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Confounded

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Everything posted by Confounded

  1. Spot on, I very much doubt leaving on WTO terms would be a meaningful fraction of the 2008 financial crisis. Let’s just leave on WTO terms and move on to more important issues. You have to wonder why May and the EU are so keen to stop us leaving cleanly......
  2. Well the genie is out of the bottle and it still seems very simple to me. Remain is better than a bad deal in exactly the same way that WTO is better than a bad deal. The country voted leave so how politicians are advocating a referendum between May’s deal (German written treaty) or remain is incredible. II think the long term effects are impossible to guage, but I think they will eventually be positive, I voted remain to avoid the journey getting there during a key part of my working life.
  3. Again you assume we have no leverage in the situation, were we not a net contributor to the EU and also not operating such a substantial trade deficit I would agree with much of what you say. I also agree we need to treat the EU with respect and pay our dues and I am sure we will do this, we want to maintain friendships and cooperation. Necessity is the mother of invention, as an earlier poster said there will be lots of issues not envisaged at this stage, there will be a lot to work through, but because we have leverage I am sure will work these things out in the critical areas pretty quickly. This is forming a new future, it is worth fighting for ( not literally). We are discussing things we can’t possible predict as individuals, but surely breaking our EU membership will be less disruptive than the periods of trouble our grandparents and great grandparents went through..... I mentioned the mad cows disease in an earlier post, we were all going to get it, in the end only 150 people contracted it. Can you remember in the Iraq war they smashed and set fire to the oil wells, we were told there would take years if not decades to put out. They quickly improved the method they tackled them and it was all resolved very quickly. No deal (as you correctly point out is not no deal but a move to WTO terms), has all the hall marks of a grossly exaggerated situation.
  4. Yes, we have already have already been down graded because of brexit and we lost AAA on 2013 when brexit did not exist. I think we would get through that.... No deal will not be smooth but I feel it will be a lot smoother than the common belief installed by project fear. However if it is bad most of us should just be happy to be alive and not dead with BSE as predicted.....
  5. I believe people voted to leave the EU, deal or no deal. May stated No deal is better than a bad deal over 100 times. It is clear due to the resistance her deal is a bad deal so no deal it should be. I would support a vote for No deal or May’s deal (better than the suggestion of many MP’s May’s deal or remain...) if it could be organised within weeks, but they are taking about needing 6 months. The worst effects of no deal will be well behind us by then!
  6. I love how a no deal brexit continues to be seen as a bad option relative to the path we have just taken. At the beginning of the week TM could have defined her PM by taking control and leaving without a deal. Now she has lost complete control and the consequences are what I feared most since the 24th June 2016. There are two choices, we remain as I wanted (to avoid this mess for a significant portion of my adult working life) or leave and rebuild. There is no middle ground on this. I am genuinely very disappointed with the leadership through this process, We lost 3 year where we could have been rebuilding a new relationship with the EU. How can no deal be more damaging than this mess. Remain would destroy the country now, unfortunately no deal is the least bad option, as it has been for 3 years now.
  7. The closed door cabinet meeting will be discussing this tomorrow. They can not let Labour outflank them, they need to make a decision tomorrow and take back control of the situation. No deal is now the least bad option as expected.
  8. I don’t mind if we remain as that is what I voted for but the genie is out of the bottle and the politicians trying to keep us in is far more dangerous than the impact of leaving on WTO terms. It has been the only option for me since 2016 where the latest event were written on the wall, however the politicians thought they could solve an unsolvable problem. May is not going to come out well from this she has made some very very poor decisions. Stay in or leave, it Is very simple and leave is what was voted for.
  9. Are we at no deal yet? Watching the comentry it is like the elphant in the room. Rolling numpty politicians out saying a new referendum is needed and remain must be on the ballet paper after last nights indicative votes. As a remain voter I would be furious for democracy if this is the outcome, I voted remain to avoid this mess, however It is May’s deal or WTO terms. This situation is being made to look a lot more complicated than it is by the media and politicians. The deal (EU treaty) drafted by the EU and not May is what they have offered, that won’t change, so no deal and WTO terms like May said over 100 times, then move on and rebuild a future.
  10. Yes, not a good move by Farage, much better to let the hardcore remainers have their day in the spotlight.
  11. Yes, the optimist in me says we are not this weak and poor at negotiating and the end game has always be no deal, but May has disappointed at every opertunity so far....
  12. Yes, leave on no deal and get on with things, or call the whole things off (politically very tough to do), just don’t tit around the fudged middle like we have for nearly 3 years now.....
  13. True, tough week coming up for May and politicians. My gut feeling has always been games would be played (so both sides could show they tried to achieve the imposible) and then we would exit on the 29th March with no deal. But seems the Maybot may just keep this mess rolling on for years. I want to leave this coming Friday as despite being a remain voter, now we are on this path I strongly believe it is the best path now. Or we just do as the petitions says and cancel article 50 which would be more damaging to the UK now than an no deal.
  14. Just a guess, I enjoy predicting trends, part of a previous profession and a general interest. There is a lot of awareness about this petition so rate of interest may peak tonight. If it gets to 10m the polititians will have to take serious notice.
  15. Excellent, 11 more days at that rate and it will surpass the number who voted leave. I don’t see it getting beyond 7m though.
  16. It is not a unicorn, we just leave on the 29th and go to WTO and start rebuilding the UK’s future. May’s deal is disastrous/the unicorn (I.e leaving without leaving with years more of the mess to come), we only have one sensible directions and slowly the consensus (outside of Westminster) is forming that view.
  17. Thank you for a reply, why would that be a disaster? We might negotiate a poorer deal with the EU than we have now but that is now to be expected. Maybe (quite likely) we will make up for the EU loss elsewhere. I want no deal for that reason. Surely few can be arrogant enough in this debate to expect Europe to give us preferential treatment if we are fully out of their trading block. What we don’t want is a fudged situation, the best solution are in or out. Nothing has changed in nearly 3 years.....
  18. Excellent, another person who may be able to explain why a no deal will be a disaster. I asked this knowledgable board a few days ago to explain why it would be such a disaster without using hyperbole and referencing so called economic experts (we are on HPC and know what they are worth...). Please look at the short term and long term effects of no deal. Despite a lot of strong opinions that no deal will be a disaster none of the remainers came back to me. I will say it again I voted remain and would do again if offered May’s deal or stay in. I would vote for a no deal if it offered May’s deal or leave with a no deal. If democracy is followed through we can only consider May’s deal or no deal.
  19. You are either deluded or can’t read, I have never blamed the EU for anything, they could never give us as good a deal as staying in. Any deal has to be punitive I.e not good for the UK. If they do not offer an extension by law currently we will move to no deal on the 29th March. If the EU allows an extension they are just extending the mess. I struggle with the same question as the 23 June 2016, do we leave or do we stay. I am damn near 50/50 like the rest of the country. Scrap A50 and pretend it never happened (very unlikely), so a no deal brexit on the 29th it should be.
  20. Spot on. Happy to stay, happy to leave but do not want middle ground.
  21. Why would we stop trading? Even if the EU shuns our products we will find someone globally to take them under WTO terms. The transition will be sorting out/firefighting the issue then spend the next 30 years moving forward as an independent state making decision on our boarders as we see fit. We are a net contributor to the EU, surely that gives us some negotiation power. I have only ever seen this as a leave without a deal or stay in question and thank the vast majority saw it that way also. What if the EU has been stifling the UK and outside of the EU our economy falls by 7% this year (worse than the GFC....) but next year we are flat the year after we start the recovery and add 5% from then on, meanwhile Europe soldiers on in their economic quagmire, equally as possible as the end of the UK as the remainders feel!
  22. We implement the plans in place for it, use the money saved from a no deal to soak up the mass unemployment predicted by the doommongers who can be put to work on the transition. It is very much the sticking plaster situation, rip it off and move on. I suspect the negotiations will go quicker than the ones we are about to embark on with May’s deal. This a very knowledgable forum but in the questions asked yesterday no one was able to explain the negative implications of leaving without a deal once citing unverified personal views or economic prediction was removed from their arsenal. Quite worrying some of you guys have been arguing about this for 2 years. I elected to ignore brexit until the final few months as everything else was going to noise. I would happily stay in the EU as I voted orginally, equally I would happily leave on the 29th of March and work through the short term disruption. What I don’t want is a fudged deal that locks us into a legally subservient position to the EU for years to if not decades...
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