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House Price Crash Forum


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About PiXeL8r

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  1. Gold, silver and mining shares are all very much related and anyone involved in gold should include them in their strategy. I now remember exactly why I stopped posting on this forum in 2008, full of jobs worths ruining any honest interesting conversation. I will go back to where I came from and leave you to it!
  2. The chart is showing first a break from the bullish falling wedge in February this year. Here is a description of a falling wedge pattern - http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:falling_wedge_reversal It is also showing that we are currently challenging the correction downtrend. As this breaks the it will cause a lot of technical buying by institutions and managed money.
  3. Since some old friends are now posting on here thought I'd pop by and give my thoughts and say hi. Gold is testing the multiyear correction downtrend currently. I am expecting that we will see it clearly break this over the coming month and it will start to be mainstream news again, where the masses and the institutional money starts to come back in. I am also expecting silver to really start moving again once this break is confirmed. The gold and silver miners are at the beginning of a longterm bull market, even though they have already moved substantially over the last 6 months.If you look at the ratio charts you can see that we ain't seen nothing yet. Gold gives stability, silver gives leverage to gold's action and the miners move multiples of both. I like a mixture of all 3 and swap between them at opportune times. Currently I am heavier silver and miners but always keep a base holding of gold.
  4. You would have done much better than average if you just bought at the PM fix on option expiry days each month. Simples.
  5. The things with ETFs is that when they are sold the seller does not have to deliver gold to the exchange, they just take a paper negative position. What do you think will happen when the end game finally arrives? I predict that these ETFs will not perform as described, due to bankrupt bullion banks defaulting on their shorts.
  6. Why can't you believe it after the BoE has just announced another 75B of QE? Creating money via QE devalues the currency, as they devalue the currency everything that is priced in it gets more expensive, some things move quicker than others though. Here's an interesting graph that James Turk was publishing for a while, it's a bit old now but proves the point. It shows that the QE by the FED had a direct relationship with the S&P value. Really the markets crashed in '08 but have not increased in buying power since, they have just increased in the value of a fiat currency that is being devalued.
  7. From the 1970's till now and BTW I don't think that gold is in a bubble, I think there is a fiat debt bubble.
  8. I am not shy and perfectly happy to debate the reason for gold's rise with you. 1972-1980 was not a crash the price of gold went up by around 24 times. If you remember that in 1980 Paul Volcker started getting inflation under control by raising interest rates from 11% in 1979 to a high on 21.5% in 1982. This action bought interest rates back to be positive rather than them being in the negative state they had been for most of the 70's. Negative rates means interest rate being below the inflation rate, which is particularly good for gold prices. It was decided at the time that to control inflation that interest rates had to be set at 2% above the inflation rate. These days we have heavily negative interest rates, you get paid virtually nothing on your fiat currency even though it is losing heavily once you factor in the government's heavily manipulated CPI rate. If you actually go off the CPI rate as it actually was created in the 1970's things look even worse. There is no way that interest rates will go positive for many years yet, as the governments around the world have far to much debt and also a load of toxic MBS debt on their books, which is highly IR sensitive. Here's a good chart for you to contemplate, it shows gold's performance on a YoY basis under different levels of real interest rates. Bear in mind that I think this chart is produced off the government reported CPI figures which have been heavily changed over the time and now read a lot lower.
  9. I work it out from the linear chart as the figures are easier to see. 750 - 4800 / 4800 x 100 = -84.37% So the average UK house price has already crashed 84.37% when valued in the devil metal.
  10. Looking at this graph you can see that while HPC has been ignoring gold and banishing the old gold thread to the backwaters, that the average UK house price when valued in gold has already fallen around 76% since 2004. Value - Cost / Cost x 100 = % 175 - 720 / 720 x 100 = 75.69% 'Ahead of the curve' And BTW it looks even more drastic if you look at in silver with a fall of 84% already.
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