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strbear

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Posts posted by strbear

  1. Like many I've been on this site for years and, in that time, I have come to wonder if I have it wrong and actually property will continue to be sold for much more than I think it can possibly be worth. But . . . . . .

    I am coming across more properties that, whilst still overvalued in my opinion, are starting to become more realistic - to me its probably a 40-50% drop thats needs to make it so. But whilst looking today, I saw this which is in a nice development in a part of "gentrified" West Yorkshire

    Link to rightmove

    Link to 2007 sale price

    - and its up with a

    60%

    fall over the 2007 last sale price. Thats a cash buy !

    There is light and it will come to pass, glad I held on and hope to reassure a few others on here, keep the faith fellow bears!

    SB

  2. Americans' long love affair with debt is cooling off a bit. The Federal Reserve reported last week that the amount Americans owe on credit cards, auto loans and other forms of consumer loans dropped for a sixth straight month in July, the longest decline since 1991.

    It's the same story with home equity lines of credit, which financed a significant degree of consumer spending during the boom. The amount of money owed on these loans is down 3% from a peak of $1.13 trillion in mid-2007, according to the latest Fed figures.

    More at LA Times http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cove...0,1586518.story

  3. British banks are expected to follow their American counterparts, which are already having to bite the bullet on commercial real estate losses.

    A collapse in values of more than 40 per cent in less than two years means that almost every British commercial property loan granted since 2004 is under water, according to Savills, the estate agency.

    This gloomy forecast was reinforced by another report that confidence in global commercial property markets has deteriorated in the past three months as rents — regarded as a key property market indicator — dropped by the steepest amount on record.

    Half of the UK’s £300 billion commercial real estate loan book needs to be refinanced over the next two to three years, said Savills but, it adds, there is only capacity in the market to absorb £20 billion per year.

    Green shoots?I don't think so.

    More at http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6728251.ece

  4. From the LA times;

    Reporting from Costa Mesa and Washington -- Federal regulators today accused Countrywide Financial Corp. co-founder Angelo R. Mozilo of fraud and insider trading, saying he and two other executives failed to warn shareholders of the real risk of the mortgages the company was making at the height of the housing boom.

    A civil lawsuit filed by the Securities and Exchange Commission in federal court also accuses David Sambol, Countrywide's former president, and Eric Sieracki, its former chief financial officer, of fraud.

    Mozilo founded Countrywide in 1969 and was its chief executive until Bank of America Corp. purchased it last year as the giant home lender's financial condition deteriorated.

    "Angelo Mozilo had access to detailed and alarming information about Countrywide's operations," said Rosalind Tyson, director of the SEC's Los Angeles regional office. "He knew that Countrywide was gambling with increasingly risky mortgages and he kept those details from investors while he was actively taking his own chips off the table."

    More at http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-mozi...0,2270688.story

  5. Southern California home prices continued their decline in January, falling to 2002 price levels, a real estate research firm reported today.

    The January median sales price for all Southern California homes fell to $250,000, a 40% drop from the same month a year prior, according to San Diego based MDA DataQuick.

    According to DataQuick, the typical monthly mortgage payment that Southern California buyers committed themselves to paying was $1,081 last month, down from $1,239 the previous month, and down from $1,940 a year ago.

    So the question is - will we follow or is it different here?

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-home...0,7584906.story

    SB

  6. Oh all you doubters! Look closely and you can see how the business plan works.

    Champu is based in 3 Liverpool city centre flats knocked into one and the un-pronounceable crystal fitments and the animal print sofas were included in the repo flats - total cost £600!!!!! Stretch Limo bought in a pre-pack chauffeur firm for £300 and you're in business for under a grand!

    He will still go under though - £20K a month for suntan and hair plugs is a lot of champagne!

    SB

    <_<

  7. Sorry to burst your bubble but the truth is its not about the MBA its about the person behind it. On my course (top 5 school worldwide) there were some who were there to get the qualification and some who were there to learn - most didn't understand what was being put in front of them and learnt by wrote - others used it as a chance to see things from a different perspective.

    Those who need to go and get an MBA shouldn't be allowed to get one - I was selected to go and ( I feel at least) a much better person for it so thanks to my employer and £18,000 pounds ( ten years ago ) I feel good about life.

    Sleep tight

    SB

    <_<

  8. Guys

    Don't know where you are but if you wanted some sound advice on this and the career implications speak to Georgiana at Georgiana Head Recruitment in Leeds - all the advisers are Tax qualified and all they do is tax jobs - they advertise a high proportion of tax jobs nationally and are GOOD at what they do.

    Mention Steve & Cate said you should speak - hope that helps,,

    SB

  9. well it certainly doesn't add weight to any argument about the rich keeping prices high by snapping up the cheap properties.

    Bit miffed that the pound has done so badly that we ourselves can't hoover up all the "cheap" florida properties. But I reckon there will be some UK people selling off for what they can get in the next year or so.

    We're looking to buy on SoCal and it's true that prices have fallen dramatically (I would concur with 50% falls) in some areas of LA and Orange Counties. What is also true however is that some areas (the Westside (Santa Monica, Palisades etc) and the "real OC" (Newport Beach)) have barely started to fall - not saying they won't in time.

    What has plummeted, and it won't surprise anyone here, is the vast new tracts of land called the Inland Empire which were new build homes built by the 100,000 that were 2 hour commutes from the jobs and attractions of the area - generally bought by the poorer, priced out, high risk buyers that are now defaulting at rates of up to 1 in 2!

    Want a 2,500 sq ft house with 5 beds & a pool on a golf course - yours for £50K, want a starter home in Santa Monica and its still £500K!

    SB

  10. Hi

    Depends where in the country you are as to what is available.

    In Yorkshire you can get £5K from Business Link, you might get £3K from the local council and then access to government backed funding.

    If you're in Yorkshire PM me, if you are elsewhere do a grants search on the National Business Link website.

    Hope it helps

    SB

  11. Southern California home prices continued their decline at the end of 2008, closing the year at 2003 price levels, a real estate research firm reported today.

    The December median sales price for all Southern California homes fell to $278,000, a 35% drop from the same month a year prior, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick.

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hous...,0,946173.story

    Coming to a street near you in 12 months

    ;)

  12. suspect that includes repos sold at auction.

    In California, they have auctions but more important are the foreclosure (repossession) sales and "short sales" where the owner gets permission from the mortgage company to sell off the house for less than the value of the mortgage. On a recent trip to LA & Orange Counties, the number of short sales and foreclosures was amazing, in parts of Riverside County 30-50% of houses on a single street were foreclosure/short sales.

    As for the multiples to income, those who have some money think they are near the bottom (after 50% falls wouldn't you) so are buying whilst they can. How much further will it go?

    Answers on a postcard please!

    SB

  13. While residential property has been in decline for more than two years, with homes in some states losing half their value, the commercial property market has teetered on the brink of crisis. According to Foresight Analytics, the research firm, about $530 billion of commercial mortgages are due to be refinanced within three years, of which $160 billion will expire within the next 12 months. As the deadline for the refinancing of the debt looms, the American credit markets remain frozen.

    http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle5386020.ece

    Its a house of cards built on shifting sands in an earthquake zone - and thats the good news!

    Enjoy SB

  14. At the risk of being called a snob, if I see someone at work with a Rolex I immediately think "moneyed chav" and am on guard as to the quality of their input.

    Get something classic that doesn't shout WATCH! instead. Longines do some nice automatics, classic and understated.

    Its the same with all good things - eventually they become a status symbol because they excel at what they do rather than owned by people who appreciate what they do or how they are made.

    As an engineer, I own a Sea Dweller, because as a piece of engineering it excels. As an engineer I drive an S Class Mercedes because as a piece of engineering it excels. None of this makes me a chav ( I hope!). And yes I've owned a Triumph but now I'm looking for a Jota!

    When I see an exotic car I always think w**nker but in truth some of them will be enthusiasts who have worked hard, bought carefully and do it for the passion. Please, take 5 minutes to work out "chav or enthusiast"*

    And just to make sure I also have an Omega Seamaster - not bragging - just enthusiastic,

    Regards

    SB

    * I have reserved the IP rights to this show and approached Endemol - if successful I will buy that Vanquish S!

  15. Good point but we may well have a long way to go if California is an example of where this is heading.

    Median prices in the region, at $308,500, are at their lowest level since May 2003, and are 38.9% below their peak level of $505,000 reached in the spring and summer of 2007.

    -- Fifty percent of all homes sold in the region in September had been foreclosed on in the previous year. That's up from 12.6% a year ago.

    -- Foreclosure resales are highest in Riverside County (68.9% of all September sales), followed by San Bernardino (63.1%), San Diego (47.3%), Ventura (44.0%), Los Angeles (39.1%) and Orange County (36.8%).

    Nearly 70% of sales in the IE were repossessions!

    Having said that, they look at Britain as if we were amateurs!

    Funny how that 15% doesn't look so bad compared to the Southland's median price slide of 33% since last September, according to DMA DataQuick. From the peak last year, Southern California prices are down 39%.

    Both articles from the LA Times real estate blog at http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/200...-planet-an.html

    Have a nice day now!

    SB

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