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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by ezekiel

  1. Hi Just checked Spline's website. http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/hou...rice_predictor/ His graph (#4) shows we've reach tipping point. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next few months.
  2. Hey So I mainly read Calculated Risk and Mish but also Market Ticker and a number of others (less frequently) but these are all US based. I like them because the bloggers do a great job of mining out new information and providing pretty good analysis on it. But in general the info is all about the US. Who do you recommend for a UK-based blogger who similarly mines out good economic info? I read Alice's blog (which is generally very good for providing information) but that's about it. There are lots of other great blogs (which I read) which provide information but with a massive personal agenda (Burning our Money for example is fantastic but sometimes I'd like something with more widely-based info and less rant). Suggestions for a UK-based Calculated Risk???? Or just suggestions? Cheers and have a nice evening. Eze
  3. this kind of engineering must be amazingly complex - delays are inevitable. It makes me lauch that the yanks scorned the A380 when it was delayed and now Boeing are chewing on the same delay duration.
  4. Surrey-Hants border. Nice village, quite posh, some cliquey-idiots but generally populated by reasonable human beings. But how can they think its worth that much????? gibber gibber
  5. There's this guy I know (not well - just someone in my village). He's put his house on the market with Savills - £950k, he bought it in summer '04 for £630k. I wish I knew which: [email protected] came up with the valuation - him or the EA; which kn0b thinks the last couple of year's price falls don't apply; which fecking idiot will view it at that price! GRRRRRAAAAARRRRRRGGHHHH!!!!!!!! Its sooooo obvious its not worth that much (4 bed detached - you can buy a 7 bed detached for £750k for christ's sake). Is it greed, stupidity, greed or greed, or maybe the agent and the seller are just greedy and stupid? Tossers. On a second point, I know someone who is selling up (for way over what its worth) and moving down to Cornwall - how nice. Oh, and they're moving down from London to some town which has been spoiled by all the other vacuous weekending wasters from London and they are gazumping to buy the place. Anyhoo, rant over. I wish them all the best of luck :angry:
  6. I too hate to pay for parking although in my local towns (Fleet and Farnham) there are still some free spaces which makes going into town much more civilised. Obviously the rise in local councils increasing parking fees has been caused directly by successive governments (particularly this current shower) decreasing the levels of funding they give; which causes the councils to have to tax in other ways.
  7. This is the key leading metric IMHO. I have no conclusion to this question. With the amount of money that has been pumped in (to banks and on the BoE interest rate) you would expect some increase. Also, its reasonable for prices to go up in Feb (from Jan) so maybe this is to be expected and next month it will be down again. Or maybe all the anecdotals of an increase in "SOLD" (SSTC) signs are true - I've read some threads with people dismissing this. Thoughts welcome
  8. With respect, my house was valued at £400-420k (between 3 EAs - all of whom said it was worth £450k six months before) and eventually sold at £355k after I reduced to £360k. Note that I had two other offers of £320k. I have a frank line of communication with my EA who confirms that properties that are being marked down are selling and those that aren't don't. The other houses that are selling in my village have also been similarly marked down. Those that stick with hopeful prices aren't selling (I'm talking over 9 months by the way).
  9. Hi I was reading the Market Oracle news blog this morning; the author was saying that house prices were near "nominal" bottom because the QE would cause inflation (he was then saying that house prices would stay static while inflation took hold for a number of few years and that this would cause the rest of the house price fall to be adjusted). While I can see that there is a risk of inflation (and the likes of Liam Halligan make a good case), in my personal experience (my work, the situations of friends etc.) I can't see how there will be any wage inflation. Simply put, while there may be price inflation of goods, I can't see how QE can put money into my wages. At work we've skipped bonuses (that were expected), skipped this year's annual pay review, taken pay cuts (10%) and dropped prices of our products. Friends are experiencing similar issues (pay cuts etc.) or are looking at the threat of redundancy or can't find work. I appreciate the govt can give money to the banks via QE but it will only end up in the public's pockets if they want (or able to qualify) to borrow it. I don't think there is much appetite for borrowing now so this is largely irrelevant (IMHO) and in any case it doesn't turn into wage inflation (which the Market Oracle author's case was depending on). So my question is - does anyone have a list of mechanisms whereby wage inflation will go up? Answers need to balance demand from work force with the employer's ability to pay more. Thanks Eze
  10. Ouch, that's a bit harsh (fair though). People on this site have had appalling spelling since year dot, don't pick on this poor fool for that. He's clearly got more important things to learn.
  11. The truth is, we don't know what the truth is. The OP's point has some truth in it though.
  12. I can tell you that my company is investing (or at least planning to - if we can raise the money and make sure the burn rate, costs etc. are manageable) so that we can come out of the recession stronger than we went in. I remember the last recession (early 90s - the first firm I worked for was heavily affected by the asian crisis) and that company did the same. I agree about short timing being a better option than laying off. However, the name of the game is cutting costs (to survive) and also about getting the best value out of the costs you have to bear (so only keep the most productive or necessary staff). So if you have to lay off then the faster you do it the sonner things will turn around. Mind you, this also means the sooner more people will suffer in the short term. But not all companies are the same. I guess that for many investing in new tools, technologies or products isn't the right thing and they just want to batten down and ride it out.
  13. Hi Peak was july 07, last peak took 6.5 years to wash out so that would make it jan 2014. I think it will go a little quicker though so I'm saying jan 2013. God that sounds like a long time thought doesn't it?
  14. You'd think, but.... on 5 live today they were talking about public sector jobs being recession proof. I think they're fools to have such conciet. Ultimately they get paid out of tax revenues, which will plummet. Government (like all other business) will feel their income diminishing and will react accordingly i.e. try to keep the customers (voters) happy at the front of the shop (services) and cut like crazy at the back. If this means freezing wages or enforcing wage cuts then they'll do it (not the encumbent eunuchs mind you). Bring in the IMF.
  15. boo hoo. We should pay less tax, fund smaller governments (including local), have less pointless non-productive people working in non-jobs, have significantly less social security, lower average wages and hence wider employment through proper industry (i.e. making stuff people want to buy). I feel sorry about their personal circumstances (I would do for almost anyone) but won't shed a tear about pubic sector workers losing their jobs.
  16. I never thought that shop should be in business. I couldn't see what they sold that you couldn't buy somewhere else for less.
  17. I am trying to STR but I've got a reasonable amount of equity to protect (or rather hopefully I have - if I get anything like the price I'm putting it on at). You don't so I'd think twice. If you can afford to pay the mortgage and you have a secure job or good prospects then I'd probably stick as you are because the cost of selling and buying again will be disproportionatly expensive. If you think paying the mortgage is hard then get shot now. The other comment is fair (that no one knows what will happen). However its clear its going to be bad. Best of luck with whatever you do.
  18. ......The only good thing to come from this would be to see his downfall,his vile political carcass strewn out before everyone .Cast to the wind and the annals of history as a traitor to the people of these islands. Rant over. I work for an engineering company who lead a (small) market globally with 99% of our product being exported. I agree with every single word you've written. 100%. Brown has been a disaster. Whatever you do, don't read the post "Dragged Under By The Brown Miracle" at http://burningourmoney.blogspot.com/ It will wind you up even more.
  19. I characterise him as a c_unt C'mon don't hold back - just say what you really think.
  20. I'm sure people who know me think I'm a scumbag already - they're probably right. Seriously, my concern isn't what other people think (stopped worrying about that when I left school). Most worried about getting a house that's decent quality for the kids to live in (in our area so no schooling issues) and not having a landlord who plays silly bu**ers. The concern is that when I need a place in my location there won't be anything I can afford - yikes!
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