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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Confounded

  1. I have a huge vested interest but being a small local company carrying out 90% of our work in a 20 miles radius of base it is not exactly going to have an impact on my business! My post was a genuine attempt to help fellow HPC (see my forum history, I am not a shill with 100 post to my name) Having worked in the industry I am staggered at how far solar has come over the last few years and wanted to share my take on the current pricing of solar as a previous poster was interested in PV as an investment, I nearly put "do you own research" but it was quite clear in my post I have a vested interest.
  2. Solar is an incredible investment at current prices, in fact I think the next few weeks are likely to be the best time ever to invest in Solar PV. It will be a short window because we are already being warned of impending price rises in equipment with the Euro strengthening against the pound. Also possibly as early as March the EU may impose anti dumping taxes on Chinese panels. Combine this with the last of the dumping of panels from wholesalers that went bust last year and it is quite possible we have seen the last of the deflation for solar PV. The Chinese have been subsidising Solar PV by billions and we have benefited from massive falls in panel prices. Some panels we were using 3 years ago are 1/3 of the price I can get them today. The prices we are currently quoting at would lead to a 12% return and 8 year payback WITHOUT A FEED IN TARIFF based on a good quality £6k 4kWp system, south facing roof in SW and using all the energy produced in the home. With the FIT 6 year payback is achievable with the scheme running for 20 years. Returns are better than in the boom two years ago but most people think solar is dead....
  3. Yes at the time my brother purchased only 130 other people on a national level bought in that price range in the month they completed. They even had the foresight to put a legal exclusivity agreement in place with the sellers. On a national level this seemed absurd at the time but for this street/area where they bought it was actually used. His situation is very localised and there were some elements of the whole process that looked to be bordering on insanity (buying such a house while struggling to sell in another in part of the country that was a lot more depressed) but it is typical of my brother to come out smelling of roses and it is something I have accepted all my life. True, but intergenerational wealth transfer is just about to pick up and most deposit will come from these means, especially if people think the worse is behind us for the housing market. Given the rule changes and reluctance of the government to prosecute fraud predicting when this ends is a lot hard than it seemed in 09.
  4. My brother had a go at me yesterday for despite all my doom and gloom and staying ahead of the curve on economic matters it has not made me any money. Not completely true and I am happy with my approach. He is just in extreme survivor euphoria mode, he has a large mortgage he took out in 09 on a property in one of the few locations in the country that bottomed out exactly when he bought and bounced back hard, essentially making £100k per year for the last 4 years, something I was convinced would be impossible at time of purchase. Now to the point of my post which is at 2.75% mortgage rate his mortgage is extremely affordable on the interest payment side with the repayment side being manageable forced savings. I had always discussed with him it is possible (felt quite unlikely) we could get another phase in the property cycle if interest rates where what he is paying for the next 10 years (quite likely by the looks of things now). Give Money at 1% and 15 times income multiples and everyone will be able to afford the £million home they dream of. As many of the bulls argued before the crash affordability has over taken income multiples as the key metric, it appears they were right. Valuations across the country when measured against income are still pretty extreme, but when measured against affordability the central banks have achieved their goal. What happens when we reach the end of this cycle god knows, but they could start paying people to take on a mortgage, anything is possible now the rule book has been torn up.
  5. Looked into it in some detail and live just outside of Plymouth, these figures are not out of line with what is achievable by purchasing a house of multiple occupancy. The main worry is the amount of accommodation the Uni is building (and projects like that discussed) and when the uni degree bubble will pop. My boss of 4 years ago was being encouraged to buy into Plymouth Student properties by his business partner and I gently express my HPC views. This was back in 08 where I was convinced even a 50% drop in property prices would still not be classed as cheap and equally convinced that the student bubble would burst as soon as tuition fees of 9K kicked in, neither of which has happened (yet). It now only cost 4% to borrow and if you can fill your house with students 9% is not a bad return.
  6. In Germany peak unit cost has fallen in the wake of renewable adoption. Fitting PV or other microgeneration technology seriously undermines revenues for the big 6 do you really expect them to let their business slip away?
  7. Nor had I, my Mother works for her local Citizen Advice Bureau, this has had to just close due to pension liabilities of over £100k for two permanent staff that had long since left. Utter madness.
  8. I went to London for the first time in a while to have a University reunion, we did not go to a London University it is just where all my house mates ended up. I stayed with one of my friends and discovered that my house is a decimal place of his. Still happy with my lot though.... On another London anecdote I have family friends who are brothers, one is in London and one in Canada, the Canadian brother wants to move back. When he came back recently to see his friends in London NONE, despite having coveted jobs, encouraged him back to London. Some, despite living in London with young families, had such demands on them that they would sleep in the office for at least 2 nights of the week. I argued in 2007 prior to the crash that London was a mega bubble, even if it halved in price it would still be in a bubble, the crash came and London is now ahead of 2007 levels, can only watch on the sidelines now. What I can't understand is that my friends were envious of where I live and the business I have, a pretty average property in London after this bubble has left people with a Million in equity, they could live many places outside London mortgage free and not need a business or job.... All I hope is people in London get caught in the headlights and miss out the opportunity to make this sort of move.
  9. I have come home to find this in my inbox from Rightmove, what is going on! I am not a troll, look at my registration date. I just can't see how we can be 5 years (6 years since I was convinced what the future for house prices would be ) into the GFC and this is still going on. 3 months lull nearly erased in one month. Interesting narrative but the delusion persist, last gasp? October saw a 3.5% (+£8,310) jump in new seller average asking prices, the biggest increase for eight months. This goes a long way towards reversing the Olympic-induced price lull over the summer, which saw asking prices of property coming to market fall by 4.6% (-£11,377) over the three months between June and September. This price rebound indicates the market is not performing as badly as some feared. However, sellers look to try for a higher price should note Rightmove research which finds that fewer than two in five potential buyers state that they would actually arrange to visit a property if they consider it to 'match their criteria but be over-priced'. Miles Shipside, director and housing market analyst at Rightmove comments: "This month's jump of more than £8,000 in asking prices is partly an anticipated bounce after the Olympic-induced activity doldrums, though with all regions seeing increases it also provides evidence of some life in the market. The prospect of a few active selling weeks before the winter slowdown means estate agents are keen to attract fresh stock to try and land more buyers. However, this stock-building could backfire if they agree to over-ambitious pricing to please a seller, as it could curb a potential buyer's enthusiasm to arrange a viewing if the over-priced alarm bell starts ringing."
  10. When I had a bit more time on my hand I used to do all grain brewing which follows the same process as the brewery's to make real ale, all quality ingreadiants and on the small scale I did it when considering ingredients, water and energy to boil the water it worked out around 20p a pint. Suspect the big guys can get it below 10p a pint.
  11. £1.38 according to this http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-1633409/Historic-inflation-calculator-value-money-changed-1900.html
  12. I have not heard it mentioned, but good to hear it has been covered. Average cost is far from meaningless, it is everything, it is the cost per staff delivered, they could all be put up in the Savoy and fed caviare with G4S not making any money, but it is still a staggering cost to delivery the security requirements.
  13. The Maths I am interested in is the cost/per promised security guard £20,800
  14. As with many I find it hard to believe we cannot recruit sufficient security for the Olympics when we have the level of unemployment we currently have, however I am struggling with other aspects of G4S mess. They have been contracted to provide 13700 security guards for the Olympics (not sure the length but can't be more than 4 weeks from start to finish given the games are only 2 weeks), for this they have a contract of £284million. Not seen the maths done anywhere on these numbers, I will let you do it yourself..... They are going to be docked a poultry £50M for not delivering, all I can say is WOW.
  15. I work in the industry, can you share your research which backs up your concerns for longevity? It is a very simple technology that has been around for over 100 years. I can see some of the second tier Chinese manufacturers that are very transient entities that could have quality issues but I have seen nothing that would suggest a shortened life for panels, quite the opposite in fact. Here is a panel with round cells. The cells are manufactured from a round billet that is normally trimmed to a square to increase the number of cells per panel (lots of wasted space between circular cells which decreases the output from a given area).
  16. I think many of the top brand panels will still be producing 20 years after the FIT expires (which runs for 25 years).
  17. Some see a near doubling by year end, a crack up boom has always been a possibility. DOW 20000 by Year End
  18. Wonder if he will call the top? Probably after the elections...
  19. It is little talked about but Obama made a legendary call 2 days before one of the largest stock market rallies in history. On the 3rd of March he said How right was he, it appears some people are blessed with many talents.
  20. I thought we had the right crowd in when they promised us no more boom and bust. As a young person I watched house prices more than dobule beofre I was in a position to buy, they then went up a a further 50% from there.........
  21. Does any one have any data to verify this? It seems an astonishing figure.
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