of shi*t. Apparently its all down to too much lending, lax risk management and poor regulation. Well thankyou "Newsnight" for telling me the news - I'm so grateful for you pointing out the fu*king obvious that other people have been saying for the past 5 years. W*NKERS!!!! And that tosspot Hutton. Pray god I share a small space with him. Just once. 1 minute is all I need. He pops up everywhere like a piece of sh1t that you just can't flush. And their so called economist, who can now confidently chart the inflating of the bubble. its not just hindsight, the whole of the developed world has writtent the script for him over the past few months. We pay this lazy twit's salary with our taxed media corporation. GAH Jeeesus Effing CHRIST this is making my blood BOIL!!!!!!! Irwin Stelzer is the only one who knows what he's talking about. The other two coudn't find their **** with both hands. The tart in the middle works for the FT for FECKS SAKE. These a*seholes know no shame. And now she's talking about "levels of ignorance" - talk about the useless stupid salary sucking kettle calling the blindingly obvious pot black way after the fact.
  6. 'nuff respect. Its about time the people on this site are given some recognition.
  7. Good - hopefully the next time that annoying smug tw*t graces my TV it will be on one of those "Countdown of 50 most stupid TV trends" type shows.
  8. Last weekend we actually had what looked like a wedding invitation drop through the door. It was actually from Tarrant and Wossisname "inviting" us to get them to have them round to value our house! Cheeky, stupid, pretentious tosspots. I felt I should write back with an offer to value their business Anyway, I know what you mean about the local EAs. The ones in Farnham and Fleet all live in a dream world. I see some of them are now offering POA - I mean pleeeeassse, how stupid do they think people are. Scum wasters the lot of them. I hope they all end up on the sharp end of their own BS.
  9. He looked like a dog that's been beat too much not enough
  10. Is 2.5 times joint normal???? I thought that was reserved for chavs. I'm sure the wife and I got better than that about 8 years ago (before things went really nuts). Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I'm a chav - damn. OK then, 2.5 times joint does make a big difference, on either average salary.
  11. Sorry - I have a strict policy of not wasting my download budget on 5th tier NuLab cast-off wannabes like Carolyne Flint. She is a transparent career politician who is out only for herself. Mind you - I would, if only out of spite.
  12. Hi I was checking the numbers this morning (after talking to a colleague last night) and suddenly I'm not so sure of such a big drop in prices. I was working on prices dropping to 2004 levels at least but now I'm wondering if I've not missed anything. So, please check my working: Average salary (according to National Statistics) - £24k apx Three and a half times joint average incomes should be £168k Assuming a 10% deposit then an average house for an average couple should cost £168*10/9 = £186k. According to land registry the average house is £183k or something in that area. So that means house prices are just about right now. So that's can't be right. So starting again: 3 times joint = £144k +10% deposit = £160k So house prices need to drop by 12.5% to get to what Mr & Mrs Average can afford. I've assumed a classic conservative model here (three and a half times joint with a 10% deposit) as being the mean that we'll return to (sure there will be some overshoot but its roughly the long term average isn't it?). But....... I think houses have much further to go than this. So what have I missed? I realise you could use the median salary (which I think is about £18k), this gets you to a much larger margin (34% drop - now that's more like what I think will happen). Can anyone who really understand statistics comment on whether the median is the more valid number to use? Or shed any light on this way of looking at the numbers? I mean, we know that the lenders have been providing silly mortgage income multiples, but someone needing 6x income would need to be on the minimum wage and looking to buy a mansion wouldn't they (OK - I exaggerate a little)? Or maybe the Land Registry average price is not accurate - anyone know a reason why? Any nutters fellow posters who want to talk about govt. manipulation of statistics or other conspiracy theories then please don't, I've had a long day and would like to be able to repeat reasonable arguments to sensible people. Ta
  13. karl denninger on market ticker has a few things to say on the matter too.
  14. Its all b*llshi*. I can't believe that people fall for any of it. I remember Eddie George (about 2 years ago on R4's Today show) admtiting that they'd pushed IR down after 9/11 in order to stimulate the economy but knowing that this was at the expense of a property bubble. The Fecker almost admitted that they pressed on with it because the bubble would be someone else's problem!!! I remember almost crashing the car at the time and I expected it would be all over the news by lunchtime (e.g. "George admits that BoE inflation target is a a cover storey") but no one batted an eyelid. Unbelieveable! And now some useless tart I've never heard of (and I follow politics) tries to say they knew what was going on all them time but didn't want to meddle. GAH I don't know what's worse, the lies, the incompetence, the theft, the misrepresentation after the fact etc etc. They all make me want to throw up. On the bright side though. I guess the Americans will have to shoulder more of the bill then we will (if anyone has figures to show that this will not be the case - please don't post them until tomorrow so I can enjoy my evening - thanks).
  15. Does anyone know what he's talking about..? "``It looks pretty big,'' said Hughes, who has a ``sell'' rating on the stock. ``It's either very, very conservative and the company is getting as much bad news out as it can, or the market is significantly worse than we had imagined.'' Basically the commentator doesn't know if this news is being spun positively or negatively. We can only be sure that its being spun. This is like the CEO from Nationwide and his predicted 25% drop. Is this what he thinks is the best or worse case scenario or what he honestly believes is a likely middle? What's in their best interest, to sell a crash in the short term to post profits sooner or to hold back and hope to lure the punters back in later (could they even do this)?
  16. I thought the discussion about likely price falls when weighed against true affordability quite interesting. Clearly the lady knew her stuff but I didn't agree with her overall position (that inspite of all the debt the housing market isn't in truly bad shape). However, she gets paid for this stuff and does it full time - for me its a hobby.# Does anyone have any links to graphs that take into account the diffferent affordability factors that she mentioned (I think they were prices, interest rates, net incomes etc.)?
  17. Karl Denninger on market ticker has an interesting point to make. That around 10% of the securitised debt from both groups is held by China. He says (sites no evidence mind you) that this decision comes after pressure from china. Not sure if its true mind you. In either case, the wealthy (holders of the debt) are getting away with the risks that they took and the US taxpayer is paying the bill. Not good for the US at all.
  18. Hi I'm surprised that both prices and sentiment haven't been harsher here in the UK. In the US there appears to be an acceptance of a house price crash and a sub-prime problem (appears to be recognition of a "prime" mortgage problem too). But here in the UK, even though we have a higher level of household and national debt (per capita) no one yet seems to be looking at it in quite the same way. Sure everyone sees that prices are dropping but I'd expected mass panic by now (my prediction was for panic after the lack of a spring bounce). Here for example no one (in the meeja) has yet started to talk about the same lax lending rules leading to problems. Given that the papers are quoting a 12% drop in a year, I'd have thought that they'd be hyping it up a bit more. Do you think that its genuinely worse in the US (I appreciate they're a year ahead of us but they've also had some financial stimulus). I had always believed that things here would be worse (eventually), does anyone else still think this (is it just a matter of more time) or does anyone think that the fall here will bottom out (e.g. because of supply limitations, pent up demand etc.)? Cheers Eze
  19. Wow - chickens well and truly coming home to roost in that sector. I paticularly liked the hubris of the guy who was recruited and then subsequently made redundant. Its clear that most of them didn't have the foggiest of how their market worked. I took a walk through my local town yesterday (Fleet) and noticed a severe contraction in the EA windows - you can tell that some have got nothing on at all. Others are still marketing houses as "POA" - I guess they'll learn by the end of the year maybe.
  20. Hi I stood for local council this year (as an independent BTW) and lost. I was looking forward to making a pain out of myself in challenging expediture like this all the time but never mind. As an aside, at the annual budget meeting, one of the encumbents told me that he thought it was such as shame that house prices were so high. I told him not to sweat it because that would be changing and he told me (like it was written in Bible or something) that prices never go down - ever! "Thick old twit." I thought. Good job he's not in a position to challenge wasted expediture - d'Oh!
  21. Dear Delaney I don't mean this to be taken personally, really I don't. It seems to me you're saying that in reality you earn more money than you actually pay taxes on and that actually you're doing all right. No doubt you're within the rules and if you can get away with it then its certainly not for me to citicise. But conversely, don't whine when you find that you can't have your cake and it eat. That just makes you a pussy. Cheerio Eze
  22. Oh christ this thread goes on doesn't it? Middle class is defined by economists as 75%-150% of average income. I've thought about this defnition for a while now (we've discussed it down the pub on a friday) and I think it covers the situation well. It excludes those borrowing to maintain a lifestyle. It ignores education which is quite qubjective and it moves with the trends of the economy. it also gets past that "owners of the means of production" bit which I think is quite out of date (define "ownership" these days for example).
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