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Selling up

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Everything posted by Selling up

  1. No one person knows the truth. The Saudi government probably have some sort of estimate of the remaining lifespan of their fields. The chief exec of BP has an estimate of his fields.... For obvious reasons these results are not in the public domain, and guarded with immense secrecy. Oil reserves are most certainly not open to independent verification and there are economic incentives for overreporting the amount of oil in your fields. I should add that I firmly believe that peak oil is going to hit within 20 years, and it scares me.
  2. My theory is that the lending came first, the house price inflation followed. House prices are high BECAUSE banks want us indebted, not vice versa. But I haven't done enough historical research to demonstrate it yet...
  3. I was disturbed yesterday that one of my best friends has decided to BTL. We've never talked about property. I asked him "is this just an option or have you made your mind up." He said he'd made his mind up so I didn't think my views would be welcome. Feeling very anxious for him though.
  4. BTW, does anyone on this site admit on their profile to being a bull? I'm new here but I've not noticed any yet.
  5. Hyperinflation is being proposed above as a logical alternative to an HPC. But hyperinflation would decimate house prices in real terms. Of course it wouldn't do you any good if you had been holding cash waiting to buy property, but if you were in gold, for instance, your gold would buy more house!
  6. "A few months ago, some of the most senior bankers lined up to take potshots at consumers for their increasingly “cavalier” attitude to paying off debts." Don't know why but I can still be nauseated by the cynicism with which government and banks rush to abolish all restraints on irresponsible lending. Then who's to blame when repayments are missed? Oh yes, the poor suckers who took bank advice and took out loans.
  7. Well I applaud Housestag. If all FTBs were as prudent as he is we wouldn't be in this mess!
  8. But if the law could be changed... hey, kids, anyone else just seen a solution to the "housing shortage"?
  9. Seems to me there's damn little evidence of any lessons having been learnt so far...
  10. Abbey launches new indefinite term IO 100% mortgage. The mortgage will be called "renting"
  11. I seem to remember that if you're at the top of a ladder, the ladder only leads down. But somehow I doubt that's what the VI's mean.
  12. Bring it on! But sadly I can't see it appealing to MPs, who aren't famed for the modesty of their dwellings. And many of whom benefit from the second home DISCOUNT on council tax. How is the second home discount conceivably justifiable?
  13. Actually, surely it IS a zero sum game: The identical asset changing hands for more or less money? I think that's close to the definition of a zero sum game!
  14. Problem is, selling a house in a panic isn't like selling your shares. You can't just ring your broker today and have it all done by tomorrow.
  15. Brainclamp goes on to point out that immigration is likely to be keeping wage inflation down, thus contributing to HPI. Fine as far as it goes, but also remember that IR's are set according to near-fictional indicators of inflation, excluding anything such as house prices that might actually have been becoming more expensive. So the link between inflation and IRs is not robust. My understanding is that governments can still lead the BoE to set IRs at whatever level the government likes, simply by directing which indicator they would like the BoE to use. So the government can effectively control IRs, regardless of inflation. Am I wrong?
  16. Fencedancer - I love the story, problem is this thread is so interesting I think by the time we've got to the bottom to post a reply, our brains are full of economics, not literary criticism!! Don't know how it should turn out, though. Do you have a plan?
  17. I'm reading Dickens at the moment. "Debtors' prisons".... interesting idea?
  18. Well, I've lurked for ages. But now seems a good time to join the forum: For various reasons I'm moving to Blackburn, Lancashire, where I used to live, and I'm selling my 50%-mortgaged terrace in Bristol. The question arises of what to do next, buy or rent... Being a great property Bear, I'm agonising over the choice: I think sharp price reductions are around the corner, but it's still possible to find houses in Lancashire that aren't priced at comical levels. In fact my capital probably buys an identical property in Blackburn outright! Anyway, I will be watching these pages even more than usual in coming weeks, as exchange date for my sale looms. BTW, in Bristol it only took a few weeks for an offer to arrive 5 percent below my (laughably high IMO) asking price, which I accepted! So there are still certainly plenty of "greater fools" out there!
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