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Selling up

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Posts posted by Selling up

  1. No one person knows the truth. The Saudi government probably have some sort of estimate of the remaining lifespan of their fields. The chief exec of BP has an estimate of his fields....

    For obvious reasons these results are not in the public domain, and guarded with immense secrecy.

    Oil reserves are most certainly not open to independent verification and there are economic incentives for overreporting the amount of oil in your fields.

    I should add that I firmly believe that peak oil is going to hit within 20 years, and it scares me.

  2. "A few months ago, some of the most senior bankers lined up to take potshots at consumers for their increasingly “cavalier” attitude to paying off debts."

    Don't know why but I can still be nauseated by the cynicism with which government and banks rush to abolish all restraints on irresponsible lending. Then who's to blame when repayments are missed? Oh yes, the poor suckers who took bank advice and took out loans.

  3. I think anyone who believes an economic slowdown is over the horizon should be making the most of the current economy and scraping as much cream off the top as they can. It might feel like pass the parcel or even russian roulette, you just have to be sure you're the one nearest the door, and in this case it's as easy as staying better informed than anyone else at the party. But it's not approach that suits everyone.

    Problem is, selling a house in a panic isn't like selling your shares. You can't just ring your broker today and have it all done by tomorrow.

  4. LOL! :D:D:D It's all the 'availabilty of credit' thats at fault....

    Lets get this right.

    Interest rates are set according to the inflation level.

    The IR's set the availibility of credit (which is so at fault...)

    Brainclamp goes on to point out that immigration is likely to be keeping wage inflation down, thus contributing to HPI.

    Fine as far as it goes, but also remember that IR's are set according to near-fictional indicators of inflation, excluding anything such as house prices that might actually have been becoming more expensive. So the link between inflation and IRs is not robust. My understanding is that governments can still lead the BoE to set IRs at whatever level the government likes, simply by directing which indicator they would like the BoE to use.

    So the government can effectively control IRs, regardless of inflation.

    Am I wrong?

  5. Well, I've lurked for ages. But now seems a good time to join the forum: For various reasons I'm moving to Blackburn, Lancashire, where I used to live, and I'm selling my 50%-mortgaged terrace in Bristol. The question arises of what to do next, buy or rent... Being a great property Bear, I'm agonising over the choice: I think sharp price reductions are around the corner, but it's still possible to find houses in Lancashire that aren't priced at comical levels. In fact my capital probably buys an identical property in Blackburn outright!

    Anyway, I will be watching these pages even more than usual in coming weeks, as exchange date for my sale looms.

    BTW, in Bristol it only took a few weeks for an offer to arrive 5 percent below my (laughably high IMO) asking price, which I accepted! So there are still certainly plenty of "greater fools" out there!

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