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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by Lander

  1. Your first paragraph is nonsense because every man and his dog has been into property for the last ten years, people who normally lived in council houses became BTL landlords, this is the first and last time we will see such participation in our lifetimes. If that level of participation can`t keep the market afloat, nothing can. There is a transfer of wealth all right, but it is from the leveraged to the debt free. If living standards decline no one want`s to rent your house, and no one want`s to buy your house, therefore the house owner or "owner" just gets poorer.

    Second paragraph - how do you know this?

    Third paragraph, there are no positives to HPI anymore, I agree, because of this there is no more credit for HPI, game over in other words, everything has changed. The "rigged" game recently lost around 20%, and yes no one really wins in a casino which is now obvious to all?

    Well said, agree entirely.

  2. My Gess is a 10% drop in house prices this time next year, thats if things slowly unwind , if things go belly up like i think 35% in 2 years. Like I say my gess is 10% drop in one year as the money from government drys up. If we get high intrest, defaults, high unempoyment it will crush the Australian property prices over 2 years.

    So now Bardon you and I will see just who becomes the winner out of our investment plans as yours are the opposite of mine.

    luck will not help you or me just our interpertation of current happenings and our gess for out comes.

    I'll stick my neck out and predict a 5% fall for Oz house prices by the end of this year, 10% for 2011 and then a further fall of up to 20% the year after. The coming option ARM and commercial real estate meltdown that will ravage the US later this year will create another global credit famine which will make mortgages even more scare and expensive to obtain and service. Credit crunch 2 will be the trigger for the Oz crash and 2nd leg down here also IMO

  3. about 40 grand to adult hood, and that is only an average.

    given that these kids are essential to our own economic well being (whether they be yours or someone else's) I'd say the dinkies and sinkies are getting a super deal economically.

    Was that back in 1989? I've just done some googling and the average cost to raise a child is around £200k


  4. Its deeply unpleasant now, getting fook all return on my savings, houses being kept artificially high using my taxes and listening to smug barstewards who cant actually afford the house they are living in crowing about the fact.

    It will be unpleasant for all, but far more unplesant for those who have overstretched themselves and an blissfully unaware of whats to come.

    Forwarned and all that.

    I would rather live like a church mouse for a few years and see these types of people get pounded back down their rat holes from where they came

  5. My holiday in California is almost over. It is raining like mad in the desert here so I am feeling better prepared for the shock of returning to winter in the UK.

    Over the last three weeks, I have had the chance to talk to quite a few people here about the housing market.

    The most consistent theme is that there are people who have wanted to buy homes here for the last three to five years. They are finally starting to see prices that are reaching levels that make sense to them relative to their incomes or net worth. This is particulary noticeable for Canadians who have a large currency advantage relative to a few years ago.

    Inventories are way down, houses are selling and people are moving in. As always, location matters and there are areas that will probably never recover.

    House prices are down by about 40% for non-repos and about 50% for repos.

    The California experience doesn't seem to match the UK experience. This has puzzled me for a couple of years but I am finally starting to understand why :

    - The buyers that I am talking to here are making more discretionary housing purchases than UK buyers. Buyers here tend to be retirees or second home buyers. Their withdrawl from the market around the peak was more influential here than in the UK.

    - The California buyers tend to be older and have experienced more ups and downs than younger buyers. They also seem to be cash buyers who are very disciplined about price.

    - I don't buy the land argument. Prices in desirable bits of California where they aren't making any more land have fallen nearly as hard as the undesirable bits.

    - People in the US tend to move around more than people in the UK. This means that there is mroe natural supply and demand. The stranglehold that the mid to late boomers have in the UK is less prevalent here.

    - The impact of the Euro vs Sterling is much larger than the impact of the Canadian versus US Dollars. Some very high end properties here are being advertised in Euros as well.

    As always, I expect markets that have faced up to their problems and adjusted prices to fare better than those that don't. While there are tracts in California that might end up being bulldozed and some horrific default numbers here, I expect that stabilization here for the top 80% of properties will happen mre quickly than it will for the top 80% of properties in the UK.

    You are aware that there are millions of option ARM loans due to reset this year?

  6. First have a read of http://order-order.com/

    Item, Fabians Forget the History of their Evil Cause

    Some of it reads,

    Then go to the Fabians web site, and see who are members. Most, if not all the Labour party.

    Surprised to see Vince Cable's name there.

    These people are just totally dangerous. They want to end home ownership and anything upwardly mobile.

    Why isn't more information broadcast to the sheeple, to let them know what's in government?

    They even had the cheek to hold their Christmas party on the Terrace at Westminster, the very place democracy is supposed to be exercised.

    I'm at a loss to know why Great Britain is being dismantled, and nothing is being done to protect us.

    They want everyone living by themselves in little boxes so we can't breed

  7. A few thoughts:

    1. We are still outsourcing UK IT jobs to India whilst any hope of a strong recovery in IT work from Silicon Valley is simply not happening. Most Tech companies have driven up their share price by cutting staff.


    Oracle's share prices and profits seem suspiciously robust considering the carnage that is going in the IT sector and the wider economy. Demand must be shrinking for data management now. I wonder if they have been doing the same?

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