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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by strbear

  1. Article in Today's LA Times - seems no one is too sure what the true level of foreclosures really is - good news for Bears though is that Dataquick (the numbers often quoted on this site) are way under!

    After four years of boom, the market in California last year definitely turned queasy. But RealtyTrac's numbers show a full-fledged crisis, with 142,429 foreclosure filings — one for every 86 households in the state, the company said in a February new release.

    DataQuick reported less than a tenth of that total: 12,672 foreclosures.

    "The RealtyTrac data is overstated, but no way there were only 13,000 foreclosures," Zandi said.

    His own data, based on a random sample of 5% of the consumer credit files assembled by data collection firm Equifax Inc., show 56,747 first-mortgage loan defaults in California last year.

    Full article at http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-fore...a-home-business

  2. Interesting article in today's Sunday Times.

    Instead it is the Spanish one that is worrying. The whole buy-abroad boom has been predicated on one simple promise: you cannot lose with property.

    But the truth is that you can — just ask the would-be sellers on the Costas. With house prices having risen well over 250% across the country over the past decade, it never occurred to them that they might have trouble selling. But that is exactly what has transpired.


  3. "Sweeping mortgage bailout unlikely - Plans floated so far suggest most in danger of foreclosure won't get government help."

    Interesting article in the LA Times today about State and Federal support for homes that enter foreclosure - what is frightening are the potential numbers - 460,000 in CA and 2.4M nationwide perceived at risk


    You may need to register to see the full article.

    But don't worry - it can't happen here - interest rates are too low!

  4. The Telegraph article is also very hawkish

    Bank of England Governor Mervyn King has warned that 14-year highs in the money supply could prefigure consistently higher inflation over the next three to five years.
    Mr King added that he was not concerned about the economic effects of a small fall in house prices. He said: "If there was a very large fall in house prices - which all of us think is unlikely but none of us can rule out - then the consequences would be more severe. It would be a shock to economy as a whole. "

    even if his comments are from "Economics for Dummies"


  5. The comments are just starting to appear - have a read there is quite a backlash against the article!

    I like this comment

    I'm just a simple engineer but if I designed

    aircraft using the same techniques property

    "experts" use to determine whats happening in

    the market we'd probably end up in the same

    place - a crash!

    Whats happening in less than 0.25% of the

    marketplace is not representative of the market

    - its the froth on the bubble. The new paradigm

    the "experts" are asking us to believe isn't fact -

    its NOT different this time - house prices are no

    longer connected to income but to the highest

    levels of personal debt ever.

    Want to know where the market's going? Read

    the front page of today's New York Times and

    you'll see - fundamentals are fundamental after


    If the property experts are professionals they

    should have no problem letting you reclaim your

    negative equity from their professional indemnity

    insurance. Will they? I don't think so and thats

    all you need to know.

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