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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by enrieb

  1. For the inside /living space yes but the issue that have been encountered concerning insulation/ventilation (i presume this is what Quicken was reffering to) are condensation between the skin of the container and the stud wall due to steel not being able to breath, and not so much the living space ,from what i can make out it becomes more of a problem if the outside of the container is no clad

    Trapped condensation will cause the container to rust sooner or later. This may seem a little in-depth, but if someone was going to invest a lot of money in building a home from a container, then they will want it to last as long as possible and not rust away after 5-10 years.

    I used to work as a shot blaster, so I have a bit of knowledge on the surface preparation and painting side of things. The life of the container would be prolonged by blasting it down to bare metal and spaying on an Iron Oxide paint primer. Use a good quality iron oxide primer, maybe a few layers, and then some other coating to go over that. The best quality paint jobs are usually done in a factory, where the environment is stable (temp, humidity) and where the surface preparation (shot blasting) is done properly, and the primer paint it applied as soon as possible after blasting. Less reputable shot blasting/painting firms will do a poor job of the initial shot blasting, because once it's painted you won't know for a few years until the paint starts to peel. They can also leave the shot blasted surface unpainted in poor condition for a day or two, after an hour tiny bits of rust will form on the metal but they are too small to be seen, but they will just paint over it with poor quality paint. Even thinking about the quality of steel the container is made from should be a consideration for long

    For insulation, the narrow boat forums probably have the best advice for price and long term knowledge of the benefits of different types of insulation. They seem to recommend Spray Foam insulation, and getting a reputable firm in to make sure it is done properly. They also use some type of tar/bitumen coating on the underside of the boat, this needs removing and reapplying every 5 years. I suppose it worth raising a container up to allow a flow of air to the underside to prevent condensation build up, another factor is where you place it. At the bottom of a slope or valley is where the air will be most humid.


  2. Hugh Best, LCP's investment director, said: "The average price in prime central London is now £1.5m, and has been growing at 9% a year, which we think is firmly sustainable. They have been growing at that level for 40 years and we see no reason for that to change. Mumzy got me a set of crayons and a Hello Kitty Ruler for my birthday, so I just drew a line. I also drew a doggie, but I forgot to put a tail on him"

    At a 9% growth rate, the average £1.5m flat will fetch £6.3m by 2030 and £36m by 2050. In the shorter term, LCP, which has invested about £600m in London property, reckons speculators will earn even more – about 14% a year – over the next five years.

  3. So does "not that there really was ever any doubt about what was going to happen" mean the videos aren't really "shocking".

    Yup, that's why i deliberately left the word "shocking" out of the link title, i'm sure it was just used in the original as an emotional intensifier. It's one of those things that could blow up big time WW3, anew cold war or just fizzle into some posturing. There is no way NATO can get significant military into the location to counter posture. This is on Russia's borders, they can be there in a day, the response from Ukraine population will reveal whether it was a genuine popular revolution with mass support, or simply a western backed coup played out with the support of selective western media coverage.

  4. Let's be clear, they haven't tapered and the next FOMC meeting is a long way off. I'm surprised rates haven't gaped up and the stock market sold off, it makes me concerned they have more fingers than pies, but I think we all know how this ends.

    Yeah, Like I told you, I can't afford it right now, but next January when I get paid I will Taper, If you just keep buying my treasury bonds I will pay you back double.

  5. I knew this guy from the pub a few years ago, and he would always want to borrow £10 near the end of the weekend on sunday night. He would promise to pay it back the next friday when he got paid, he would then not mention it for 3-4 weeks, if you reminded him he would promise to pay it the following Friday. Then when it came to a Sunday night and he was still short of money, he would say. Oh I still owe you £10, If you can lend me another £10 I can pay you £20 back on Friday when I get paid"

    Strangely enough he would usually pay the £20 within 1 or 2 weeks without any prompting. Although then, the whole cycle would begin again. he would pretty much permanantly owe on average £10 a week to each person who would fall for the trick.

    I pretty much see The Fed's promise to taper as the same scam on a larger scale, even if they do pay back a little, they will only use it as a proof of creditworthiness to borrow/print more money.

  6. So JP Morgan is patenting something that makes them redundant? I think "similarities" is being used in the loosest of senses ! :lol:

    We are witnessing just the first of the train of Bitcoin fore shocks. They're going to get bigger and bigger!

    I suppose it's a bit like when banks and corporations were issuing their own Scripts in the USA. I like the idea of Bitcoin, but the rate it's gone up by recently strikes me as another outlet for the inflation bubble, like the 'Uk, London Housing market'* it's like an inflation hernia for currency.

    * 'Uk, London Housing Market'* (UK,LHM) I think this a term we should start using more often to more accurately describe what's really going on in this small but high profile segment of the Wider Uk Housing Market (WUK,HM). It's basically being used as an international financial investment/currency play, and has little to do with the realities of the Wider Uk Housing Market, which is related to credit availability and average wages. Can anyone think of better acronyms?

  7. Basically everyone is saying house prices are too high and compared to salary multiples i completely agree, the premise of my argument is so what! What we fail to see us that we are becoming poor as a nation.

    Just like the welfare state/nhs will fail because we can no longer afford to pay for it we as a nation are going to be unable to afford good quality housing with all the mod cons! Just because we are used to being able to afford something in the past does not mean we will be able to do so in the future. If wage arbitration and globalisation mean that we can only have average salaries of 25k, then we can only really afford say 65k houses, i think even 3x multiples will soon be unaffordable due to inflation of essential items. We are a poor nation with a bloated financial sector that will collapse and not a large enough productive economy to sustain the standard of living inc housing that we are used to so the future will be kit houses on small plots! Get over it nobody owes us a high standard if living it has to be earn't and we ain't doing that.

    Yes, wages have not risen enough for the majority, but if wages were to be doubled for everyone overnight, house prices would also double. It's the amount of credit being offered that is out of balance, this is what's pushing up house prices. Some people are dumb enough to take out 5-6 times income mortgages, and they outbid others for the houses. The sensible people are not willing to get that much into debt, at the moment the government have been protecting the people who over paid for houses, because the banks are in trouble, as soon as the banks rebuild their balance sheets normal business practices can resume.

  8. Surely the 'cheapness' of nuclear power is only a by product of cheap oil. I remember reading about how it takes 5000 tones of mining to produce 1 ton of usable raw uranium, and once the good mines are exhausted it will be 10,000 tones for 1 ton. The cost of mining uranium is strongly related to the cost of energy/oil because it takes energy to get uranium out of the ground. Also the long tern costs of decommissioning and storing waste are forced onto the tax payer.

    I'm not anti nuclear, I see it as part of the energy solution, but it's not some magic elixir of energy as others would have us believe.

  9. I have been watching every day, on right move, an area I would like to move to.

    I went to see a house, some 18 months ago advertised at a price of £325K, a look at the outside was enough for me not to pursue it, for that kind of dosh I expected better.

    It vanished from rightmove to appear weeks later at £310k. Ah! I thought if it came down again to £300k maybe it could be bought for £275, and worth a look.

    After 2 months of no takers it was removed again, only to reappear with a new EA at £329.900. Four weeks later it was STC. I'm now spitting feathers what dip sh%t was going to pay that price.

    Last week it vanished from the rightmove website for a day. Back on now for £340K

    Self doubt, questioning your own sanity during troubled times is something that only sane people do, those who lack the capacity to self reflect are often mentally unbalanced individuals.

  10. HPCers tend to get painted in the media as a bunch of swivel eyed loons (to steal someones phrase). However, I think a strong part of being a rounded human is to admit when you are wrong. I'll go first:

    1. Completely misread the ability of the UK gvt to avoid house price collapse post GFC phase 1

    2. faied to see the equities run up over the past 12 months (in fact, liquidated my FTSE EFT at +7% from fear the market would collapse.)

    3. failed to see the downwards leg in gold; no financial loss but if I'd had a crystal ball could have bought and then sold at peak to add to the house buy fund

    Looking at all of these it seems I am too cautious to believe the ability of markets and governments to create gains despite generally negative fundamentals. I should learn from this.

    Anyone else?

    I completely disagree, and it's not because I cannot admit when I am wrong, I'm wrong frequently and admit it. The situations you are describing are now in hindsight. The growth and seriousness of the credit bubble was accurately predicted by many on HPC, how the credit bubble would unwind was a matter of some debate with wildly different predictions, from deflation to inflation, some bi-flation, people even predicted that a greater credit bubble would be created. How it ends no-one can know, what we do know is the seriousness of the financial situation, and that's not gone away, if anything it's being made worse by the current polices.

    How many of the bubble surfers admitted they were wrong? they have simply hid away from the debate, only to reappear when a piece of data supports their perpetual bubble world view.

    A drunk person offers me a lift home from the pub in a car, and I refuse to get in because of the risk that it will crash, the car drives off at 70mph in a 30mph zone, racing through red lights. If through sheer luck and the driving skill of other road users, the drunk driver makes it home safely, it does not make my decision wrong, even in hindsight, because the risk is still high. If the drunk does not suffer any consequences from the risk that have taken then they will simply repeat the high risk event.

    The fact that our drunk economy has not yet crashed as hard as Greece, Iceland, Cyprus, Spain etc.. is just pure luck and tolerance of the other road users. The economic problems, debt, trade imbalances, lack of production all remain and are being made worse by the day, this is the important factor, not wether the economy gets inflation, deflation etc.. whether the drunk crashes into a wall, a car, slips off the road, jack knifes, gets hit from the side etc..

    1: Completely misread the ability of the UK gvt to avoid house price collapse post GFC phase 1

    The UK government has devalued the currency to mitigate the fall in the paper value of house prices to protect the banks, due to the tolerance of the bond market. Debasement of the currency was predicted by the HPC goldbugs, the tolerance of the international bond markets is was not predicted and is temporary.

    [2]faied to see the equities run up over the past 12 months (in fact, liquidated my FTSE EFT at +7% from fear the market would collapse.)

    Those that predicted that the government would try to reinflate have always stated that newly printed money would find its way into different asset classes. Are stocks really that high or are we just seeing rises due to devaluation of the currency?

    [3]failed to see the downwards leg in gold; no financial loss but if I'd had a crystal ball could have bought and then sold at peak to add to the house buy fund

    Gold goes up and down because it's traded all the time, It's a highly liquid asset, unlike houses. Many Goldbugs predict big downward legs in gold, most of it comes from the paper gold market. Overall the same problems that caused people to seek safety in gold remain at large or are being exacerbated. If you had a crystal ball you could make much more money in a casino or betting on horses.

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