Conquistador

Oops did not see main thread. BBC bear food. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44202542

The Tenant Fees Bill is having its second reading in the House of Commons this afternoon. Might be interesting to watch.

https://www.rics.org/Global/WEB_March_2018_RICS_UK_Residential_Market_Survey_110418_mb.pdf RICS survey reflecting London woes: falling prices, low sales volumes.

SDLT abolished for FTB purchases under £300K

Is he working up to the big-reveal on housing?

Yes, wasn't sure why given that opposition support it?

Today's ONS stats reveal volumes sold in London were the lowest on record for the month of July, even lower than July 2008. Some hefty falls in year-on-year volumes for London boroughs (e.g., Southwark down 50%). Caveat: figures do lag so volumes for this year will increase a little.

"Unusually quiet with negative sentiment continuing. Time to buckle up, unless sales pickup pace this train driver may stall her engine. Not confident at all." One commentator from East London.

Update after July's ONS/LR figures. The median London borough is treading water, but the number that have fallen in nominal terms is not large. Overall London is +2.8% year-on-year. Local authority / Month of peak / % fall from peak to July 2017 (year-on-year % change) City of London / Jul 2016 / -18.4% (-18.4%) City of Westminster / Feb 2017 / -7.3% (-2.5%) Brent / Oct 2016 / -3.3% (-1.2%) Hounslow / Apr 2017 / -2.9% (+0.0) Waltham Forest / Mar 2017 / -1.9% (+4.1%) Newham / Sep 2016 / -1.8% (+0.5%) Hackney / Mar 2017 / -1.1% (+9.3%) Barnet / Mar 2017 / -0.9% (+1.9%) Tower Hamlets / Mar 2016 / -0.2% (+5.6%) peaked? - Enfield, Hammersmith and Fulham, Harrow, Kensington & Chelsea, Merton, Southwark rising - Barking & Dagenham, Bexley, Bromley, Croydon, Ealing, Greenwich, Haringey, Havering, Hililngdon, Islington, Kingston-upon-Thames, Lambeth, Lewisham, Redbridge, Richmond-on-Thames, Sutton, Wandsworth

Heard this - worth a listen. One working group suggested a govt-imposed limit to HPI but this was pooh-poohed by David Willetts as too state interventionist. I guess Help to Buy isn't?!

Agree about the lack of diversity. The average age of Topsham residents must be north of 55 and the pubs are full of the affluent retired yabbering about their yacht. A staunchly Conservative place (with a Conservative club). I wouldn't fit in. Different world from Exeter altogether.

Exeter is bubbling. An unhealthy +11% HPI in the city last year (ONS/LR) although transaction levels look to be down about 20%. The rest of Devon (including Plymouth) hasn't increased much over the previous peak.

Well yes, I think it was 20.

Update after June's ONS/LR figures. +2.9% yearly change (all boroughs). Half of boroughs are falling over, half still edging up. Local authority / Month of peak / % fall from peak (yearly change) City of London / Jul 2016 / -10.2% (-20.3%) [very low volumes] Waltham Forest / Mar 2017 / -5.1% (+2.8%) Newham / Sep 2016 / -4.5% (-1.3%) Hackney / Mar 2017 / -3.3% (+10.0%) Greenwich / Jun 2016 / -3.1% (-3.1%) Brent / Oct 2016 / -3.0% (-0.9%) City of Westminster / Feb 2017 / -2.6% (+2.7%) Barnet / Mar 2017 / -2.1% (-0.2%) Hammersmith and Fulham / Apr 2017 / -1.9% (-0.3%) Islington / Aug 2016 / -1.8% (+2.0%) Haringey / Feb 2017 / -1.7% (+5.0%) Redbridge / Jan 2017 / -1.2% (+4.3%) Richmond-on-Thames / Jul 2016 / -0.6% (+2.9%) Lambeth / Sep 2016 / -0.3% (+3.9%) Ealing / Feb 2017 / -0.3% (+2.5%) Enfield, Hounslow, Kensington & Chelsea, Lewisham, Merton - peaked? Barking & Dagenham, Bexley, Bromley, Croydon, Harrow, Havering, Hillingdon, Kingston upon Thames, Southwark, Sutton, Tower Hamlets, Wandsworth - still rising

+3.0% (+5.0% in all of England).

Update after May's ONS/LR figures. Stagnation. Local authority / Month of peak / % fall from peak to May 2017 (annualised % fall) City of London / Jul 2016 / -10.2% (-12.2%) Tower Hamlets / Mar 2016 / -4.7% (-4.0%) Haringey / Feb 2017 / -3.7% (-11.1%) Greenwich / Feb 2017 / -3.0% (-12.0%) Hackney / Mar 2016 / -3.0% (-2.6%) Wandsworth / Oct 2016 / -2.8% (-5.6%) Brent / Oct 2016 / -2.4% (-4.2%) Lambeth / Sep 2016 / -1.6% (-2.4%) Newham / Sep 2016 / -1.4% (-2.1%) Islington / Aug 2016 / -1.3% (-1.8%) Redbridge / Aug 2016 / -1.1% (-3.3%) Croydon / Aug 2016 / -1.1% (-1.5%) Richmond-on-Thames / Jul 2016 / -1.0% (-1.2%) Barking & Dagenham / Oct 2016 / -0.9% (-1.5%) Kingston / Jul 2016 / -0.2% (-0.2%) Barnet, Havering, Hounslow, Lewisham, Waltham Forest - peaked? Bexley, Bromley, City of Westminster, Ealing, Enfield, Hammersmith and Fulham, Harrow, Hillingdon, Kensington & Chelsea, Merton, Southwark, Sutton - still rising

Over last 25+ years, (New) Lab and Con were both balls-deep invested in HPI and short-termist pandering to the British obsession. Can't take party politics seriously on that.

Healey didn't answer the question about whether HTB was inflationary. Not surprising given that it was in Labour's recent manifesto to extend HTB until 2022.

Update after April's ONS/LR figures. There was quite a lot of updating in the LR stats for recent months, so some of the juicier reductions have been flattened or even reversed. Overall, stagnation in real terms is basically the story. It boggles the mind that prices have almost doubled over London as a whole since April 2009. This will not end well. Local authority / Month of peak / % fall from peak (Apr 2017) (annualised % fall) City of London / Jul 2016 / -5.4% (-7.2%) Wandsworth / Oct 2016 / -4.2% (-8.4%) Islington / Aug 2016 / -3.2% (-4.8%) Brent / Oct 2016 / -2.5% (-5.0%) Kingston / Jul 2016 / -2.5% (-3.4%) Lambeth / Sep 2016 / -2.1% (-5.0%) Croydon / Aug 2016 / -1.0% (-1.5%) Bromley / Aug 2016 / -0.9% (-1.3%) Richmond-on-Thames / Jul 2016 / -0.4% (-0.5%) Redbridge / Aug 2016 / -0.2% (-1.0%) Barking & Dagenham / Oct 2016 / -0.1% (-0.2%) City of Westminster, Hackney, Haringey, Havering, Hillingdon, Kensington & Chelsea, Lewisham, Waltham Forest - peaked? Barnet, Bexley, Ealing, Enfield, Greenwich, Hammersmith & Fulham, Harrow, Hounslow, Merton, Newham, Southwark, Sutton, Tower Hamlets - rising

In today's debate in the Commons, Tory MP Richard Bacon asked the Labour shadow housing minister, John Healey, if he worried about HTB being inflationary. Healey replied that HTB was necessary and the main flaw was that it was helping people with incomes over £100K. Deep denial in both parties as the HPI cancer is so profound.

Biggest upset: LSE awarded bronze.

As stated above, it's very important to have a very detailed overview of the state of the market in your area. Price trends, reductions, average time to sell, median reductions for sold prices. Unfortunately I know that in my town 75% of properties that sell achieve at least 95% of initial asking price, so low-balling is not very realistic most of the time. But do it anyway!

Just posted borough data on Prime Central London crashing thread: inner core meltdown with some outer boroughs continuing to rise. Bearish boroughs: City of London / Jul 2016 / -13.8% from peak (-20.7% annualised) Islington / Aug 2016 / -9.4% (-16.1%) Tower Hamlets / Oct 2016 / -7.0% (-16.8%) Southwark / Sep 2016 / -5.8% (-11.6%) Brent / Oct 2016 / -5.1% (-12.2%)

Update after March's ONS/LR figures. Three-quarters of London boroughs now falling. I don't think it's an exaggeration to state that the inner core is crashing. Some outer boroughs continue to rise. Local authority / Month of peak / % fall from peak (Mar 2017) (annualised % fall) City of London / Jul 2016 / -13.8% (-20.7%) Islington / Aug 2016 / -9.4% (-16.1%) Tower Hamlets / Oct 2016 / -7.0% (-16.8%) Southwark / Sep 2016 / -5.8% (-11.6%) Brent / Oct 2016 / -5.1% (-12.2%) Newham / Sep 2016 / -4.4% (-8.8%) Lambeth / Sep 2016 / -4.3% (-8.6%) Wandsworth / Aug 2016 / -4.1% (-8.2%) Barking & Dagenham / Oct 2016 / -3.5% (-8.4%) Hammersmith and Fulham / Aug 2015 / -3.2% (-2.3%) Bromley / Aug 2016 / -2.3% (-3.9%) Merton / Aug 2016 / -2.2% (-3.8%) Enfield / Sep 2016 / -2.1% (-4.3%) Sutton / Aug 2016 / -2.1% (-3.6%) Kingston / Jul 2016 / -2.0% (-3.0%) Richmond-on-Thames / Jul 2016 / -1.9% (-2.8%) Ealing / Jul 2016 / -1.8% (-2.7%) Redbridge / Aug 2016 / -1.6% (-2.2%) Lewisham / Aug 2016 / -0.8% (-1.4%) Croydon / Aug 2016 / -0.6% (-1.0%) City of Westminster, Greenwich, Haringey, Waltham Forest - peaked? Barnet, Bexley, Hackney, Harrow, Havering, Hillingdon, Hounslow, Kensington & Chelsea - rising

London +1.5% annual - a real terms fall.