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Dingleberry

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Everything posted by Dingleberry

  1. Sky News now reporting GAME is to go into administration.
  2. Use here is the building's legal class of use, not the use to which a company might put it. A building classed as a dwellinghouse is residential no matter who buys it or why.
  3. I imagine that's simply a reference to the building's class of use, as defined by planning law. The class of use isn't affected by what you do with the building; a dwellinghouse is still legally a dwellinghouse, even if it is let out as part of a business. http://www.planningportal.gov.uk/permission/commonprojects/changeofuse/ Technically - and this is a stretch - I suppose corporations could buy up suitable business class property and convert it for residential use (assuming they got planning permission) but this would be a costly and inconvenient process, and given that it would probably take more than a year, the corporations would still be liable for the proposed annual tax that comes in in 2013 anyway.
  4. 'The property ladder is a simple concept. You pay your mortgage and year by year you go up the ladder, then after 25 years you reach the top and own the house.' *facepalm*
  5. 'Lets spell out very clearly why the myth of homeownership became religion in the United States. Its because corporations didn’t want their employees to have many job choices. So they encouraged them to own homes. So they can’t move away and get new jobs. Job salaries is a function of supply and demand. If you can’t move, then your supply of jobs is low. You can’t argue the reverse, since new adults are always competing with you.' Huh. Not seen it put quite that way before.
  6. This was the New Statesman's cover story last week. It's now gone online. Probably not especially new to anyone here, but still good to see this stuff out there, I think. 'The myth spun about Britain is that land is scarce. It is not – landowners are paid to keep it off the market.'
  7. Radio 4 discussion about HB changes featuring Christine Whitehead http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_9141000/9141514.stm Another Radio 4 discussion on the same topic, featuring Labour's Siobhain McDonagh, Conservative Bob Blackman and Liberal Democrat MP Andrew George http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00vkl40
  8. Tangentially relevant: looks like the Child Benefit cut is unenforceable. http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2010/10/28/child-benefit-cut-unenforceable-treasury-in-a-flap/
  9. BTL alone cannot keep the market from dropping. In addition, the spectre of margin calls makes BTL a very bad idea in a falling market.
  10. Autumn winds blow cold Empty EA, heating on, Still they're shivering Three point six per cent? oh em eff eff eff eff gee Bounce no more, dead cat
  11. From the look if it, it's simply a matter of Santander being unwilling to lend the asking price, because their own valuation doesn't match it. I'm not sure how this equates to her wanting to pay more than she has to. It's more that she wants to get a mortgage that will cover the actual asking price of the house. The builder isn't obliged to accept Santander's valuation as somehow definitive. That defines what they are willing to lend her, not what the builder must accept for the property. Naturally, us lot would probably urge her to haggle the price down based on the Santander valuation, but let's not call her an idiot.
  12. By saying 'just trying to buy a family home' you imply that what you are doing is normal, sensible, what everyone else does. But 'everyone else is doing it' is exactly what people say while they're busily inflating a bubble of any kind, whether it's tulips, beanie babies or house prices. So, rather than making out that what you are trying to do is normal and therefore right, why not explain why it's the right thing for you personally, right now, in the current economic climate?
  13. Pardon me, but from what you say here, you appear to be reading the graph incorrectly. The part you have apparently taken for reliable prediction, i.e. the dotted line with squares on it, is not Spline's prediciton at all. It is, as Spline explains, 'the house price trajectory implied by the currrent buy & sell prices from financial spreadbetting (Cantor Spreadfair, house price spreadbetting) and residential property derivatives trading (Tradition, Future HPI).' So that curve may be what some people are betting on, but it's not the prediction you apparently think it is. Again, sorry if I've misread you here. The predictions Spline makes using an extended Kalman filter only envision the period six months from now. Here's the actual prediction part: Note how the blue line has not yet been filled in as far as the Kalman line has. This is because the Kalman line is the prediction. As you can see, the predicted direction for YoY HPI is downwards. Still, it's only a short term prediction, and a lot can happen in six months.
  14. 'How many drops is this for you, Lieutenant?' 'Thirty-eight... simulated.'
  15. Here's the part that intrigues me. Given that Housing Benefit goes down as earned income goes up, it's going to be impossible for people to make up the increased shortfall between income and rent simply by earning more. There is a fixed weekly amount - 'what the Government says you need to live on' - involved in the calculations, and that's all you get to keep. The Government have effectively dug the poverty trap deeper than before. The only way this would count as an 'incentive to work' is if it were possible for people to get jobs that suddenly provided enough income to cover their rent completely and still left enough to live on. But, so far as I can tell, that's simply an impossible leap for the majority of working claimants.
  16. I suppose their logic here is that they can always delay implementing that part of the Budget if CPI isn't where they'd like it to be. They've got until 2013, after all. Nor do I. That's why I'm harrassing the Treasury to try to find out what on earth they're actually planning.
  17. I still keep coming back to those projected savings - £300 million in the first year, £390 million in the second.
  18. Have now spoken to the Valuation Office. They don't know any more than anyone else does, and are waiting to see the actual legislation before they can comment. Time to chase the Treasury again!
  19. Given that they expect to save a wodge of money by doing this, what it seems they're actually doing is freezing LHA at the 2013 level and uprating it by CPI thereafter, instead of the current system which tracks actual rents and thus takes rent inflation into account. (Still waiting for confirmation from an official source. Nobody knows.)
  20. It's not a matter of refusal. They simply won't have any choice. That does sound like a likely outcome, yes. B&B is the new BTL! You read it here first! The thing is, that simply isn't how LHA works. LHA is an existing and established component of Housing Benefit determination. Making changes to LHA affects all claims; that's how the system is currently set up.
  21. Don't worry too much. They expect to save 300 million pounds from this measure in its first year. That means they expect to pay out a staggering amount LESS than they had been paying in Housing Benefit - and that's on top of, and separate from, the savings effected from the shift to the 30th percentile. I'm currently on the phone to several different people chasing confirmation of this, but it looks very much like LHA will actually be frozen in 2013 and modified by CPI thenceforth, instead of being based on canvassed local rents. (And what would happen to the people whose job it is to do that canvassing?)
  22. As of April 2013, if you're on JSA for a year, your Housing Benefit is cut to 90% of what it would have been. Page 48 of the Budget, point 2.54.
  23. That's not the case. Housing Benefit claims are reviewed on a yearly basis and take changes in the local LHA into account.
  24. Right, meaning rent inflation cannot be getting factored in any more, meaning the old LHA system must be set to be scrapped. It still seems like a ludicrous divergence - the difference between rent inflation and CPI resulting in a saving of 300 million across the course of one year? The drop to the 30th percentile is only expected to save £365 million in its first full year. What this effectively does is to place LHA completely outside the realm of human manipulation - by landlords at any rate.
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