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Capital Keith

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Everything posted by Capital Keith

  1. This is indicative too. But contradicts the NAR piece. Federal stats show US house price inflation at 7 per cent year on year - with only one state showing a fall (Michigan) and that 0.51 per cent. http://www.ofheo.gov/HPI.asp - follow the first link.
  2. These are the best stats we have. Follow the first link. http://www.ofheo.gov/HPI.asp Of all the US states only one has year-on-year decreases - Michigan, and that at -0.55 per cent. It's true that Massachusetts is down 0.49 per cent on the quarter, but is also up 1.11 per cent on the year and up over 50 per cent for 5 years. This isn't trollishness, this is reported Federal stats. Across the whole of the US the year-on-year rise is 7 per cent. A 7 per cent rise is not a crash. Rates of inflation are slowing - this is not the same as a crash.
  3. You are not correct about your friends' council tax either - £264 per month is £3,168 per annum well above the Band H rate for Mid Sussex Council which stands at £2,569 (or £215 per month). And no, his place is not in Band H. Is anything you say true?
  4. People don't live in shares. People who don't own shares do not have to rent them from those that own more than they need.
  5. Is a 7 per cent annual increase now a massive crash? Federal Stats presented here: http://www.ofheo.gov/media/pdf/3q06hpi.pdf Quotes from the summary: U.S. home prices rose in the third quarter of this year, but the rate of increase continued to slow and some areas experienced actual price declines. Nationally, home prices were 7.73 percent higher in the third quarter of 2006 than they were one year earlier. “House prices continued to rise through the third quarter in most of the country, but generally at only low or moderate rates,” said OFHEO Chief Economist Patrick Lawler. “The transition from sizzling markets to normal or weak markets has been orderly so far, and recent drops in interest rates lessen the likelihood that precipitous changes will occur.” And here's the stats showing House Price Appreciation From Same Quarter One Year Earlier 2006Q3 7.73% 2006Q2 10.34% 2006Q1 12.90% 2005Q4 13.36% 2005Q3 12.71% 2005Q2 13.94% 2005Q1 12.99% 2004Q4 11.88% 2004Q3 12.80%
  6. Lazy writing? Mortgage approvals falling off a cliff? Mortgage approvals - seasonally adjusted (see table for link if you prefer unadjusted). December 2004: 81,000 June 2005: 95,000 December 2005: 119,000 Jan 2006: 121,000 Feb 2006: 114,000 March 2006: 116,000 April 2006: 107,000 May 2006: 118,000 June 2006: 120,000 July 2006: 121,000 August 2006: 120,000 September 2006: 126,000 October 2006: 126,000 November 2006: 129,000 December 2006: 113,000 Not precisely falling off a cliff, in fact December's figure is not even a standard deviation below the year's average. Please don't slate journalists for being lazy and then swallow all the good news you hear, it really undermines the argument on this site. We don't need to resort to this nonsense to prove we are right! Here's the link: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/...jan/taba5.4.xls
  7. Are councillors being paid more than ever before? Do you even know what a councillor is? Change of direction? Yes please.
  8. Cutting and pasting from the jobs page of Wednesday's Guardian is not research. Having previously posted Boris's article on this when this came up last time, I suppose I should attach Polly Toynbees http://society.guardian.co.uk/futureforpub...1991467,00.html The comments that follow are interesting too.
  9. Where do you guys live? It's not like that on the High Barnet branch of the Northern Line, I can assure you.
  10. I'd agree with that and would add that Queens Park is a good family orientated area. I have recently moved from a little further south in Brondesbury Road, in the Queens Park area, and was very sorry to go. I used to walk up Kilburn High Road (which turns into Shoot Up Hill) to visit friends in West Hampstead, turning down Iverson Road, and never felt anything other than safe. Quite a good greasy spoon at the end of Iverson Road where the parade of shops is. Also close to Hampstead Heath, and you get to go celeb spotting in Belsize Park on the way. All of that applies to Queens Park, could you consider near there (also the Bakerloo is a much more useful line that the Jubilee, depending on where you have to get to of course). But there is this bar nearby, so should give you an idea of the clientele they get... http://www.brondesage.com/
  11. If something happens all the time it can hardly be a coincidence when it happens at the same moment as something else. Roger Bootle of Deloitte was calling a crash most weeks throughout 2004 and 2005.
  12. Mostly I'd agree, but the house could reasonably be expected to sell for more now than it did five years ago, and although all other houses have increased in value, that owner has at least kept pace with the market so that a bigger house may be attainable, whereas without a house to sell the larger one might be out of reach. Equating wealthier with being able to buy a nicer place to live does not seem unreasonable. But that would not make them wealthier day-to-day - except if they were on a fixed rate deal and had enjoyed inflationary wage increases.
  13. Two points. 1) Being a bull or bear is not like supporting a football team, you can change at any point as market conditions change. 2) The article is based on comments from a man from an organisation called "Debt on our Doorstep" - surely we can dismiss this as vested interest spin? Game, set and match? Funny sort of victory.
  14. Thanks for your reply - good stuff. I quoted the bit above, as I thought perhaps we should keep the Competition Commission and the Audit Commission and the Office of Fair Trade though - just to make sure the private sector really does behave itself once you've swept away public services. I seem to remember Robert "private sector" Maxwell not being all that good with other people's pensions.
  15. Sorry, was I not typing slowly enough? The band of your dwelling now, is determined by it's market value in 1991. Current prices have nothing to do with Council Tax band.
  16. Indeed, think. Had you followed my previous link you would have seen this sentence. The average council tax payable per dwelling is lower than the average Band D council tax because most dwellings are in Bands A to C, and because the average Band D figures - but not the average per dwelling figures - are before reductions due to discounts. The bands you post are correct, but Council Tax is based on 1991 prices. Any thing else I can help you with?
  17. It's a nice headline grabber, but it's an average and we all know what we think about those on here. How many households are there in the UK? Multiply that by £900 and let's see what we are dealing with. How much is paid in benefits of different types? Are we barking up the wrong tree. Are all public sector pensions paid by tax revenue, or is there some sort of investment vehicle too? Might be nice to know.
  18. These are the figures for expansion: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=1292 And am interesting take on it: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jh...2/02/do0202.xml (good old Boris!) As noted above lots of services have been contracted out and so employment for cleaning contractors, binmen etc etc etc are not included. He quite rightly mentions Gershon - I have provided a link in case people are too busy being productive to find it themselves: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk./media/B2C/1...eview120704.pdf It would also be useful to look at the PSA agreements (and to keep an eye open for the latest Comprehensive Spending Review), PSA targets are here: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/spending_rev...04_psaindex.cfm then you could see what it is that central Government is trying to achieve. For private sector productivity see here: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publication...rt/ir06aug3.pdf Come on private sector people (like me) - that really is not very good now is it? Get working! And don't forget it's a representative democracy - if you're "too busy" to talk to your councillor (as someone laughably said above) then you can hardly complain if the telepathy party don't get elected and your views are not taken into the equation. To see what Council Tax pays for, read your bill - if you have not done that, please don't waste our time (on this thread at least!) by claiming it's only bin emptying you pay for. Happy New Year! (one in which wage inflation catches HPI presumably - Keynes thought that was OK, so that's good enough for me - come to think of it he liked public spending too (where appropriate) didn't he?). Only it isn't, is it? It's £1,009. http://www.communities.gov.uk/index.asp?id=1136804 How tiresome.
  19. A little over 20 per cent of people working in "Inner London" earn over £50,000. Some way less than 20 per cent of people living in "Inner London" earn over £50,000 Type "Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings" into Google and go nuts on stats. You'll also notice 10 per cent earn less than £8,500 The median inner London residential income is around £26,000. The £26,000 average graduate salary figure for London is from the AGR and hence only reports from its 600 members who tend to be the large firms - like the utilities, who pay more than most. The Labour Force Survey will give you better figures. I could go on.
  20. This article is a reporter's interpretation of a press release issued by CEBR to highlight the launch of a new piece of research. By looking at their publications link, I would guess it is about the Housing Futures 2024 report. It is just conceivable that for your £250 you get rather more analysis than that presented by a www.viewlondon.co.uk reporter. I expect there may be some graphs too.
  21. Thanks! No one could be a psychologist and read this site! Satisficers has stuck in my vocabulary from school geography (possibly in the shifting cultivation lesson, although possibly not). The capital is indeed, 100% guaranteed, but it seems to me that its value is not - whereas a house is still a house and people may still pay to live in it. The value of the house may decrease (and perhaps chase rents down with it), but if you can survive the first two years and take inflationary payrise any loan becomes easier to service, and in any case, the value of the house only matters to the satisficer (again, sorry), when they want to sell, if they are planning to own it until they drop it really makes little difference to them (although if it takes it over IHT limit, then their children may be miffed to get less free money, but still surely they wouldn't complain? Interest rates will rise when inflation rises, but there is a delay, and you'll be lucky if your account holder passes all of the interest rate rises to the its savings rate. Indeed the tax man may take some, but 60 per cent of a lot is still more than 100 per cent of nothing!
  22. I struggle with this one a bit. If the landlord sold the house for £100,000 he would have £100,000. If he got 5 per cent on that what would he do with it? If he spends it then due to inflation although he may have beaten buy to letting for that year, his £100,000 is worth less the next year and so will be the 5 per cent yield he gets from it. Using current values may therefore be a little unfair, as although the asset is saleable, the rent is earned income from whatever money was spent at the point of purchase. Most people are satisficers not optimisers - it's less risky that way! If he keeps the house, he gets his rent to pay the interest, but still has the house - it does not erode at the rate of inflation, indeed you could expect rent to rise at the rate of inflation and he would not have to invest any more money. Admittedly it may need the odd bit of maintenance. Most of these posts assume IO mortgages. If the mortgage is repayment, he will own more of the house each year, until such time as he owns it all. And what is the point of saving? Often used to buy an annuity, which provides an income but no inheritance for the children. Is it feasible that landlords may be subsidising rent on repayment mortgages to ultimatley earn rent on a wholly owned asset, which can be left as inheritance, rather than disappearing on death to the delight of the pension provider? And no one has ever paid rent to live in a share or ingot. Just some rambling thoughts, comments warmly appreciated. CK
  23. Apologies if this is old news... http://www.dca.gov.uk/statistics/cjust.htm
  24. The difference may be between 'own front door' and 'blocks' as I spelled out in my original post. Similarly, flats remain on websites long after they are let or sold. Althernatively, you may live in a dump!
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