Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Confounded

Members
  • Posts

    3,518
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by Confounded

  1. 13 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

    I agree if it was between Leave and Remain.

     

    I'm suspecting some kind of bad "deal" might get through only marginally less worse that May's 3 times already rejected one, just so they can avoid the next EU election. What's your view?

    IDS was encouraging on his view that the backstop is not workable and the EU know it. Apparently it was chucked in by the German drafters as a legacy from a Turkish proposal. Where there is a will there is a way, I keep telling the defeatist remainers on here, we may just be about to see what that means when minds are focused and the bravado dropped.  

    The conservatives have a month in my view to sort a suitable way forward out or they are toast. We will get an enhanced deal or no deal in my view.

  2. 45 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

    If a majority of people today want to stay in the EU, it would be a failure of democracy not to listen to them.

    I believe a majority would vote to stay in the EU if offered May’s deal or Remain. However I also believe if the people knew the politicians would enact the decision swiftly a greater majorly would vote for leave than the first referendum if it was the original choice of leave or remain was offered again. 

    Watch the video I posted, there is not going to be a need for a “people’s vote” it will be resolved in the next month. 

  3. 2 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

    Except 3) doesn't reflect reality either.  We're constrained by the Good Friday Agreement and the structure of our economy and society, so even if we get full legal autonomy, it won't be able to take us very far.

    That is the spirit, such an optimistic perspective. Where there is a will there is a way, maybe some of those constraints will have to change to achieve the greater good. 

    You never answered my earlier question if you got anything wrong regarding the GFC? Maybe you views on Brexit may not be as on the mark as you posting confidence indicates. 

  4. 9 hours ago, pig said:

    IMHO, the pair of you are being almost strangely ridiculous.

    Confounded is banging on about the apparent popularity of no deal despite the fact that the evidence he cites clearly show it is unpopular.

    He does a pre-referendum 'The BBC is against us !!!' thing with a ropey video. Hilariously the 2nd clip in has a Leaver spouting similarly unfounded cr4p to the consternation of the rest of the panel.  Who knows, maybe people go on telly for youtube clips rather than to debate with any integrity ?

    The evidence cited by the pair of you shows that there is a majority of the population against  Mays deal and no deal, the two Tory government options on the table (kind of! ), which kind of p1sses all over Leaves obsession with Immigration and 'trade deals' (and Confoundeds 'semantic' spin).

    You on the other hand totted up the leave percentages and conclude a majority want to Leave - which would be OK except that Leavers are INSISTING that staying in the single market and customs union is definitely  NOT LEAVING and never was ever honest guvner.

    However it gets worse because the front page of the source you cite shows that  the poll of polls says 54% Remain vs 46% Leave:

    EURef2 Poll of Polls https://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/euref2-poll-of-polls/

    Your source by the way.

    Statistics are not that hard to interpret!

    24% No Deal

    12% Leave with May’s deal (actually another EU treaty drafted by the German’s)

    14% Leave the EU but remain in the customs union. 

    Please show me my error in interpreting leaving with no deal as the massive majority of the leave options, which if we honour the referendum should be implemented. 

  5. 6 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

    Going back to 2007.  I certainly wasn't arguing about Brexit then.

    Going back to 2006 for me, did any of the things you argued strongly about in 2007 not pan out as you thought?

    HPC has been a fantastic education for me. It literally changed my life and for the better, however not everything panned out as I expected. That is why I am pretty optimistic we will find a good solution for the UK and our EU friends.

  6. 23 minutes ago, pig said:

    Riiiight Okay.

    So 60% AGAINST no deal vs. 24% FOR it. 17% don't know.

    Even if you pretend Remainers don't exist its 27% AGAINST no deal vs 24% FOR no deal.

    I've watched your video from the 'Core'.' and perused their twitter site.

    What the feck are you on ? 

    Don’t take things too seriously regarding that video, I have no idea who made it and certainly did not bother finding out. 2 of the clips I saw live and just thought is was a reasonable illustration of the what I see on a regular basis. 

    I am afraid it is only worth considering the leave options as that is what we are doing! 

  7. 8 minutes ago, pig said:

    OK so from this graph:

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-favour-leaving-the-eu-with-no-deal-leaving-the-eu-with-theresa-mays-deal-leaving-the-eu-but-remaining-in-the-single-market-customs-union-or-remaining-in-the-eu-revoking-article-50/

    I used the combination option and  got 60% against no deal (from Mays deal to Remain),  24% for no deal, and 17% don't know.

    Presumably this is not the graph you are talking about ? Because from that last bolded caveat I'm getting suspicious that it is...

    Absolutely that is the graph! No deal is a massive majority for the leave option. I am staggered it is so high given No deal is just not debated publicly. It is like the elephant in the room when ever the BBC discuss the next options as each ridiculous move by the failed parliament unfolds. I get a feeling that is will only grow as more people take the time to research it as an option having got a sense parliament has not done its job for them.  

  8. 1 minute ago, thecrashingisles said:

    I'm doing everything I can to frustrate the implementation of Brexit, and I'm neither in the parliament or the media.  I'm just a citizen living in a democratic society.

    Absolutely, and you have 21,908 posts to prove it. You make your case very clear but I am afraid frustrating an already made democratic decision by the people in parliament will lead to far greater issues going forward. The vast majority of the public remain or leavers just want this to be resolved and No deal is the simplest route to achieve this. Yes we could revoke article 50 but the long term damage will dwarf any no deal short term bumps.

    Did you like that clip where the BBC interviewer started to make a very good case for leaving without realising it..... That is the problem when you don’t understand the big picture and just spouting brainwashed rubbish In an effort to stop the person you have in front of you to interview from talking....

  9. 5 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

    This is stupidity.  You're not basing your views on your own judgment but on who it will offend.

    No, it is my judgement on a pervasive bias on MSM and the air of superiority the remainers exude. They just will not discuss what the country voted for and still wants, that graph is backed up by other polls. Clips here show the standard of debate on the BBC and elsewhere. Second clip in is probably the best example. The bias BBC London centric remainers were spitting/frothing at the mouth that the country consensus is to leave without a deal rather than the current fudge. 

     

     

     

     

     

  10. 1 hour ago, GrizzlyDave said:

    Here’s an interesting graph.... What should we do according to these results?

    Do you favour leaving the EU with no deal, leaving the EU with Theresa May’s Deal, leaving the EU but remaining in the Single Market/Customs Union, or remaining in the EU / revoking Article 50?

    BA90FA7F-5701-42FA-9217-60AE1D2393DE.thumb.jpeg.70bf227061e8c203fc86cbf8f5eb80dd.jpeg

    Field work dates: 4 April 2019 - 8 April 2019 https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-favour-leaving-the-eu-with-no-deal-leaving-the-eu-with-theresa-mays-deal-leaving-the-eu-but-remaining-in-the-single-market-customs-union-or-remaining-in-the-eu-revoking-article-50/

    Yes what many people have been saying but refuted by the bias media. No deal is the preferred method of leaving, we should already have left 3 years ago. Quite astonishing No deal got such a high proportion given not one MSM comentatator has seriously discussed it without the hyperbole of the sort seen on here often. 

     

     

     

     

  11. 28 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

    If you look at the bigger picture, 2015/16 was the worst time to hold a referendum because of the temporary factors like the migration crisis and hangover from the financial crisis.  If he'd waited until 2017 he'd have had a better chance of winning.

    Wonderful, another list of reasons why the stupid people voted leave, nothing to do with 40 years of experience in the EU, a clue as to why the older generations voted leave....

    The arrogance of the pious remain nerds is what made me turn very rapidly from remain to leave. 

  12. 6 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

     

    If you don’t have the stamina for the full video here’s the best bit:

     

     

    Very interesting, thanks for posting. Seems the same tactics were used then to scare people into the EU as are being no now to keep us in. 

    If as the Ted Heath speach eluded to the political union was to prevent France and Germany every fighting again, I would say we are safe from that now... Job done move on.

  13. 37 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

    The best deal we can get, and one that protects our economy as it's currently structured, is the single market and customs union.  If you think we're not going to self-harm and will do it in an economically rational way, that's what we'd do, and wouldn't even consider No Deal.

    You are not facing up to the fact the country voted for a change to the status quo. We will need to restructure the economy and build from the ground up, otherwise this whole endevour will not be worth the disruption caused already. It is an opertunity for a new direction but no doubt your view of the opertunities freedom from the EU presents will be decidedly pessimistic.

  14. 15 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

    Forget about loaded words like disaster/success, and just think about the logic of the relationship we will want.  We're not going to want trade barriers and dis-alignment, and in the case of Northern Ireland, we can't even contemplate that.  Therefore given that the EU is the dominant economic power in Europe, it can only lead to us following their rules, unless we try to cut off our nose to spite our face.

    That is fine, leave on WTO terms, negotiate the best we can with the EU, move on.

    I totally agree we will have to make sensible considered judgements. As you suggest in your post above it seems a lot of the remainers argue we are going to deliberatly self harm. We will get the best deal we can with the EU. It is very likely will be inferior to someone staying in the EU, this is the path we are on let’s make the best of it. 

  15. 1 hour ago, thecrashingisles said:

    So the alternative to EU membership is 10 years of parroting vacuous slogans like "where there's a will there's a way", and you say you're the one with a positive vision?

    No need for the phase to be repeated if we leave and actually start the process in earnest. This whole process smacks of last minute Charlie from both sides, which again is the reason I thought we should leave on WTO terms as soon a practically possible back in 2016. 

    Believe me there will be a will from BOTH sides to resolve this and the way forward will be found. If you miserable doomsayers are correct then future generations can work our way back into the EU, I just don’t know how any individual can be so clear this is going to be a disaster. Unless you listen to the general excepti Nelly biased media consensus, where were they in 2007 warning people of a proper disaster. There were strong signals in late 2006 that trouble was ahead with two Bear Stearns funds collapsing September 2006.

    As posted yesterday this will be small bump compared to 2008. I sold my house and was fully in cash by spring 2007 much to the dismay of friend and family. So it is not like I am a blinkered optimist, I just think your pessimism is way off the mark. 

  16. 7 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

    What in concrete terms is it that you want as a future relationship?  I think you just struggle to deal in realities.

    A good relationship with the UK outside of the EU, it is really quite simple. We will work out this terms over the next decade that suit both our interests, where there is a will there is a way......

    The other option that I voted for is to remain inside the EU In it’s entirety, somthing that we can not do, so you seem to be the one struggling with reality. 

  17. 1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

    The way is WTO rules, anything else will take many years to negotiate from a position of weakness no country have ever been daft enough to put itself in. 

    There you go again, defeatist remainer. We have significant strengths if only we would apply them by leaving on WTO. We have years of negotiations ahead of us anyway, we should have started this route 3 years ago....

  18. 4 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

    How we would get on is as follows:

    - We'd face major problems

    - The EU will say they won't negotiate a deal until we agree to the money, backstop and citizens rights from the WA

    - We'll agree to the terms (that the government had already agreed anyway)

    Where there's a will there's a way, eh?

    Yep, look at the stance the EU have made regarding the extension, they appeared they were going to be very strict but when we called their bluff they realised they have more to loose from this situation than us they back tracked.  Macron openly wants to teach those who voted leave a lesson, why not just call time on the mess and let us leave! You are utterly convinced we would have to come grovelling back to the masters, it would be perfect for Macron.....

    This position of strength the UK has is something I would like to have see the negotiators use years ago, We want to be partners and friends with the EU, we just need to shrug this negative defeatism the plagues the remainers. 

  19. 2 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

    Looks like "we" couldn't even make the engine on the Israeli moon lander work. They chose the wrong country to sub-contract that work to.

    This country is past it's sell by date.

    Was it the engine or was it the electronics or the fuel line or somthing else. Space craft a quite a complicated beast.....

    So if we are past our best what should we do about it, keep the status quo that I voted for or strike out and create a nimble economy taking advantage of the spectacular technological changes atm. Let’s or just moan on BB rather than push forward for a better future. Where there is a will there is a way. 

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.