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Posts posted by strbear

  1. Ms Earley added: "The turmoil in credit markets strengthens the case of the doves on the Committee as the MPC will be reluctant to do anything to add uncertainty while the markets remain volatile."
    The forecast came despite the lender's latest survey revealing that house prices climbed an average of 0.6pc across the UK this month, up from 0.1pc last month. However, the annual rate of inflation slowed to 9.6pc from 9.9pc.

    Well thats it then - HPC postponed - lets all go home!


  2. Ah Thanks Mr Yogi - Bulltrader - where should I go to get some cheap bulls - do I buy direct from the farmer or go an auction?

    Anyway that wasn't my point - I too look at watches (newer rather than old) and the 2nd hand market in Rolex's, Omega's, IWC's etc is definitely coming undone - as are the prices for nice 2nd hand cars (911s, 7 series etc etc) and Harleys - I think it is people realising they can't afford the repayments and looking for a firesales - only my view though


    PS - How do you tell a good bull from a bad bull? B)

  3. Applying “harsh but plausible” assumptions to his model for investment bank profits, he said that they could fall from $49.5 billion (£24.5 billion) in the first half to $14.6 billion in the second.

    £14Bn in bonuses - I think not - unemployment - I think yes!



  4. Interesting response to the LA Land blog in the LA Times

    The median income for a single California wage earner is about the same as the national average, around $43,000, so even an average California couple can't afford these houses (and given the descriptions, should be given mental health counseling for even trying). It's impossible for median incomes to be so out of line with prices everywhere in the state, this is simply the wrong neighborhood for the average buyer to be looking. And any upper-middle class buyer who pays these kind of prices for these dinky houses rather than buying a summer home in the Yucatan and banking the cash is a fool. The key to getting the housing market under control is to STOP OVERPAYING. The sellers must obey the market eventually...

    Looks like we have a fellowship building across the globe!



  5. The broader market also tumbled, although all major indexes still are above the lows they made the week of Aug. 13. One glaring exception: Stocks of some home builders fell to new multiyear lows today, battered by a report that showed an index of U.S. home prices fell 3.2% in the second quarter from a year earlier.
    One market sector that can't get a rate cut soon enough: home builders. Among the stocks falling to new multiyear lows today were KB Home, down $1.67 to $28.52; Centex Corp., down $2.13 to $28.15; and Lennar Corp., down $1.33 to $27.23.

    Any suggestions?

    Article in LA Times at http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-mark...=la-home-center


  6. I can trump all of that - the 'people' working for estate agents of the Foxtons variety will have to get real jobs which means you might end up working with them. I'd have to think about it but viral encephalitis sounds like a less unpleasant option.

    Oh my god - thats awful - I'd rather have Nile fever - to work with arrogant, characterless chinless wonders is a fate worse than death - to be fair we're in a foxtons free zone here in yorkshire - one of the primary reasons I moved up here! Leeds is however full of £10K millionaires - ie they have a suit and earn 10K pa but like to think they are millionaires - they are in all the "it" bars but can only afford one drink - well thats a life in financial services!


  7. We often spend minutes/hours/days/weeks/months/years (RB!) discussing the same issues from every conceivable angle - well I think I've found a new topic for once. Whats the worst side effect of HPC?

    I'll open with West Nile Virus!

    Houses abandoned to foreclosure are beginning to breed trouble, adding neighbors to the growing ranks of victims.

    Stagnant swimming pools spawn mosquitoes, which can carry the potentially deadly West Nile virus. Empty rooms lure squatters and vandals. And brown lawns and dead vegetation are creating eyesores in well-tended neighborhoods.

    So a possible side effect of HPC is West Nile Virus

    The first is an asymptomatic infection; the second is a mild febrile syndrome termed West Nile Fever;[1] the third is a neuroinvasive disease termed West Nile meningitis or encephalitis.
    Neuroinvasive sounds nasty to me!

    Thanks to Wikipedia and the LA Times http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-vaca...=la-home-center

    Who wants to raise the stakes


  8. http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle2337083.ece

    So what is the most likely outcome?

    Somewhere in the middling scenario looks most probable, but we are in unknown territory. Never in capitalist history has so much debt been taken on by so many people. Never have the securities backed by that debt been shaped, stretched, packaged and hedged in such complex, opaque ways. Hollywood is a model of simplicity and transparency compared with the global money markets: nobody knows anything.

    The other big risk is that the downturn in the US housing market proves longer and deeper than forecast. Americans are already facing the biggest reduction in their wealth levels since the Great Depression. That is if house prices fall by only 10 per cent.
    But don’t financial institutions have to report their best estimates of any losses to shareholders at once?

    Not always and not immediately. Listed banks and other institutions are obliged to alert the stock market only if there is a “material” change in their profit prospects. Material is generally interpreted as a change of 10 per cent or more. For a bank such as Barclays, for example, which made £7.1 billion before tax last year, it could, in theory, sustain losses of up to £700 million and not feel obliged to inform shareholders immediately.

    Even the middle ground is bearish - sentiment has changed


  9. Home Depot's board yesterday agreed to sell Home Depot Supply for $8.5 billion to Bain Capital, Carlyle Group and Clayton, Dubilier & Rice, about 18% less than the price hammered out in June when the buyout boom was at its peak.

    In addition, Home Depot itself will hold about 12.5% of the unit's equity, people familiar with the matter said, and guarantee some of the debt issued by the banks to finance the acquisition.

    Perhaps this is the start of reality?


  10. GOM

    Welcome back - as for what you have missed, well its been a rollercoaster few weeks - great bearfest week with the credit crunch followed by a quiet week with the assumption that the Fed are going to bail them out - many funds looking dodgy (some went down, some others are hanging in by the skin of their teeth) and even the outlook for the major banks is not good - question is who is holding the parcel now the music has stopped?

    Currently looks like Germany (one or two banks had to be rescued) but many are betting on Barclays being struck pretty bad here. We've had Black Monday thru Sunday here but, whilst its been pretty grey its never really got to black - but I think you'll see a change of sentiment on here and in the press - actually your view on the change of sentiment in the press might be useful given you've been away for a while.

    Where abouts have you moved to? - still Wakie I presume,

    Welcome back and good hunting



  11. Si1

    I've noticed this rise in run down properties too - I thnk rather than flippers it is the local developers getting rid of their stock that they were going to develop either because they don't see the future margins making it worthwhile OR (and I'm hoping here) that they are highly leveraged, can't sell existing developed properties so are having to sell undeveloped stock as they can't afford the repayments on it whilst it's sat there not earning money.

    Lets hope that's right - go look at the new developments and they are not selling at all



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