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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by strbear

  1. News item from Bloomberg News: "New foreclosures almost quadrupled in Los Angeles and doubled in Miami in the second quarter, with as much as $5 billion worth of loans going bad in L.A. alone, the onine real estate data company PropertyShark.com reported."

    Sorry I went all Eric for a second there!

    The number of homes scheduled for auction in Los Angeles rose 14,505 compared with 3,797 in the same period a year earlier, PropertyShark said... 'The foreclosure chart for Los Angeles is unfortunately starting to look like a ski jump,' Adina Dumitru, a member of PropertyShark's foreclosure products team, said in the statement."




  2. Thousands would have wanted to gnaw their hands off their arms in frustration on reading it, but I've since researched the topic and concluded that there is no need to fret, not least because there are conflicting reports about the state of the rental market. Data from Hometrack, for instance, shows that, for Britain as a whole, rents for two to three-bedroom dwellings are actually two thirds of mortgage costs. In short, renting remains a realistic and cheaper alternative to owning for most people, in many parts of the country.

    I am a fan of this man - there is always a light hearted look at life in this world that has become far too serious.

    But the bleakest thing about the mania for home ownership is how it has trapped millions into dysfunctional patterns of earning and consumption. People buy the most expensive property they can afford, commit themselves to spending the best years of their lives working to pay for it, and then take on even more debt to maintain it, allowing loans to dictate what jobs they take, where they educate their children, and in some cases, who they marry and remain married to.

    It's a crap way of living your life

    Read the rest and have a smile at http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life...icle4242934.ece




    Edited to include 2nd quote!

  3. HSBC, the bank that launched a "rescue" mortgage for homeowners, is now forcing the same borrowers to pay arrangement fees of up to nearly £10,000 for a loan, Times Online has learnt.

    It has emerged that borrowers applying for a 4.79 per cent rate on a £250,000 mortgage now have to pay an arrangement fee 35 per cent higher than before, up from £5,000 to £7,699.

    For existing HSBC customers who can take out larger loans of up to £500,000, the maximum fee rises to an astonishing £9,999.

    Just in from the Times


    Well all the mortgage resets will be fine then . . . . .



  4. B)

    Thanks for that info. I just want to get back into luvviedom, hang around with Hollywood babes and talk about Plato, Aristotle and Jesus with them. Or something like that.

    Dare I say they'll be more interested in contracts, "Cristal" and something to "assist" the evening pass by - perhaps by inhalation through the nose. All that said SM is one hell of a place to hang out - just take your Prius, it will get you anywhere.



  5. You don't have any info on Santa Monica do you - that's where all the Hollywood luvvies live. Wouldn't mind a place there myself.

    Hi TMT,

    We're looking to buy out in LA (hence all my posts about it!).

    Unfortunately Santa Monica is a bit like Knightsbridge, its always been very expensive and whilst it has stopped climbing it hasn't started really falling yet (sure there are some foreclosures but as a % its having a smaller impact). You can see lots more details on SM prices by reading Peter Villes blog in the LA Times http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2008/06/index.html - his wife wants to live in SM and he says they can't afford it!

    Another good source of info is http://westside-bubble.blogspot.com.

    Most of the luvvies live in Pacific Palisades (just North of SM), in SM north of Montana or in the hills.

    Oh and they have a heatwave at the moment - why aren't I there?

    Keep smiling


  6. «

    I ran some numbers on ZIP Codes with the biggest year-over-year declines in median price paid. Here's a partial list of the 40%-and-more club:

    ZIP Code Location May '07 May '08 % change

    90059 Los Angeles $410,000 $197,500 -51.8%

    90002 Los Angeles $400,363 $207,500 -48.2%

    93550 Palmdale $315,000 $170,000 -46.0%

    90222 Compton $360,000 $200,000 -44.4%

    90534 Lancaster $275,000 $154,750 -43.7%

    90041 Los Angeles $670,000 $377,000 -43.7%

    91040 Sunland $680,000 $386,000 -43.2%

    91042 Tujunga $619,000 $355,000 -42.6%

    Coming to an area near you soon, no really, it will. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .




  7. Southern California's housing market took another beating last month as median prices fell an average of 27% from a year ago -- the sharpest drop in at least 20 years. The median home sale price in six Southern California counties was $370,000, down from $505,000 a year earlier, according to DataQuick Information Systems. DataQuick said that was the biggest annual decline it has recorded since it began tracking prices in 1988.

    The last time the median was lower was in March 2004, when it was $364,000.

    Buyers are being very aggressive in the offers they are writing," said Lynette Williams of Re/Max in Pasadena. "They are hearing about foreclosures, hearing prices are dropping and feeling that if they wait long enough the seller is going to come down in price."

    Its only a matter of time till these figures are from the UK . . . .


    Sleep tight & dream


  8. Had a look at houseprices.co.uk for the original property in this thread.

    It was bought for £500K in April 06 - initially they were trying to double the price and are now settling for a 50% uplift.

    Maybe thats why (if they had a reasoanble deposit) they can afford to rent it for so little - the other option of course is that thats all it will rent for in the North East market?



  9. Did you guess $10Bn - if not you were wrong!

    $10Bn - that puts this in some perspective.

    And when they come to be re-sold 97% do not sell !!!!!!!

    News item from ForeclosureRadar.com, via Bloomberg: "California homes representing more than $10 billion of defaulted mortgages were repossessed last month as more than 97 percent of foreclosed properties failed to sell at auction, research company ForeclosureRadar said."

    From the LA Times http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/?tr...ealestate-blogs

    Makes you think,



  10. Lepista,

    If you are moving from elsewhere you will be pleasantly surprised by the traffic which means a reasonable commute (under an hour) makes even Harrogate possible. Obviously if petrol / diesel is at £2 per gallon or you have strong green credentials then you may not wish to consider this.

    Personally the North York Moors are favourite - Pickering / Whitby are all pleasant enough, you could try Ripon with some lovely villages nearby or head to the North and try Newcastle - a great place to live.

    Good luck, you won't regret it.



  11. Shares in Barratt Developments subsided another 20p to a 15-year low of 120¾p amid mounting fears that it will have to launch a rights issue before its full-year results next month.

    The latest prop was pulled from under the troubled builder by the RICS survey that showed house sales falling to a 30-year low. That news prompted investors to conclude that Barratt’s management will be forced to write down the value of its land-bank still further, triggering a fund-raising, since its banks can call in their loans if Barratt’s debts amount to more than 85 per cent of the value of the assets. That ratio was already reckoned to be about 80 per cent.

    See more at http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle4101110.ece

    This is all unwinding pretty quickly!



  12. Small article in the FT - Banks have approved corporate loans for $6 Trillion that have yet to be taken - and with rights issues & other equity deals becoming more difficult they think that corporates are going to start taking them. And the banks can't say no!!!!!!!

    Analysts at Citigroup estimate that the global banking industry has committed to lend about $6,000bn to corporations that have not yet drawn down the loans – double the amount outstanding in 2003. The commitments represent a potential additional strain on banks’ reserves as they attempt to rebuild their capital in the wake of the crisis in the US mortgage market.

    In spite of the market turmoil and slowdown in the global economy, corporate lending volumes have in recent months accelerated sharply in the US, Europe and the United Kingdom.

    Given that most banks are being more careful about new lending, the Citigroup analysts argue that a large proportion of this growth might be involuntary, as companies draw on previous loan commitments.

    However, based on an analysis of UK loan data since the early 1970s, Citigroup estimates that corporate lending tends to accelerate in the two years before a recession. The growth in corporate lending contrasts with the decline in lending to consumers.

    Make your own mind up - article at http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a3a0f0ba-3650-11...00779fd2ac.html



  13. Lehman Brothers plunged to a loss of $2.8bn in the second quarter, the Wall Street bank said on Monday, as it outlined plans to strengthen its balance sheet by raising $6bn in common and preferred stock.

    The loss, Lehman’s first as a public company and far greater than most analysts had forecast, was triggered by marking to market the bank’s portfolio of complex debt securities, and by losses on proprietary trading positions. The bank also lost money as hedging contracts designed to cushion its exposure to the financial crisis went awry.


    And they are one of the banks "unaffected" by the credit crisis!

    Enjoy the day


  14. "Lucky enough to own a house value currently 260,000. How is 13000 pound less value a 'plunge'????

    chris, Bagshot, Surrey"

    I saw this in the comments. Got really angry and wanted to slap the bloke but then just laughed. What a complete clown, these people just have no concept.

    I await the day Chris from Bagshot says

    "Lucky enough to own a house value currently 260,000. How is 130,000 pound less value a 'plunge'????

    It won't be long now - have a nice day,



  15. We were 18 months behind at one point. I think we are closing in fast and soon the UK housing market team Bob Sleigh will be set to overtake its US rival. (Hang on this is Bob Sleigh, and there only one narrow track, how do we overtake? )

    But generally housing swings in the UK are much larger than in the US, so if they are down 14% in one year, I think we'll top that. It strange how what the UK property pundits use to justify higher prices (we are a small island, rising population through immigration, less over supply etc etc) always turns out to unsustainable and hence is our Achilles heal.

    As ever the countrywide number doesn't show the whole picture - large chunks of the US are down far more than 14% whilst others down far less

    The Case-Shiller report, which analyzes repeat sales of the same homes in large U.S. cities, shows the housing slump continues to be most pronounced in large western cities. The five biggest annual declines in price in March:

    Las Vegas down 25.9%

    Miami down 24.6%

    Phoenix down 23.0%

    Los Angeles down 21.7%

    San Diego down 20.5%



  16. From LA Times

    "REO homes (bank shorthand for "real estate owned") that are in good condition and listed at $300,000 or less are drawing as many as 15 to 20 bids from home buyers and investors looking for bargains, area real estate agents report," Dinah Eng reports.

    --"Right now, anything under $300,000 is a hot price," according to Century 21 Wright G.M. Earl Bonawitz, who is based in Temecula.

    --"A $650,000 to $700,000 appraisal a year ago in some areas is now worth about $350,000," Bonawitz said. If you are scoring at home, that's a discount from previous appraised price of up to 50%."


    So is 50% the magic number when demand equals supply?

    Enjoy the sunshine


  17. I was also looking at 2010 for a glut of high end performance second hand cars like Land Rover Sports, Porsche Cayennes etc. hitting the market. I assume there will be Bentley Continentals galore as well, but they might remain a little pricey :-)

    Intersting comment - I've been following the prices of cars like these waiting for a bargain - on autotrader there is an 04 Continental GT with 24,000 miles for £40K - thats about £18K pa (out of taxed income) depreciation!

    I'm waiting for a £40K AM Vanquish but thats getting closer week by week too!



  18. News from the LA Times - it appears that the "immune" top end market ($1M plus) is now starting to feel the same pain as the low end.

    Median sale prices fell by 13% in Beverly Hills in April, compared with the same month last year. Rancho Palos Verdes dropped 18% over the same period, while Newport Beach's 92660 ZIP Code took a 34% hit, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

    These are the prime LA / Orange County areas similar to Kensington

    Foreclosures, which had been almost unheard of in high-end markets a year ago, now account for a substantial share of listings. In Coto de Caza, where the average listing price is $2 million, 17% of the 167 homes for sale are either foreclosures or "short sales," in which the listing price is below the amount owed on the property, Thomas said.

    In Mission Viejo and Laguna Hills, Thomas added, foreclosures and short sales make up more than 40% of the homes for sale. Elsewhere in Orange County, "there is tremendous activity below $500,000," Thomas said.

    Things are different this time - no really they are - they are going to be much worse!


    Enjoy the day, its nice and sunny up here




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