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Posts posted by Lander

  1. My Gut feeling says that the tsunami of financial poisons will out within the first 6-9 months of the new Conservative Government.

    Tory will have 4 years to tear it down and put it back together- however, the Labour mantra even now remains "If it ain't broke don't fix it."

    I feel slightly more comfortable in my knowledge that labour will do little to change things leading up to the G.E. than I do with what is going to happen afterwards. Now is that a good thing- or a bad thing...?

    I'm hearing so many anecdotals now of an economy just grinding to a halt- really really g-r-i-n-d-i-n-g d-o-w-n to a full stop.

    Ditto, a client of mine who fabricates giant flared pipes and other stuff for the oil and gas industry told me that contracts have pretty much dried up. I would have thought they'd have been ok :huh:

    The main driver behind a HPC IMO will be a collapse in demand which is essentially what we will be seeing in slow motion over the next year as job losses continue to soar. Unemployment levels among 18-25 year olds have reached depression levels and it's only going to get worse. Thats a huge portion of FTBers out of the game. There's also going to be a significant number of speculators and amateur LLs drop out when the public sector implodes next year and they lose their jobs.

  2. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1226773/Nearly-7-000-workers-face-axe-Black-Tuesday.html

    Nearly 7,000 workers face the axe after Black TuesdayBy Karl West

    Last updated at 11:37 PM on 10th November 2009

    Comments (0) Add to My Stories It was another black day for British jobs, with the livelihoods of more than 6,600 workers under threat as the economic slowdown takes its toll.

    Drugs giant Pfizer, food producer Northern Foods, carmaker Honda, technology firm Ericsson and Lloyds Banking Group all revealed plans to slash their workforce to cut costs.

    Lloyds revealed it is cutting a further 5,000 staff from its merged HBOS and Lloyds TSB operations by the end of 2010.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1226773/Nearly-7-000-workers-face-axe-Black-Tuesday.html#ixzz0WVRbpGBz

    House prices will continue to soar on this news. Better buy now before we're priced out forever!

  3. This is excellent news, job loses are necessary to keep house prices rising and the current house price boom needs to be maintained. These 700 job loses added to the 5000 loses announced by Lloyds will ensure house prices get back above 2007 levels as soon as possible.

    And according to the RICS survey; 'This is the highest net balance since December 2006, when prices were rising at a rate of 10.5% annually on the Nationwide index and the economy was still in the grip of the property boom.' With previous job loses at BP and Shell the underlying unemployment levels are strong and rising. This will continue to fuel house price recovery.

    Indeed, the imminent collapse in pent up demand for housing can only mean rampant HPI for the foreseeable future.

  4. I read about the great depression of the US where people who previously had white collar jobs are doing whatever they can... But asking around looking for intel on my XT600 I was stunned at the amount of unemployment in the area nearby which is seemingly leafy suburb and seemingly affluent (where houses traded for over 250K and this is Manchester mind).

    Myself an accountant reduced to kitchen portering

    My biker mate formerly BMW bike man, was a solicitor (who is 53) is doing warehouse work.

    Marc formerly a electrical engineer for the national grid, redundant.

    My university professor reduced to temp work.

    The woman 3 doors down who used to work as an architect is now stacking shelves in Asda.

    Kai an old mate who used to work as a manager at 02 is now a pizza delivery driver.

    Jim who used to work on the oil rigs I spotted at a franchise petrol station as a cashier.

    Ross who used to run a mechanics shop is now a cleaner , Phil his employee is now on JSA.

    Julie who worked for a printing company does ironing.

    Trevor my mate who was stabbed several times in bolton , was once an insurance adjuster or something for commercial vehicles now works in Sayers selling pasties.

    My god its a massacre out there........ and the tax take must be being massacred as everybody above (bar me and Ross) used to be higher rate tax payers and everybody above is pottering about on NMW.

    This recession will be screaming depression by the end of the first quarter next year. Seems odd why some astute bears on here have recently turned bull :unsure:

  5. And who picked to define a depression in that way?

    It wasn't until the 60's there was a clear definition of what a recession was than it's creation was politically motivated to obfuscate economic reality.

    Unemployment levels reached around 25% in the 30's depression. It's actually worse than that this time for people aged 16-25


  6. the problem is , people are starting to buy again, and doing everything they can to get houses again,

    seriously i kow of 3 people that said they would hold out for the crash, and have now said, it aint going to happen, or have read on here and said not waiting another couple of years,

    as long as the government is doing all it can to stop it , it will not happen, and there is no way they will want anything other than rises until the next election,

    then who is in next will not want it, so it is going to be like this for a couple/few more years yet,

    people seem to get the money from somewhere.

    People need JOBS to buy houses

    Anyone who takes out a mortgage for more than 3x salary in this climate must have lemming in their dna

  7. the problem is , people are starting to buy again, and doing everything they can to get houses again,

    seriously i kow of 3 people that said they would hold out for the crash, and have now said, it aint going to happen, or have read on here and said not waiting another couple of years,

    as long as the government is doing all it can to stop it , it will not happen, and there is no way they will want anything other than rises until the next election,

    then who is in next will not want it, so it is going to be like this for a couple/few more years yet,

    people seem to get the money from somewhere.

  8. Interesting. That's probably a bit less than half of what it would rent for here.

    In a way it's academic. I'm not point scoring. You can afford to rent it. But you can't afford to buy it. (Maybe you can, I'm trying to talk in terms of 'typical' or 'average'.)

    It would seem that, in your area, houses are still over priced in relationship to the rents they realise. In my area they aren't.

    We could afford to buy it, however the mortgage repayments would be more then the rent we are paying-which means a drop in living standards. I simply refuse to buy at the current over inflated levels. We have been renting this same property at the same rates for 5 years which has allowed us to accumulate some yellow shiny stuff and put some cash away for a deposit. There is a GLUT of rental properties out there so it's not too hard to find a good property to rent at reasonable rates.

    The recovery we are seeing now is just a temporary artificial blip which has been propped up with QE funny money. In addition there's going to be many many more job losses to come (think public sector and retail) and more carnage to come in the credit markets when the prime and real estate mortgage defaults start to skyrocket next year. This will result in another credit famine and make it even more difficult and expensive for people to qualify for mortgages...people that are still fortunate enough to be in work that is.

  9. Come on. Be a bit realistic. If it drops to 80k, its 'true' value, the whole economy is screwed.

    Which is why it won't happen. 6 years of waiting ... and it still hasn't happened.

    I'm not one of the 'mad' people. There is nothing I would like to see more than that house dropping to its true value. However, I'm not mad enough to think it will ever actually happen.

    It can't happen. The economy will be destroyed if it does. So, it won't. Haven't you noticed. The housing market was falling, now it's stopped. They have stopped it by making it not worthwhile to save.

    What do you pay £400 rent for? I mean, what do you get for your £400?

    I pay £1150. I get a large (pretty scruffy to be honest) 4 bed, 2 bath house, double detached garage on a nice estate. So £13800 a year. The house is probably worth (realistically) 450k. If you have 450k in the bank at the moment you're getting about £13500 interest.

    Surely you can see what has happened. Anyone with capital might as well buy property now. A year or two ago, your 450k might have got you 5% - £22500 a year. Which meant the house was overvalued by about 40% compared to what you could earn in interest from the bank. Now, it isn't.

    This is the no-brainer bit for anyone with some capital.

    The only hope is interest rates going up. Soon and sharply.

    Otherwise it's 'rent all your life' for young people. And, in case you still don't get where I am coming from, I've got two children, one grown up, one nearly grown up, and I don't want to see them renting all their lives. But, as I say, we've been waiting 6 years and, so far, not much has changed.

    Quite a lot, I'm renting a new build semi located in a pleasant cul-de-sac with sizable front and rear gardens and off the road parking for 3 cars in a decent town in Derbyshire. I am 10 mins drive from the peak district --all for £420 pcm, which is nice :)

  10. One is a large high tech sheet metalwork company- starting to asset strip to keep itself alive-- family business- 8 employees.

    one is a specialised car parts company that deals with very rich people by default. family business- 3 employees

    One is a market leading high turnover retail and mail order outlet for radio control cars and aircraft.- down from 2.5K per day three weeks ago to 60 quid by lunchtime today. Family business- 4 employees.

    Can you pm me a link to their site, I spend silly amounts on rc stuff, might aswell put some business their way

  11. Good news BEARS repeating.

    Even the ONS are rubbing salt into the bull's wound:


    Double-dip’ recession remains risk, says ONS

    By Daniel "Dan" Pimlott, Economics Reporter

    The UK risks a “double-dip” recession because the forces now sustaining the recovery are likely to prove fragile, according to an analysis by the country’s official statistics body.

    In its monthly survey of the economic landscape, the Office of National Statistics said that, despite signs the UK was on a path back to growth, prospects were muted as consumers, business and government all struggled to pay down debts, unemployment rose and banks resisted lending.

    “Even if the UK economy manages to escape from recession in a technical sense, the recovery may be fragile and the economy is in danger of a double-dip recession should it be hit by a further shock or loss of confidence,” it said.

    The verdict is unusually direct for the ONS, which normally....

    What recovery? All we've done is paper over the cracks with QE funny money and created an artificial blip


    The next leg down in house prices is really going to be a shocker for some

  12. Tum-te-tum.

    Those that think Australia = UK: note that current average price in Sydney is lower than it was in 2004.


    House prices set to jump: report


    October 14, 2009 - 1:28PM

    House prices may surge about 20 per cent or more in some of Australia's largest cities over the next three years, driven higher by on-going shortages.

    Adelaide - previously considered among the more affordable cities - may lead the advances, with prices likely to be 23 per cent higher by June 2012 from a base of June 2009, according to the QBE LMI Housing Outlook.

    Sydney prices may jump 21 per cent in that period, while Melbourne prices may be 19 per cent higher, the report said.

    The increases are likely even with the expected rebound in interest rates as the economy recovers. The Reserve Bank last week lifted official interest rates from near half-century lows to 3.25 per cent and signalled more rate rises to come.

    ''While interest rates are forecast to rise over 2010-2012, the outlook for the Australian housing market looks positive,'' said QBE LMI chief Ian Graham.

    ''The current low interest rates will be the main driver for house price increases, which are expected to accelerate through to 2012, particularly in those markets with positive affordability and continuing undersupply of housing.''

    Perth, Canberra lag

    The report, prepared by real estate industry research group BIS Shrapnel, predicts Perth and Canberra, which have both seen huge rises in home values, will grow only 12 per cent in that time.

    Brisbane can expect a 15 per cent rise, as can those living in Hobart, while Darwin prices may rise 17 per cent.

    ''Price growth in Perth is forecast to be influenced by a decline in investment in the resource sector after the record levels of recent years,'' said Mr Graham. ''Softer residential demand is also envisaged in Canberra due to weaker employment growth.''

    Prices in the Australian housing market have been driven up by a chronic shortage of homes, estimated be about 56,600 in 2009.

    The projected price increases will add to a huge run-up over the past decade.

    Based on calculations from data contained in the report, provided by the Real Estate Institute of Australia and BIS Shrapnel, the median house price in Sydney increased by 101 per cent from June 1998 to June 2008.

    Over the same 10-year period the median house price in Melbourne more than doubled, rising 116 per cent.

    Brisbane values soared 202 per cent while Adelaide's increased 208 per cent during the same 10-year stretch. Perth's rose 211 per cent and Hobart's soared 203 per cent. The median house prices of Canberra increased 191 per cent, while in Darwin they increased 135 per cent.

    In 2008, home prices eased about 3 per cent nationwide, bucking the trend of price drops of nearly 20 per cent in the US, UK, Ireland and Spain.

    A bubble?

    The shortages have been driven by a variety of factors including population growth, tax advantages favouring home ownership and real estate investment, and price speculation by home buyers and investors. Also, bottlenecks in the approval process for home building have been blamed.

    Other factors driving prices include the First Home Owners Buyer's grant which was reduced this month, but won't be phased out until the end of the year.

    Rising home prices, along with the economy's strength has prompted the Reserve Bank to warn of the risk of a housing bubble forming.

    Runaway home price rises ''pose elevated risks of problems of over-leverage and asset price deflation down the track,'' RBA governor Glenn Stevens said in July.

    Housing affordability

    The current household debt to income ratio is around 155 per cent, up from about 130 per cent at the time of the last RBA rate rising cycle in 2003, Westpac said today, in releasing the September consumer confidence number.

    Rising home prices have been a contributor to household debt, analysts say.

    According to Morgan Stanley's Gerard Minack, the ratio of average house prices to average income in Australia is now just under 5 compared with around 3.5 times at the top of the US housing cycle.

    Bis Schrapnel senior project manager Angie Zigomanis said that even if a housing price bubble popped, a correction would not necessarily mean huge price falls.

    The median Sydney home price in 2009 is $544,000, lower than the 2004's median house price of $552,000.

    ''Corrections are not like share market corrections, where people sell off all their shares,'' he said.

    ''People just sit in the property and wait for things to improve. You don't have this turnover, aside from people who are forced to sell.''

    Mr Zigomanis said anything that had an impact on Australia's overall economy could affect home prices.

    House prices can only go up in a global depression


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