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Selling up

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Everything posted by Selling up

  1. There's a name for people like that: STRs (And proud of it)
  2. Very wise. On a separate note, and sticking with more familiar class distinctions: I think that success in "playing the system" may be a class attribute. Note that this phrase is most commonly applied to the unemployed "underclass" and their benefit entitlement. But I think any investigation would show that the biggest players of the system are the middle classes... just think of school catchment areas etc.
  3. Not a simple question. There is a lengthy answer at: House Price Indices pdf from Bank of International Settlements You'll probably want to make a cup of coffee before diving in...
  4. Exactly. What Boulger said is I'm sure quite true... except that he never applied the same logic when the adjustment went in his favour.
  5. Add to my comment above: OK, I'm reading this in bits and pieces at work, wasn't quite getting the full story... There is an aspect if this IMO which was not done right, and that's spending £6m before doing the research. I had thought that this was a smaller pilot study, but it seems that excessive money and time was committed before doing the research. The programme should have been smaller while its effectiveness was assessed. I was premature in praising it before.
  6. I can't see this study as being an example of incompetence as some are suggesting. Those in charge of the study did everything right: Defined their hypothesis: Will free condoms and extra sex education for high-risk girls reduce the number of pregnancies? Launched a well designed study to test their hypothesis. Did it as a small "pilot scheme"-size study rather than (as politicians like to do) rolling an untested programme out nationwide. On finding the results, published them in a widely read journal instead of sweeping them under the carpet. So their conclusion was that their approach didn't work. Fine. That is useful information, now readily available in the public domain. Future policymaking can use the results of this study. Seems to me that this is an example of exactly how social research should be done, not an example of incompetence or stupidity.
  7. I'm not sure anyone will... that all seemed good sense.
  8. It is always important to notice "false zeros", so this post is welcome. But it is not a sneaky underhand trick. It is standard practice amongst statisticians to cut off the lower half of the graph if, as Tom Peters points out, it contains no data points. The reader should always check the axis of every graph to see if it is drawn to zero or not. Unfortunately I think this point is rarely made in school maths lessons... at my school, I seem to remember being told that all graphs should be drawn to zero. However that is not considered necessary in financial / statistical circles.
  9. I would think you probably can't. Best you can do is sit tight and hope that events shift the game in your favour (he may need to sell at some point, he may not).
  10. Okay, yes, I think that sounds convincing ... except that I know nothing about options pricing / Black Scholles... So the odd title means something more like "Biggest VIX drop [indicator of recent low volatility] hides bets S&P 500 will fall [expectation of higher future volatility]"? Edit: still not sure I get it. How would you summarise the point of the article in one sentence?
  11. The article is talking only about the US stock market. This has some relation to the UK housing market through many complex mechanisms too tedious to explain in detail. Essentially I think it is likely that falling US stock prices is likely to have a bearish impact on UK property. However it is far from certain that this must be the case.
  12. It's a confusing article because it refers to two different indicators giving contradictory predictions. As I see it it means: Put options (a bet that the S&P index will fall) have increased in price due to their popularity - as many people now are buying them as were doing so just before Lehmans failure. This is a sign that lots of people are expecting falls in the S&P and is bearish. At the same time, the VIX measure of volatility in share prices (average magnitude of daily movement up or down) has reduced. Volatility is usually considered to be higher during bear markets than bull markets, but I have no idea how true this is. Therefore most people will consider lower volatility to be a bullish sign. Hence the odd title of the Bloomberg piece: "Biggest VIX drop [bullish indicator] hides bets S&P 500 will fall [bearish indicator]"
  13. Very interesting. Yes he is including interest payments... but contrary to your suggestion, it seems to me he is logically right to do so. I will think about it some more.
  14. Exactly. I don't see any great difference between cutting the income of 20% of the workforce by 100% and cutting the income of 100% of the workforce by 20%. The same drop in aggregegate wages means the same reduction of spending power, and instead of, say, 20 people from a given office 100% likely to default on their mortgage, you now have 100 people 20% likely to default... approximately!
  15. The figures Rowbotham gives in his 1998 book "The Grip of Death" are that in 1996 the money stock measured by cash + credit balances was 680 billion while outstanding debt to banks was 780 billion. He says that these figures come from the BoE, but I was unable to find a reference. I accept that this is a weakness - and I do not have time now to reserarch the question -but I highly recommend the book in spite of this. Do you have any source for your assertion?
  16. Actually you're wrong BROF. The OPs link shows that repo rate is +0.25%, the deposit rate -0.25%, and is backed up by a further link to the what appears to be the Swedish central bank website confirming this. Now I don't know what a repo rate nor a deposit rate is. However the OP's claim that the deposit rate is -0.25% is correct.
  17. I didn't like having to choose between inflationista and deflationista as I believe we will see several years deflation then inflation.
  18. I never came out publically as a 90%-er. I have always estimated 50-60% when asked to vote in polls. However before the crash started I did privately daydream about buying a house at 10% of peak price. I didn't think it was likely but I thought it possible. I don't have such daydreams any more. Not because I now think it impossible - I still think it is possible. But I realise after 2.5 years of renting that I will probably not have the patience to keep waiting until that day. I'm getting bored.
  19. I wasn't impressed by the article. The author did not suggest any fundamental reform to our monetary system, or analyse the logic of a world where more money is owed to banks than the sum of positive credit balances in existence. Instead he thinks that some undefined "morality" is the lacking ingredient to resolve the problems we face. But how can "morality" change the fact that our monetary system is a ponzi scheme relying on loans being taken out to pay the interest on past loans? The problem is mathematical and logical, not moral. So must the solution be.
  20. Absolutely. In a complex society like ours, a huge number of jobs are "key" in that crisis would soon ensue if the workers suddenly disappeared. The government list is strangely arbitrary and seems entirely political. I'll see your binmen and raise you lorry drivers and dock workers.
  21. Thank you all for the insights. One thing is clear reading the replies: It doesn't follow from the statement "Oldham has a council house waiting list of 12,000" that Oldham requires 12,000 extra council houses.
  22. I thought that was such an interesting question that it deserves a thread of its own - so I made one.
  23. This was a question posed by Sadman in the middle of another thread, but I think it's interesting enough to start a thread. We often hear about "Council Housing Waiting Lists" being too high, but - like Sadman - I never stopped to think about what this means. I know that in my job as a GP I fairly often get asked to sign a form in support of someone moving to different council accomodation from that which they already live in. Where are the people on these lists living? Some options: On the street? In hostels? In b&Bs? On friends' sofas? With mum and dad? In private sector accomodation but hoping to move to council housing? In council housing already but dissatisfied with it and would like to be in different council housing? I suspect the list comprises all these groups. And without knowing what the proportions are, it's hard to know what to make of the list size. If, for instance, in Oldham, there is a list of 10,000 people, that could mean 10,000 people living on the streets need accomodation - clearly something must be done Or it could mean 10,000 council tenants are dissatisfied with their property - far from clear that something must be done. Does anyone actually know how these lists are populated?
  24. There's a link to the ONS higher in this thread claiming to show that 20% of earners earn 36k or more. I haven't checked out the data myself but I have no reason to doubt it.
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