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Confounded

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Everything posted by Confounded

  1. This is why I am supporting no deal as it is the best and most democratic direction. I will be disappointed if the EU force through May’s deal when parliament and the people do not want it.
  2. The public, the politicians have already cleared their names from a no deal, legislation might force it. However I suspect it is in the EUs interested we are saddled with a “deal” .
  3. My feeling is a no deal is better than the deal and staying in is better than the deal.
  4. You might be right, on that basis I expect they will not vote for an extension and we will leave on the 29th as planned. It would prove to all the doubters we were lucky to get the deal we were offered.
  5. A question for those who read the whole 500 page withdrawal agreement, is the proposed deal better than staying in the EU?
  6. It looks less likely for a no deal but there may be some further twists. It is looking like May was getting coached on European democracy during most her visits, I.e keep taking votes until they get the answer they want.
  7. Not really what I was looking for in answers but I do take your point. Having been a HPC veteran from 2006 and positioned myself to be very flexible in work and in terms of financial resilience I guess that is why I am as comfortable with no deal as staying in.
  8. Because No Deal brexit has never been discussed in the media without hyperbole and emotion, can you explain some of the key reasons why a no deal brexit will be bad. Remember we are on HPC and quoting institutions or government bodies dire prediction does not count. Also remember we will have a £39b buffer to smooth short term pain. Not a wnd up question, I genuinely want to be convinced the route we are travelling is the right route and that no deal is not needed.
  9. Can you provide me a list of these mystical products? In the same way we can’t punish the EU under the WTO terms they can not punish us. As we make new arrangements that deficit may reduce as we do deals with more flexible nations, maybe the EU will play hard ball or maybe we will continue a positive relationship. If under duress something similar to last nights deal gets done, what leverage do we have in those negotiations, of which we face years of. With the prospect of the backstop looming and the Spanish fighting us over Gibraltar etc. I can only see us being in a very weak negotiating position. Are you happy to proceed with last nights deal? Will it be good for Britain? Or would we be best to stay in? If I was given the choice of May’s deal or stay in I would vote stay in (as I feel 70% would choose). If given the choice of Mays deal or no deal I would vote for no deal (as I feel 70% would choose)
  10. £90b deficit says we will have some say in those terms! I agree when May took over and David Davis left a sensible deal disappeared for me. We have years of negotiating ahead whichever path we take, WTO has been my prefered root and nothing I have seen has changed my mind on it.
  11. Ok, a better deal than staying in the EU was never going to be negotiated! The point is we chose as a nation to leave, in my circle of close friends and family I know only 2 that voted leave. My Aunt was one of them and my Uncle argued very much like you and the others on this thread, he even called her stupid for her decision in front of me. Despite having only a few days earlier voted remain I found myself very much on her side despite idolising my uncle most my life for his guidance. It will be a negotiation, if we have to pay to get access to their goods and it is necessary I am sure we will. What if they need items we produce, with such a deficit surely we have some tools negotiate with. The pound may well fall but there are many scenarios that will effect that in the near, medium and long term. You are arguing like it is the week after the brexit vote, people voting to leave are ignorant and based their decision on a few months of dubious campaigning and not drawing on their life experience of being in the EU and seeing what it had morphed to into. The old duffers (don’t think I am one as it was my 40th birthday on the 24th June 2016, not a day to forget....) may well be drawn on life knowledge rather than a sticker on a bus the BBC likes to believe guided peoples votes. Within my familiy and cirlce on friends there has been a shift to leave and leave on WTO if that is the only option.
  12. Are you included in the few people who know what WTO trade would do to this country? We have had people on here say WTO would takes years/decades to negotiate. Yet had the deal gone through last night it was going to take the same amount of time, only we would be in the grasp of the EU during the process. Since the 24th June 2016 (as stated before I marginally voted to stay to keep the status quo) it seemed logical to me no deal would be achieved. It also seemed pretty logical to me that if you buy more from someone than they buy from you it should at least mean they negotiate fairly even if we did not exert the upper hand. We also have the small matter of £39billion that could be used to facilitate the trade deal and smooth the inevitable bumps. So nearly 3 years has past, a deal has proven to be impossible and we have a choice of leaving or staying. 3 years has been wasted let’s not waste any more time.
  13. MP’s will not vote for it, they will put it on the EU27 who I have a feeling may want to get this closed. PM revoking A50 would be very interesting.....
  14. Quite possibly, but I don’t think that will go well with the electorate.
  15. I have a feeling, this has just been confirmed by Elmer Brook, that the EU will not allow an extension, so the EU will force the no deal.
  16. There is a lot of conjecture and fear in there. People who spout this fear seem to feel taking back control means we will become a child who will injure and self harm. No doubt there will be some bumps and taking time is no issue, we will be building a new future and direction. Anyway if the amendments appease the ERG then we will have a deal today, interesting times..
  17. The most critical deals wil be achieved very quickly. I am happy for us to refine our trade deals over decades. Britain is referred to as treasure Island.....
  18. No deal will offer no immediate stability (we should have bitten that bullet 2 years ago) but I suspect the 80/20 would come into play with this situation where after 2 years of WTO negotiations we would likely have resolve 80% of the most important deals by then with many years of refinement (should we choose to). Saying it took 40+ years to negotiate deals demonstrates the European treacle many want to escape. 500 pages in May’s deal just demonstrates that again. One thing that I am certain of is as a net importer from Europe they have an incentive to want to trade with us, as we will with them. Anyway with May’s current breakthrough it is possible this is all academic and the deal will get voted for tomorrow. Interesting times.
  19. Pretty succinct commentary, still baffled why we did not use the last 2 years to negotiate WTO trade deals, we would be done by now. As he states we are either in or out, we chose out (I voted in but it was as close as the final result for me in making that decision) so the day after the vote I wanted a WTO approach as we were going to create years of uncertainty otherwise. I know a lot of people who voted in but now just want to leave cleanly on 29th March. Will the politicians understand how far public opinion has swung on this since the referendum and get this sorted.
  20. I spotted that this morning quantitive error this morning, I have not posted for years but that deserves a hat tip as could not have put it better myself! For the rule of thumb of 1/3 land 1/3 building cost and 1/3 profit their numbers seem pretty normal. In the world of lower and lower interest rates that rule of thumb has held true, it is just the government has stepped in to extend the “norm” now interest rate have nowhere to go.
  21. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/technology-25138627/quest-for-lost-hard-drive-with-4m-stored-bitcoins Yes that poor guy, would be worth 18m now....
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