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House Price Crash Forum


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About Luminist

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    HPC Regular
  1. ok, now we are getting somewhere. Never say impossible, there is always a way to do something, even if it's 80% effective. This is the quest which I'm surprised that a website like this is not dedicated more to solving. So are you saying that the financial markets are all expecting a fall in house prices? The general public seem to be in the opposite camp. Where is the arbitrage opportunity in this? Time to start the collective brain, people Best, L
  2. To Mixle/Bruce Banner, I think you are missing the point of my original post. I am asking that if you were in a position to buy a house and were going to do it in any case (for non-financial reasons), what is the best way to hedge against subsequent house price falls (because you are savvy)? Best, L
  3. I assume you mean don't buy in the first place and keep your cash? Well, ok, that's a different scenario, and in that case there would be no need to talk about hedging anything at all would there? I am talking about the case where the house is bought, deal is done. Now, given this, what is the best proxy to use to hedge against this soon to be falling asset? Best, L
  4. So what would the investable strategy be? Best, L
  5. Curt answer, maybe you could offer some justification for this assertion? Have you seen a graph of the gold price over the last 20-30 years alongside a graph of a house price index? Seems like gold and house prices have been more in tandem than not over the last 10 years (positive correlation) which suggests that a strategy to hedge against a house price crash would be to short gold at this point to the value of the house. Is this what you are suggesting? Best, L
  6. This topic must have been discussed before but a Google search didn't bring it up. What would be a good hedging instrument one could invest in to provide a good hedge against a HPC? By good I mean the following: 1. The instrument has to be investable, i.e. a market exists for it. 2. One has to have the ability to go short it. 3. The dealing costs have got to be as low as possible. 4. It has to be a fairly liquid vehicle, so can exit quickly. 5. It has to have a high correlation with a house price index statistically. 6. It can be a compound instrument made up of several different securit
  7. Good question, bashers are quick to believe what they want to believe. If you do a cursory search for the breakdown of China's GDP, you get figures of nothing of the sort Chanos is spewing out. e.g. China agriculture: 9.6% industry: 46.8% services: 43.6% (2010 est.) https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2012.html How do we get 70% from those figures above? I wouldn't be betting the farm on Chanos' trade Best, L
  8. The stealth fighter took its maiden flight today. There are now some really clear photographs of it. It is quite a large airplane in comparison to other 5th generation aircraft, but people are saying that it was built to either have a larger operational radius or carry a heavier weapons load than the F22. Its large airframe is also ideal to house suitable engines to allow it to supercruise. Its airframe is also arguably superior to the F-35 JSF which the future Western armies are pinning their hopes on. This Chinese stealth fighter is going to eat up those F-35 for lunch by the time it gets to
  9. Is there actually a syllable of hard provable fact in your thesis above, or is it just bigotry based on your assumption that the USA is the best just because it's always been that way in your living memory and China is backward and will forever stay that way because they have never been anything otherwise, also in your short living memory and opinion? Best, L
  10. Continuing on China's advances in the realm of avionics, in the last few days, the cover has been taken off the secret stealth fighter programme. The J-20 stealth fighter/bomber is in trials and is expected to fly in the next few days. There are some pictures of it below. A couple of websites have done an initial write-up of this plane and most agree that it is a contender for the F22 and F35 both of which have serious maintenance and cost issues. http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-NOTAM-311210-1.html http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_generic.jsp?channel=awst&id=news/awst/2011/01/
  11. Two things, the first is do you know why a lot of it is empty and is this the same reason why a property in the UK is empty. Secondly, on a per capita basis are you sure that there are more empty homes in China than the UK? Best, L
  12. 1. I think if you are a foreigner you have to be resident for over a year before you can buy a property and I know that they will charge you much more in transaction costs than if you were a local. 2. ok, the BBC figure is a bit high, I'm just going to estimate myself. I reckon that a medium sized 2 bed flat on average is going to set you back at least £120,000. So that's £120,000/60sqm = £2,000 which is still double the UK China. But let's not argue the toss here, Chinese property is a bit expensive if you are an average local resident Best, L Edit : for the strikethrough
  13. Hi guys, I've been looking to purchase properties in China but haven't as yet. I too think that in some areas, prices are a bit more than I would like to pay. However, this may just be me feeling sore at having not bought a couple of years ago when I had the chance. Notwithstanding, I would like to list some differences for you between the Chinese and UK property markets. 1. It is very hard to do BTL in China, especially in big cities. Reason being that in order to buy your first property you need to have about a 30% deposit. For your second property you need 60%, and I think for your third p
  14. The reason why the level of R&D in China is lower than that of say the US is that they are still at the stage of grabbing as much technological know-how as possible from the West. For example, many people in urban and rural areas now have communication by mobile phone. Hence they have skipped all generations of mass communication technology up to the present one. Less than a decade ago, they did not have a civil aviation industry, now they are 3 years away from producing with the help of Western partners their own long distance carrier. They are very pragmatic and it would be how I would d
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