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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Confounded

  1. Spot on and this is exactly the problem, the financial crisis and even the sequence of events such as we are in atm were/are fairly easy to call, even if people did not want to see it (parents called me a doom monger 9 months before NR and the first bank run in 130 year, although all I was telling them is what has actually happened). Now they come across more negative than me. I too regularly get asked for advice, what advice can be given in this environment when the natural economic forces are there to destroy wealth and you have the politician doing all they can to preserve it. Certainly going to be an interesting 10 years.
  2. Say one thing do another, seems to be a common theme for this goverment.
  3. The Government was not even paying for the FIT! It is projected to add £3 to everyone’s energy bill by 2015. A rounding error in the rise the energy companies have got away with in the last few years. We are long past the point where governments are limited by taxing and redistributing. You name me "businesses that are actually productive" and you will not have to make many steps before you find Government influence.
  4. You show me an industry and I will show you one reliant on Government subsidy either directly or indirectly.
  5. Surely you have been on this site long enough to understand the impact of housing benefit on the housing market and rent. A clear example where I live, we are renting for £435 from a friend (fair value around £650) next door identical house came up for rent after we moved in for £775 and was not even needed to be advertised and went to someone on housing benefit. His monthly family income was under £1000 from his employment. Can you see how it works, just another part of the perfect set up created to goose the housing market into oblivion.
  6. Timely topic. I have a small business and are we are expanding rapidly, however we are doing this through contracting labour on a daily rate from established businesses. Many of the services we use we could do in house if we employed another 4 or so people however we just do not want to take on this liability. Talking to one of the business owners we used for the first time yesterday, not only has he cut his workforce significantly he is also moving out of his commercial premisses and resuming working from home as he did 6 years ago. He is much more profitable this way. I was speaking to another business owner that we used last week and a few years ago he had 80 employees, he discovered that he was making less money with this number of employees than when he started out he is desperately trying to cut back to where he started from. He has the work demand to fulfil his old level of employment but just does not want it. It is not all house prices as tax and employments laws play there part, but I am convinced of the link to high wage demands. Also high house prices have made myself and business partner greedy in terms of what we want to earn to achieve the living standards we want. Employing people is more becoming a public service than part of a sound business plan these days.
  7. My guess would be it represents hidden inflation. If you underestimate the real inflation rate it makes lots of figures look better than they would otherwise. GDP, retail sales etc. The one thing you can not hide is peoples opinion on their current purchasing power.
  8. Spot on We are less than 25% below the artificial top in the DOW in 07 when they pumped it up from 12000 to 14000 in preparation for the first phase of the financial crisis. Currently we are less than 10% from the 12000 level pre pump. I would say they are doing a pretty good job of preserving the "wealth" generated in the credit bubble. Where next though?
  9. President Oboma was on television on Friday night after the "Market Turmoil" (DOW was up 60 points on Friday) telling the nation "we will get through this" The DOW is 18% from it's all time high, something does not add up if you are looking for the markets to reflect reality.
  10. Anyone else hear John Snow say "into this depression" when he was summarising how easy it had been to find these bad examples?
  11. Yep, I remember meeting someone on holiday in 1994 who could not even pronounce the name of the town he had just bought 400 houses in at the cost of £5k a pop. Military houses that in this overinflated market would be worth £150K now. Amazing what can happen in a few decades of debauched monetary policy.
  12. The climatic data is provided by meteorologists on data compiled over many years, it appears your memory of the UK is overly gloomy and may be why you are struggling getting your head around the viability in this country. No clear sky's every day, as I said in my post it has been pretty average weather. Also as stated the gerneration ranged from 2kWh/kWp/day installed to 6.5/kWh/kWp/day. Someone who has had a system installed for a year has achieved 4100kWh in a year on a South East facing roof. This represents a FIT income alone of £1,839. One other sytem we installed achieved 1100kWh in March and April (these were not normal weather condition for this time of year with it being very settled), this represents £493 in two months of generation! I am very confident our customers will return all their capital in 7 years on a South West to South East facing roof. We can argue all day if the FIT is too generous or unfair but with it in place PV is currently very generous in this country.
  13. The solar radiation levels quoted for Devon and Barcelona was taken directly from our design software (Here) because we use accurate climatic data to evaluate our system designs. It appears you are such an expert on the subject you may even have some advice for them as they also predict very good yields for systems in the UK which has no sun... The other data was provided from a customer that was downloaded directly from his inverter, I did not ask for it he was just so pleased with his start that he wanted to share it. It was on a Westerly roof! He averaged 16.75kWh/day (£7.51/day) over the last 16 days. He had a low of 7.64kWh/day (£3.43) and had a heigh of 23.91 kWh/day (£10.72). Total FIT payment generated for the 16 days provided was £120.20. With a system cost of £11,850 it shows 1% of capital invested has been paid off in 16 days and this ignores the benefits from energy savings in the house. Our customers when you include the energy savings with the feed in tariff for a south facing roof will achieve a 7 year payback and in some case we expect a 6 year payback.
  14. What rubbish, the UK is clearly not blessed with the best solar radiation but Barcelona gets less than 50% more solar radiation than the UK, South Devon 1062 kWh/m2/year compared to 1524 kWh/m2/year for Barcelona. A customer from 3 weeks ago sent me their generation data and it showed they had generated (using the FIT) 1.05% of the capital investment in just over 2 weeks and this is recently when the weather has been pretty average. Before making any judgements just talk to someone who has been on the scheme for a while and see how they are doing.
  15. I run a renewable energy company so do have a vested interest in solar power and the Feed In Tariff scheme which was introduced last year. Some of your figures are not quite right. The current FIT is 43.3p for every kWh produced with an addition 3.1p for exported energy. Most energy suppliers (who fund the scheme through a levy on all electricity consumers) assume a customer will use 50% of the energy they produce and export 50%. So this gives a price of 44.85p per kWh produce. A Typical 4kWp (the tariff drops after this level) south facing system in South Devon, where we operate, will generate 4000kWh/year (we have to quote using an industry standard called SAP2005 which is based on Sheffield Climatic data and would indicate our customers would only generate 3300kWh/year). A typical breakdown is £1800 FIT payment £200 saved on electricity bill Installation cost £14k Your figures of £20k installation costs are excessive, if you seek a local installer you will get a 4kWp system with quality components fully installed for the price given above. With a total yearly benefit of £2000 it gives a return on investment of 15%. This is TAX free and RPI linked for 25 years! The tariff for new entrants is scheduled for regression with it reducing each year. Although I am in the industry the current tariff and the current installation costs make it the best time to consider installing solar power.
  16. If you need to draw your money out after it's first year anniversary and inflation is -0.5 then you will only receive the 0.5% for the whole year. Buying these when inflation is at near 5% seems a brave move. The best time to buy them was in early 09.
  17. Totally agree, nothing is in the bag yet, especially given the most recent data. We need a good 10 percent fall over the next 12 months to confirm the standard investment bubble. Houses where I live are looking more crashy than during 08 with failed sales and falling prices, I am impressed with how robust the indexes have been this year.....
  18. 9 months on, looking a good call but a decent 5-10% fall is need over the next 6 months to confirm the classic investment bubble.
  19. I would say it was a pretty good call :-) http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=147716 I was judging the start of the fear phase to occur when the bull trap rolled over, looks pretty convincing so far, however we need some pretty good falls over the next 6 months to hold to the standard investment cycle.
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