IMupNorth

I don't think it does appear to be such bad value - its all relative, and if it was so bad, then millions wouldn't be trying to flock here. Some older middle class white folks appear to be off to their ghettos in Spain, but I think thats more to do living the dream in the sunshine than anything else. Housing stock as a whole seems much better than 30 years ago. Overcrowding - completely agree, immigration should be stopped NOW. Crap weather - it is warming up though, global warming and all that ! Crap food - blame Macdonalds and all those horrible kebab shops, curry houses etc - these things have not enriched our culture in my opinion.

In a nutshell, because the vast majority can afford it. Life is a war of attrition, its never easy - it never was and it never will be. The system works by the have's taking as much off the have nots as is possible, they let the 'have nots' keep just enough to stop them from getting revolutionary. The game is to become a 'have' and not a 'have not' because once you've got 'nowt' its bloody hard to work your way back up from this position. If your unhappy about your lot, what are you doing about it ? You won't change the system, so either learn to be happy with your lot, or get a move on ! Tough but true. Life ain't fair.

Why ? - its the easiest job going at the moment - you just have to leave them where they are. The upwards forces and the downwards forces are in balance. The MPC have done a brilliant job, in maintaining stable and low IRs. The whole idea of the MPC is to keep inflation low and IRs stable so that business can plan sensibly for the future.

Well its the end of March / early April - average price is now £224,157 - so let's tell it like it is and thats a £8k drop or 3.7%. Hope that keeps your hopes up dear bears. In fact since the high point of £241k in November its now down 7.2%. The same week a year ago, the average price was £225,770. So down £1,600 or so - not much, but down nonetheless. Looking at it, though, its seems that all of this has been caused by a relatively few high value houses selling, which knocks the market down disproportionately. I cannot detect any noticeable fall in like for like values. Good news for the bears is that number of properties now stands at 353, up again, but to be expected at this time of year. Anyway, thats enough of the numbers for now, I'll be back with an update after the spring bounce probably in June sometime.

737, he hasn't answered you because he can't back up his statements as a rule. He has regularly attacked me for using measurements and arguments to prove that hosue prices are not dropping and if anything have continued to go up in the Yorkshire area over the last couple of ye

I guess you are too simple to follow a decent explanation, there is no hope for you old boy. I somehow think you'll be renting all your life based on your understanding of economics. Oh and to keep it simple ..... past performance is no guide to future performance. Don't bank on UK IRs following US IRs. BTW, you need to follow your own advice - watch and learn - have you learnt anything about why house prices aren't crashing. You just can't help some people.

There is no doubt that we are in a new paradigm compared to the 80's and 90's ........ but there again I'm sure there will be a even newer, new paradigm just around the corner. It might be different that in the past, but its almost certain the future will be different to today - this stuff ain't rocket science is it ! Personally, I belive in 'paradigm shifting' as the new black.

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticl...BRITAIN-GFK.xml Here you go, some bearish news for you !! It does mention something about reducing IRs though ........ unlikely though whilst house prices are rising, perhaps later in the year, but not yet. Would you raise IRs and make people even more pessimistic given this news ?

The real reason is that a growing proportion of ftb's have no practical skills and wouldn't have a clue. This is one more side effect of a growing army of people sat in front of computer screens. People are raised differently these days, because yes we do have more cash and people don't get the opportunity to learn practical skills + they are lazier these days and can't be arsed aswell. Doesn't apply to everyone, just an increasing number thats all.

Oh go on then, as you mentioned me by name ! I'm even going to try and find some common ground - yes you are right that if IRs go up too high, then a lot of people will get their fingers burnt. I have no problem with this, neither have any of the bulls from what I can see. The issue is around whether IRs are going to rise to the level that will cause the damage to get a HPC going and then keep it going for a period of a few years. I am happy to accept that a HPC would take several years to pan, I am also happy to accept that if you get a 10% reduction over a year, then this is a sign it is crashing. If it keeps going for a further year or two then we will have indeed had our price crash. But and this is the big but, IRs are not going to rise this year, and highly unlikely into next year as well. So if the status quo remains, then the current pricing levels are likely to remain. Stagnation, yes, slight rises, yes, slight falls possible, but no HPC crash on the horizon. So, why won't IRs rise or at least enough to cause a problem ? The economy is finely balanced, its output growth is running near to trend and CPI is bang on target - no reason to do anything then based on current performance. IRs are rising slowly around the world, but if we put ours up, then you start to slow the economy which we don't need. If the £ drifts down against other currencies, then this will tend to stimulate exports and make imports more expensive. So, our exporters do better and people import less. Balance of payments improve and £ tends to strengthen. Improved exports tends to rebalance the economy away from being consumption driven - which is a good thing. What kind of reduction in £ against a basket of currencies needs to happen in order to significantly increase inflation - my answer is quite considerable well over 10% reduction - i.e. £ needs to drop to below $1.60 and E1.3 simultaneously. It needs to happen quickly and be sustained. Now, in a world where there is still considerable deflation in prices going on due to cheap labour and improve technology and efficiency, then this will tend to reduce the impact of the £ dropping. So lets move onto oil, the price is remaining high (i thought it might drop a bit by now, but hey even I'm wrong), and it could well move higher. If it does, it feeds through to inflation eventually - I'm sure that without this CPI would be even lower than 2%. Oil is a global phenomenen that we cannot control and effects all countries in the world - but increasing IRs just acts as a double whammy and would bring on a recession, so you don't raise IRs to control oil prices. As it effects the world, your competitive position globally is not altered, you just have to ride this one out. I have no doubt that we are starting to see the effect of peak oil and the end of cheap energy globally, economies and individuals will have to change their budgets over the coming years to cope. And yes, before you jump in too quickly, I accept that this will tend to depress house prices in the long term. However, the effect is long term and is not going to impact house prices in the next few years to any noticeable effect. Should the economy weaken, as all you bears are convinced it will, then why would you increase IRs ? - well you just wouldn't would you. A weakening economy, is likely to have a reducing impact on inflation. So to summarise, whilst I accept that there forces at work which 'may' lead to reducing house prices, I do not believe that they are of sufficient magnitude to have a profound effect. Because the economy is finely balanced (which is how it should be) then a slight nudge on the IR tiller is all that is needed to control the economy. A slight nudge, is not a sufficient trigger to cause a HPC. For a HPC you need a big external, uncontrollable shock, and I don't see where this is coming from. Short term, prices will stay where they are - say for the next two years is the most I could forecast. Long term, i.e. 25 years out, I see a very slow, grinding down process in relative house prices compared to say energy costs and % of take home pay. + also the effects of demographics should not be ignored. So a HPC in the next few years - not a snowballs can in hell of one ! All in my personal opinion of course !

Absolutely spot on analysis - gets my vote for 'Post of The Day'

Whilst you are probably right about this, it does just demonstrate what bizarre lengths you bears will go to in order to prove your point. My bank doesn't give me gold to buy a house with and my bank doesn't accept gold dust back off me. You post is completely pointless in the real world. Perhaps if you have the good fortune to be be able to opt out of currencies and sit on your nugget thats fine. Most of us just have to use the paper stuff.

Good thread this, worth bumping back to the top. From my own research on mortgage approvals and the link to rising prices, then I think the time lag is can be quite short i.e. just a couple of months. Therefore, as soon as approval numbers drop, then very rapidly house price rises stop. Although the annual figures for HPI naturally take some time to be affected. My own thoughts are that at the moment, HPI won't rise as fast as 8% this year - more like 3% in line with wages growth. It will be interesting to see which way March pans out, I think this will give an indication for the rest of the year. March is normally a very strong month, spring bounce and all that. My only other thought is that March may be slower than normally, just purely as a result of the cold weather in March. However, its now warmed up and the suns out, so April may well be busier than normal to compensate. We may have to wait until May before we can see the true picture. The only thing that can be said with any certainty is that there is no price crash happening.

Simon, don't taunt the bears, they don't like it ............. ! We have been promised a meltdown in the £ as soon as the Yanks go to 4.75% IRs and above. Well lets just wait and see should we. Now, its happened, the currency dealers will be throwing their £s down the toilet won't they - this is what we have been promised by the likes of Realistbear And what is a meltdown may we ask - a 5% or 10% fall ? and over what time period. From what I've been reading on this forum, I am expecting 10% falls by the end of April at least. So go on bears define whats going to happen ?!

You need to overlay the availability of housing over this, to understand whether there has been a shortage of housing coninciding with the baby boomers volumes to then determine whether it is this that has caused a rise in house values. I suspect there is no housing shortage. The reason for higher house prices can be 90% laid at the door of lower IRs.

I can't wait to be shown the error of my ways ! - any predicted timescales to all this ? - just a stab at it will do ! By the way, are you happy for me to keep reminding you about this? More than happy for you to take the piss out of me when inflation is rampant and IRs are rising, as you are predicting.

o.k. cos I'm feeling bored this pm ! I don't see our economy as weak, by all accounts economic activity is picking up to be about on trend in terms of growth. Its had a 6-9 month breather, even during which it still grew. There is no need to raise IRs to curb a rampant economy, its where it needs to be. Inflation and wages increases are low, signs of a strong economy and no reason whatsoever to raise IRs. There are 600k of unfilled vacancies. Housing is not sucking money out of the economy (what school of economics did you go to). Housing is the mechanism by which money is being injected into the economy. Soory to empty my bladder onto your fire.

Please explain just why you think it is probable, when no one else does ? Just an outline of why it is 50%+ likely this will occur. What are the facts that no one else can see ?

R U saying that its worse now than the 80's ? - I remember lots of people squatting cos they couldn't afford anywhere to live. Before that, I remember soup kitchens during the first miners strike, I remember the 3 day week. I remember houses with no double glazing, no central heating, I remember having to collect logs because there was no coal. I remember having to grow our own veg and having our own hens to have eggs and meat. Convenience food, what the hell was that - fish and chips was the only takeaway. If people are that stupid that they think they just have to waste their money on texts, and the latest fashion accessories then I have no sympathy. If people had to live like they did 40+ years ago, then there would be a revolution. People are spoilt brats today. Houses are affordable, but they are not for the wasteful and they are not for those that don't save. It was drilled into me, that you had to work hard and save hard, I did so from as early as I can remember. The first new bike I got was when I was 25, up until then I had to have a 2nd one. It seems, people have no other concept than how to waste money.

Typical hysterical comment - when base rates hit 5% - yeah maybe, but exactly when do you predict our base rate is going to hit 5%? - this is so far off the scale of likely outcomes that NO ONE except the desperate ones on here are predicting it. The US IRs will probably hit 5% but it is already priced into the £ and we have no reason whatsoever to raise our IRs. Clutching at straws, pissing in the wind etc. comes to mind. Get real won't you. You just destroy your credibility when your argument is based on outlandish possibilities.

And was it ever any different ? You are all making out this is the 'end as we know it' - I suspect its getting better, with less people struggling. I remember the times when 1 in 10 were unemployed, then add on those that were struggling, you probably had nearer 50% of the population struggling. I think one of you chaps with a lot of time on your hands should do some research to see just how bad it is compared to the past 30 years. I have a hunch, that things are pretty good now compared to the past.

Absolutely spot on - I'd vote for you if I could. This is bang on and what the vast and I mean 90+% of the public think. The trouble is that 90% have no one to vote for, all three parties are singing the same liberal baloney. The only party to dare say things like this are the BNP - alot of people would vote for them but are scared of being labelled nazi thugs. I am prepared to take the gamble on this one - I'm not as racist, in fact some of the BNPs policies sound crazy - but where else have I to go. No where. So, I'll be voting to upset the apple cart

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=1...id=alIByzyvCMw0 So, here's a fresh approach to economics that will be introduced to the monthly MPC meeting. Perhaps we should put bromide in his wife's tea, so he gets no sex, then he'll be really grumpy at the MPC and vote to send IRs soaring.

Couldn't compete with the kite flying that goes on in HPCland. You lot make your own kites on a daily basis

Mmmm, good point, why did I waste 2 minutes of my life writing to a bunch of soulless electronic bubble heads. Gave in to the addiction again. Must go to bed, I've gone mad again. Wasting my life trying to educate people ..... learned along time ago it was pointless. Night night.