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Everything posted by TenPinTom

  1. "The endgame is that Britain will default" Agree with this but the default will be subtle and will probably take the form of confiscation of financial wealth to avoid a 'hard default' I consider pensions to be especially vulnerable as they are big and readily accessible Reducing the life-time allowance to £1m before a putative tax is applied is a clever move because no one has sympathy for people with such a big pension, however this amount of cash only buys you an income of 45k p.a and no doubt the life time allowance is only going in one direction and will eventually apply to the average
  2. In reality the labour party were running large hidden deficits in 2005-2008. The country had an inflated 'income' from a growing economy, taxes paid by the banks and a rampant property market. RBS alone paid £16Bn in corporation tax in the run-up to 2007, that is a truly staggering number, although of course not as large as the bailout! I don't totally blame labour as to be fair it was hard to predict to crash. I would blame them for the scandal of PPI which was just another way of borrowing from the future with it showing on the books and has wasted billions of tax payer money Once the tide
  3. Its a comforting to imagine that the if only we could tax evil rich people and corporations everything would be fine - btw. direct expropriation of individuals assets is a very dangerous approach for the government to take You need to take a step back and realise that there are simply natural limits to the possible tax take. UK total tax take is around 35% of GDP and has never been much more than this and never will be. Max tax take was 37.7% in mid eighties, even the most left wing govt can't get more than this because raising tax just discourages taxable activity (by the way Gordon brown w
  4. "I found it incredibly sad. Osborne is the fall guy, inheriting one of the worst economies - maybe, the worst? - in UK history." Agreed. The reality is that no government including thatcher has ever really cut the size of the state as there are so many vested interests within the machinery of government, once you have massively expanded the state its very hard to go backwards, which is why Labours mistakes are so serious. The idea of cutting it back 20-25% in a single parliament was never going to happen. I don't think Osborne has necessarily done a terrible job policy-wise but its just that
  5. >We gave the bankers one of the most important roles in our society- that of credit allocation- and they f*cked it up. They are responsible and they did for reasons of personal >greed. >You have bought into the bankers corrupt world view that they are entitled to do whatever it takes to enrich themselves and their clients- this is self serving bullshite. I actually have some sympathy for this point of view: medicine, law even politic seems to have some residual sense of morality where as financial services has become 100% profit driven with no room for the moral dimension. Wouldn'
  6. “The Bankers were in charge of the lending process- they are responsible for the utterly incompetent way that process has been managed.” Incorrect - bankers were given the task of maximising profits within a legal and regulatory framework set up by government and regulators. Naturally they competed by finding ways to take greater and greater risk. If you are given responsibility to building a mortgage book in a competitive market how can you win market share apart from lowering lending standards or competitive pricing? Consumers and governments were willing participants and enjoyed the boom -
  7. so if bankers are the source of all evil, we can simply ban/fire/replace/eliminate/imprison 20k individuals in the city and carry-on as before? - living in a total dream world how many investment bankers are there in Portugal pr Greece ?
  8. Yes its comforting to blame a few thousand people in the city who fit nicely into a stereotype of evil, champagne swilling bankers somehow causing this all to happen while living the high life - if only we could stop them or jail them, everything would go back to "normal" In reality even if you put all 20,000 investment bankers in jail or somehow closed all the banks it would achieve nothing and be a massive negative to our economy. The whole of western society is to blame for our current predicament. We simply consumed and spent too much and built and created too little for far too long. Y
  9. "The idea that high end economic activity like finance,law, culture and media can drive an economy in isolation from more humble productive work is one of the great delusions of our age. Innovation needs a bedrock of basic skills and industries on which to build. A classic example is the design and production of the Mosquito fighter bomber in World War 2 ," I respectfully but totally disagree with you. Leavesden Aerodrome produced fighters in WW II but in resent times has been used to make Harry Potter which is now the largest film franchise of all time taking $5Bn+ just at the box office.
  10. Interesting post but way too pessimistic Actually outlook for UK is quite positive. You are right to identify that UK cannot and will not catchup with china in mass manufacturing but we have a number of key strengths that other European countries do not. We are especially strong in business and financial services which is much wider than just banking - think asset management, insurance, accounting, legal services, tax services, architecture, strategy consulting, m&a advisory, project finance, film finance, currency exchange etc etc - we are leading players in all of the above. Also we a
  11. I do find myself warming to the guy every time I see him speak. In my mind, some of UKIP policies have a lot of common sense: - Leave EU but remain friend and trading partner like switzerland or Norway and save an absolute fortune in the process, I think its something like £45m per day in contributions - Focus on building trade with fast growing friends in commonwealth - No income tax below £11.5k then flat rate of 31% - Benefits paid only to UK citizens - Take full control of UK waters (70% of Europe's fish), ignore EU quotas - Scrap the human rights act, no votes
  12. Totally agree here I noticed the audience repeatedly bleating - where are the jobs coming from? passively waiting for the state to somehow "create" jobs. No one had the guts to tell them to go create build and innovate themselves - the general tried to make a point about how the north used to be wealth creator but was shouted down by nu-labour drones. Last government proved beyond doubt that when government try to "create" jobs all you get is thousands of diversity officers and petty council officials. Lets not forget that Britain was once a great nation full of dynamism and brilliant inve
  13. "thanks for the list of what bankers should be doing, but arent." - IT monkeys waste 20Bn on NHS computer that doesnt work http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1542486/20bn-NHS-computer-system-doomed-to-fail.html - Doctor amputates woman's arms after she checks in to deliver baby http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread191856/pg1 - Nusrses too lazy to help patients Nurses - http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-396258/Are-nurses-angels-I-dont-think-so.html
  14. - Imagine a Brazilian farmer wants to invest in fertilizer to increase crop yields, he needs to borrow money for a year because he wont get the extra income to pay back the investment until the next harvest - Imagine airbus wants to build a new jet so needs to borrow $10Bn but payback is dependant on the state of the economy in about 20 years because it takes that long to design and build an aircraft - Imagine a postman in the UK wants to retire in 30 years with an income for the rest of his life even though no one knows how long life expectancy will be in 30 years - Imagine you want to ge
  15. Yes they are brainless - but that's why they need some form of protection from rapacious lenders
  16. Hi I did engineering at university - I now sell and trade exotic derivatives at large investment bank. Although there are some downsides (first year can be tough) I basically love my job - hours are OK, its extremely challenging, my colleagues are highly intelligent and motivated and after a couple of years you get a lot of autonomy over your time (as long as you bring in the p&l!!). There are an amazing variety of jobs in the city form bankers slaving away on pitch books to guys with PhDs in maths writing multi-dimensional derivatives models using stochastic calculus. One point on str
  17. "There is nothing in the real economy that could not happen without the City. " Useful things that the city does . . . . - its the UK's number one industry which is actually growing and allows 1% of UK population to produce 17% of UK GDP in a few square miles - provides billions to the corporate and personal tax system - non-polluting, not dangerous - provides a system to grade measure and evaluate in an unbiased way virtually every corporation, mortgage, country, central bank , student loan and credit card customer in the entire world - provides returns to anyone who has a pensi
  18. MadJock having str for 2 years I have also just thrown in the towel!! I recently had an offer accepted for a house in London. Interestingly we saw our place within 2 days of it coming on the market and immediately put in an offer 10k below the asking price. Unfortunatley two competing offers were submitted and we had to increase our offer by 7k to secure the deal - another couple offered the full price but we had the advantage of not being in a chain and holding 50% deposit in cash and the sellers where keen to move fast. I'm sure my experience was an isolated incident becasue the property
  19. "the UK and some other Western economies are a house of cards just waiting to tumble into a major recession. Unemployment will rise and suddenly the indigenous population will resent all the immigrants that have jobs in the NHS " - Marina (housepricecrash.co.uk) "Executive Directors commended the United Kingdom authorities for their skillful macroeconomic management and flexibility in responding to changing economic circumstances, and welcomed the continued robust performance of the economy. Real GDP growth is estimated at about 3 percent in 2004 and is expected to stay stable at about 2½ p
  20. I'm all in favour of immigration/emmigration and if you decide to look for your perfect life in another country I hope you find it. I have lived in a number of other countries and it is a great experience, so I recommend it. I completely agree that the UK has plently of bad sides especially transport which is a joke. I just hate it when people blame immigrants for their probelms when immigrants are the ones with the hardest lives of all - the worst jobs, education, english language skills etc.
  21. I think that the UK is a great country. My parents arrived here as immigrants with nothing to their name in the 60s. I was born in the UK, received a state education and I now have a degree from Cambridge Uni and a great career working in the City were I make a very nice living thank you. IMHO Those that complain about immigration are fools, immigration is the engine of the economy - I paid well in to 6 figures in tax last year so I have made a big contribution to British society, the NHS, state education etc - none of which I actually use btw. Immigrants workers prop-up the NHS and do most
  22. In terms of the general economy the MPC decision is not really a big deal. For consumers the key rates are their mortgage rates and interest rates they recieve in their savings accounts. These rates are derived from the yield curve, not the short term repo rate that the MPC controls. The curve has been flat for at least a year and has recently been inverted - you can check it out here http://www.yieldcurve.com/marketyieldcurve.asp The point is that cut was well priced into the market. If you want a scapegoat for the IR cut look at the faltering economy rather than th MCP
  23. I love the RICS report, it comes across as relatively unbiased and is generally on the bearish end of property reports (especially this month!) its also probably the most forward looking property survey plus it gives a lot of anecdotal evidence. Granted the 'evidence' is well buried below several tonnes of furious VI spinning and outright gibberish but if you look carefully you can see the signs of the true condition of the market and even some quiet desperation. Some of my favourite comments this month . . . . "houses/flats that have been marketing for some time are falling dramatically in p
  24. I've lived in the US before and far prefer living in the UK. Its true that things like gas, food and cloths are far cheaper in the US plus taxes are lower. However you get hammered by the cost of healthcare and especially education and legal costs can be crippling! But its not all about money - I just prefered the culture in the UK (my family is from Greece) , British architecture, sense of history, brit sense of humour, english pubs, radio4, farmers markets, the lake district, greenery, edingburgh festival, London theatre, beautiful country villages etc. my friend introduced me to my new
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