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enrieb

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Posts posted by enrieb

  1. Hi All

    I moved to Hale from Bristol 18 months ago and am sitting on a goldmine at the moment (+33%)..

    Is their anybody on the forum who does not believe that the 'Wurzle' isnt an estate agent with nothing better to do on a friday afternoon.

    It's a bit of a joke for anybody who claims to have lived in Manchester for only 18 months to be giving us the benifit of his knowledge about the area. I have lived here all my life, I lived through the last housing boom, I waited for the last boom to crash and bottom out before I purchased a house in 1996. I have lived here for over thirty years, I know the areas around Manchester and Stockport, I also have freinds and family who have lived in these areas for years. So I dont take kindly to some EA claiming to be from Bristol attempting to fill people heads full of magic.

  2. The World Spot Price - Asia

    GOLD 05/10/2007 15:24 666.40

    Its going up.

    "Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast; for it is the number of a man; and his number is 666." Book of Revelation Chapter 13 Verse 18 .... or 'The Omen' from the Imdb

  3. I used to work at a company that used rust proof paper to pack turbo chargers, it was like brown paper that seemed to have some oil content. Here are some links.

    http://www.uline.com/Browse_Listing_5250.a...Anti-Rust+Paper

    http://www.altavista.com/web/results?itag=...kgs=1&kls=0

    As for what to do with them Don't sell them, if the more extreem predicitions about hyperinflation on the forum do come to fruition then they could be worth a small fortune.

  4. Anything can become an investment in a speculative bubble, I read about tulip mania in this article on the wiki a few weeks ago.

    In 1623, a single bulb of a famous tulip variety could cost as much as a thousand Dutch florins (the average yearly income at the time was 150 florins). Tulips were also exchanged for land, valuable livestock, and houses. Allegedly, a good trader could earn six thousand florins a month.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

  5. So we have had a huge increase in the money supply throught the credit boom in the housing market, and now they are going to increase the money supply even more through public spending. Inflation, Inflation, Inflation.

    I really do fear for how much Gorden Brown is goind to expand the money supply, though I expect most of the general public don't undertand the long term problems that will be caused by loose monetary policies. I expect that vast increases in public spending will be extreemly popular to most voters.

  6. I think all this talk about rates going up by half a percent or more is just an attempt to mislead people into thinking that the govenment are going to take strong measures to deal with the threat of inflation, so that when they whimp out as usual with only a quarter percent baby-step rise the markets and media can then act like this is a good news.

  7. The presenter in the first video always comes across as a complete ****, his mannerisms are always disrespectful, constant strawman attacks of peters shiffs position, you would have to be incredibly dumb not to see the bias in his economic interpretation.

    And as for the WWF wrestler in the second video, he was just embarasing, he really was shown up when they were asking him why he is only buying land to develop in texas.

  8. Thanks for the link Hell House, it was terrible what happened in the Ukraine famine, though It was not the first madmade famine, there have been many throughout history. The Bengal famine of 1770 was a catastrophic famine that between 1769 and 1773 affected the lower Gangetic plain of India. The famine is supposed to have caused the deaths of an estimated 10 million people, approximately one-third of the population at the time.

    Fault for the famine is now often ascribed to the British East India Company policies in Bengal. As a trading body, its first remit was to maximise its profits and with taxation rights the profits to be obtained from Bengal came from land tax as well as trade tariffs. As lands came under company control, the land tax was typically raised by 3 to 4 times what it had been – from 10-15% up to 50% of the value of the agricultural produce. In the first years of the rule of the British East India Company, the total land tax income was doubled and most of this revenue flowed out of the country. As the famine approached its height, in April of 1770, the Company announced that land tax for the following year was to be increased by 10%.

    The company is also criticised for forbidding the "hoarding" of rice. This prevented traders and dealers from laying in reserves that in other times would have tided the population over lean periods, as well as ordering the farmers to plant indigo instead of rice.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bengal_famine_of_1770

    I don't see why you may think that anyone here would like to ban you, the site is willing to debate all sorts of ideas (no matter how controversial) and political theories, there are few grudges held against posters whos opinions fall out side of the main stream. Though I do think that the topic of man-made famine is a little outside of the scope of this thread which is about gold.

    I agree with you about the long term effects of over poplualtion and perhaps when the world does reach peak oil then mabey the population will have to decrease, theres lots of other threads about it, heres link with a list of some from a search.

    http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...ghlite=peak+oil

    I also find this Dr. bartlett lecture on the subjects quite interesting available here http://globalpublicmedia.com/lectures/461 though I do think it may be best if we just stick to the subject of gold in this thread.

  9. It will be a long time before confescation but in a few years EVERY ONE will be selling everything they own to eat. look at the Ukrain in 1921.. MILLIONS starved THOUSANDS died with gold rings on there fingers. They had NOTHING and no one to burry them. Seriously though, they would swap thair dead children so they wouldnt have to eat thair own.

    The times to come, no one will be safe. People will give their houses away for a bag of chips. our world will crack cleen off. The righteous shall fall before the wicked, AND ALL OF CREATION SHALL TREMBLE BEFORE THE BURNING STANDARDS OF HELL.

    You aint seen nothing yet people. :(:o:lol::lol::lol:

    Could you paste a link to what happened in the Ukraine in 1921, I have not heard anything about it before and would like to find out more, thanks.

  10. WTF :blink: This is the most ludicrous comment I have ever read on the site. Nobody knows long term what will happen with gold or property. Property has always done well over the long term and at the end of the day you own your home and do not have to pay any rent. Capitol gains on gold are not tax free whereas they are on property (if you are owner occupier not BTL). You therefore need to make a lot more with gold to make the same gains if you are a higher rate tax payer.

    As with any investment, when everybody thinks it is a good idea to do it then you have probably missed the boat. I think this is happening with gold now. If gold was such a sure investment then all the banks and hedge funds etc would be putting all their money into it. I have no idea what gold will actually do in the future but it is by no means guaranteed.

    Yes I do agree it was an over bullish thing to say, but given that the question has only two optioins, borrow to invest in gold or property you then have to factor in the price and market position of the two assets at this momet in time. Housing, vastly over valued like stocks were aroung the years 2000. Gold, despite the recent rises, if compared with other over valued asset classes, is still quite good value.

    Yes property has always done well, gold has always done well, stocks and shares have always done well but it is about at what point in the market you buy an asset, would you buy dot com shares pre 2000 on the basis that stocks always go up?

    The question is also states that you Would not could get 80-90% of the cost of the property paid for you, therefore in the question set, the Capitol gains example you have given does not apply.

    True nothing is guaranteed, no one can predict the future, but we can look at the recent past to predict what could happen: eg you go up a hill you may then expect to go down at some point.

    Gold does well when there is high inflation.

    Gold cannot be created out of nothing, there is a limited supply

    Housing can be made, and if the house prices remain high whats to stop property developers building as many houses at the market will take. There could be double the amount of property in 15 years time.

    Interest rates are at this moments still very low, this will not continue for the next 25 year.

    Unemployment has an effect of house prices.

    When buy to let speculators enter the gold market (with a gold only ever goes up mentality) then that will be the time to sell gold slowly.

    ------Never borrow to invest------

  11. 'This leads to an estimate of the total ice volume of 0.087 ± 0.010 X 10 6 km3 and a sea level rise equivalent of 0.241 ± 0.026 m. The glaciers and ice caps contribute 41% and 59% to these estimates respectively.' (Raper and Braithwaite, 2005)

    'The estimate of sea level rise caused by melt water from non-polar glaciers is only 0.046 +/- 0.026 meters per hundred years (Meier, 1984). Although the balance is very uncertain, it is thought that the combined contribution from the meltin ice from greenland and antarctica to sea level rise is small (Van der Veen, 1988)'

    'When added to the thermal expansion components, our total sea level rise scenario for 2050 for a temperature rise of 3.0°C (1.5°C to 4.5°C) is about 0.35 m (0.15 and 0.70 m).' - (Churche et al, 1990)

    In your above statement I have high-lighted in bold the part which you need to pay more attention to.

    I suggest you start with these and follow the references off them. Or you could just go to Wiki, and base your belief system on what some internet geek tells you.

    I will gladly, can you please put the links there so that I may read them properly for you.

  12. This may come as a shock but I have heard that 83% of all of our oil comes STILL from the North Sea. The war in Iraq may be right or wrong, personally I couldnt give damn, ut wasnt it all to do with oil, so where the dividend. We shoudl be bathing in the stuff at 23.9 a litre not paying record prices.

    I recently went to Brunei where I paid a record 10p a litre (equivalient), I filled up an Izuzu Trooper Citizen (70 litre tank for £7)

    Whats wrong with this picture.

    Just think was the world oil price would be at if we were not getting 2 million barrels oil a day from Iraq, the demand would outstrip supply. $70 - $100 for a barrel is dirt cheap, even $500 it's still cheap when you think what you can do with that amount of energy, imagine trying to get a guy with a horse drawn carrage to take you and you family the length of the country, how much do you think that would cost?

    Here is a list of the average annual price of crude oil from 1949-2006 you can see the price change since 1998 at $10.97 a barrel

    http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflati...rices_Table.asp

  13. I have come to the conclusion that we can sustain huge increases in the price of housing for long into the future if you all follow my economic plan to stimulate the economy.

    Step 1, We all borrow lots of money

    Step 2, We buy JCB earth movers, spades, wheel barrows, shovels, 4x4s

    Step 3, We dig the biggest hole the world has ever seen

    Digging the hole would create tens of thousands of jobs, in the immediate hole vicinity, the people digging the hold would be on very high wages that would stimulate the local area, the house prices would boom and surrounding service economy jobs like transport, shops, restaurants, gyms, leisure complexes, car show rooms would all benefit. These extra non-hole related jobs would create increased economic benefits to the areas surrounding to the hole, leading to a demand for more housing, stimulating the building industry.

    All the equipment needed for hold digging would a also be an economic boom for other sections of the economy JBC manufactures, earth movers, spades etc.. that would spread the economic benefits from the hole all round the country. This would help stimulate house prices and keep the boom going.

    Step 4, We could then expand the hole digging program though out the entire UK

  14. I have seen a lot more than usual in the stockport, greater manchester area where I live, I also know at least four people looking to sell at the moment as they cannot afford the morgage repayments and these people got their houses a few years ago while they were still relatively cheap.

    I am sure that at this time of year there is always a lot of activity in the housing market compared to over the winter period, but I feel that the home information pack and rising interest rates have helped to push up the number of sellers in the markert.

    Well we all know how supply and demand works, but people tell me 'its different these days'

  15. I don't watch much TV these days, but with all this price inflation in London what has happened to the area where the soap east enders is set. I think its set in a fictionl borough called Walford and filmed in Watford.

    Just looking at the house prices in Watford on rRghtmove, why don't we see rich city type people in east enders? where are the buy to let investors? is that tosser Ian Beal a buy-to-let owner? he seems the perfect type.

    Where are all the two seater sports cars and 4x4s why dont the houses decore include knocked through living rooms dominated by plasma screens the size of a small country, with laminate floors streching into designer open plan kitchens, up the spiral staircase to the office converted loft living space with on-suit walk-in bathroom complete with spot lights. Through the french doors into the gardens of decking and gravel with exotic pot plants concealing barbeques and fountains.

    I've never been to Watford or Hertfordshire so don't know what the areas really like, but from up here in the north of England, watching the london property p0rn on tv, I don't see why the people in the fictional soap east enders are so poor and misrable all the time, can't they all get jobs as estate agents or work as phone bankers and benifit from the credit boom?

    Does anybody here live in Watford, if so what's it like?

  16. oh come on really - point out a single point in history when rents have dropped significiantly. Then if you find one, point one out where they have dropped during an inflationary period when gold traditionally appreciates. I would never say it can't happen, but it probably wont.

    IF I were to say it can't happen, then I would be a fool.

    I have no problem with anyone being bullish on anything - its just when they state it as fact its lunacy.

    YOU ARE STATEING AS A FACT THAT 80-90% OF THE PAYMENTS WOULD BE MADE BY SOMEBODY ELSE,ON YOUR BEHALF.

    This is something that you cannot predict, the rent level could stay exactly the same for the entire period, and you could be lucky enough to have the same person renting for the entire period, but interest rates could rise and you would not be able to force your tennant to pay the full 80-90% of the payments that you need to cover the morgage.

    Do you understand the flaws in your question?

    Do you understand the pros and cons of buying at the top of the market vs buying at the bottom?

    Do you understand that your question is based on an assumption about the economy in the future?

    Do you understand that borrowing to invest is lunacy?

    Nobody has to find links for anything as the question you have set is flawed in the first place, all the information is right there. Nobody is saying that rents will drop significantly, however you seem incapable of understanding that rents do not rise at the same rate as morgage interest payments, especially when the buy-to-let-owner has borrowed a sum to large by purchasing at the top of a housing market.

    Here is the link for interest rates from 1970 to present

    http://213.225.136.206/statistics/rates/baserate.pdf

    this is the link for inflation

    http://www.safalra.com/other/cumulative-uk-inflation/

    The point is that when gold is low relative to houses, gold can be considered a good investment and when houses are low compared to the price of gold, houses are the better investment. Is this really so hard to understand?

  17. Global sea levels can rise for many reasons including rebound from glaciation (less weight on the land so it rises and falls in different locations) and increasing sea temperatures (thermal expansion). However, the melting of the ice caps will do pretty much feck all to gobal sea levels, there just isnt enough ice in them to cuase a sea level change.

    I think that you will find that your theories about ice caps and sea levels are not valid, if you have some links to support them then there could be an interesting debate, as to the validity of the qualifications of the scientists that have come up with such theories, also the meaning of the term science could come under scruitiny.

    Here's some info from the wiki

    The Antarctic ice sheet covers about 98% of the Antarctic continent and is the largest single mass of ice on Earth. The total ice mass on the Earth covers an area of almost 14 million square km and contains 30 million cubic km of ice. Around 90% of that, or 27 million cubic km, is located in Antarctica. That is, approximately 61 percent of all fresh water on the Earth is held in the Antarctic ice sheet, an amount equivalent to 70 m of water in the world's oceans.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_ice_sheet

    If the entire 2.85 million km3 of ice were to melt, it would lead to a global sea level rise of 7.2 m

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland_ice_sheet

    But of course, the landlocked ice has to come from somewhere, so when the ice forms, sea levels fall. So levels only ever go back to the level they were. The melted ice was once sea water anyway ;) Think about it, its not rocket science.

    Yes, that's right the ice melts and the sea level rises, because the ice is on the land, if the ice were submerged under the sea then the sea level would not rise.

    It may not be rocket science, and I am sure that to you it makes perfect sense unfortunatly it has no basis in science or reality, please take a little time to look into it, theres plenty of credible info about it on the net, you will probably find everything you need at the wiki.

  18. People have took the trouble to answer the question Flick, as well as pointing out the shortcoming of the loaded question you have set.

    While it seems fair game for people to be critical of Financial Planner for being so bullish on Gold, this was in answer to yes or no question that has only two options Property buy to let, or Gold.

    Yes he probably should be more carful about predicting the future outcome of these assets, but lets remember that the thread was started with a question that made the following statement predicting the future of the buy to let property market and future intrest rates over 25 years.

    But, during this time, 80-90% of the repayments would be made by someone else, on your behalf.

    Would you take this deal?

  19. Yes, its quite fair to 'assume' that gold has the potential to rise over the next few years, given its relationship to other assets, like housing or the Dow Jones. Its not so much about predicting the future more like, looking at the recent trends and applying the lessons learnt historically to have a more accurate view of the economic picture ahead, rather than blindly believing for no genuine reason.

    Nobody can be certain about the future but we can look at the last few years and see rising money supply via the credit boom that will cause inflation. Commodities such as oil, corn and metals almost always do well in an inflationary period as they hold purchasing power.

    When you are at the bottom of a market you can assume that it has the potential to move up, and if at the top then expect it to move down. This is so much an act of clairvoyance more an application of experience and basic economic laws.

    In 1929 the Dow was worth 20 ounces of gold and now its worth 19 ounces of gold, so much for the record Dow at the moment.

    I also hear crystal ball prices are expected to rise sharply over the medium term.

  20. There are only two types of people could consider borrowing a good way to invest, one type would be a financial genius the other would be an financial idiot, and I ain't seen too many genius around of late.

    Now the most important factor that has been left out of this question, is at which point in the market you are investing?, at the top? The middle? or the bottom?

    If the top of the housing market coincides with the bottom in gold, then the choice is obvious and when the positions are reversed and the top of the gold market coincides with the bottom of the housing market the same applies.

    If an asset is a better investment can only be determined by its relationship with other assets in the market, also there are many other factors to consider

    During this time, the gold would be essentially useless to you, but after 25 years its all yours.

    But, during this time, 80-90% of the repayments would be made by someone else, on your behalf.

    Again this part must also be counted as a claim to tell the future, as there is no guarantee that the property will remain rented during the full term of the mortgage or even that the rent would pay 80-90% of the payments with interest rates being extremely low at this moment in time compared with the past 30 years.

    To answer the question, No, I would not take the deal, borrowing to invest is not a wise thing to do.

  21. Whether we need a crash or not is irrelevant. The point is that a large number of the early bears predicted a crash and (to date) got it horribly wrong.

    That aside, why on earth was the BoE's decision to keep "inflation low to stop a recession" madness? Surely that is the MPC's brief?

    Well yes there should have been a crash earlier after the 2001 stock market crash, if we had followed normal economic standards, however the idiots in control decided to lower intrest rates so low that it created an even bigger housing market bubble which has fed back into the economy with people spending their paper equity. THis in the long term will turn what should have been a mild corection/ recession possibly into something far worse and more damaging.

    Here read the link!

    http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,304...256664,00.html/

    Former governor Edward George said the Monetary Policy Committee "did not have much of a choice" in the matter.

    Bank tries to get it rightThe MPC members were battling to use interest rates to prevent the UK being dragged into a worldwide economic slump, he explained.

    Lord George - who headed the Bank for a decade until June 2003 - revealed that he knew the approach was not sustainable as he gave evidence to a committee of MPs.

    The terrorist attacks on the US in September 2001 caused a stock market crash in the US, and a sharp fall in the global markets.

    "We only had two alternative ways of sustaining demand and keeping the economy moving forward: One was public spending and the other was consumption.

    "We knew that we were having to stimulate consumer spending; we knew we had pushed it up to levels which couldn't possibly be sustained into the medium and long term.

    "But for the time being, if we had not done that the UK economy would have gone into recession just as has the United States.

    "That pushed up house prices, it increased household debt ... my legacy to the MPC if you like has been `sort that out'."

    "We tried very hard not to do more than we needed to keep within the inflation target limits but we knew that that was going to cause problems later on which are still with us."

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